Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.		Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.		Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.		Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.		Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.		Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.		Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.		Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.		Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.		Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.		Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.		Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.		Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.		Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.		Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.		Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.		Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.		Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.		Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.		49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.		Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.		Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.		Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.		Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.		Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.		Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.		Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.		Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.		Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.		Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.		Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.		Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

The NFL draft is officially underway! Events in Mobile, Alabama have officially concluded, capped by another exciting Senior Bowl game on Saturday. Without the combine and limited attendance at pro days, all eyes were truly on the Senior Bowl.
One of my favorite things about this whole week is the opportunity to see players outside of their usual system. From Mac Jones to Nico Collins, there were several players who got a chance to step outside their college roles and showcase their ability to learn and adapt.
If all of that wasn't enough, we had some great moments of coaching captured by ESPN during their broadcast of the practices during the week. Both the Panthers' and the Dolphins' coaching staffs were mic'd up to provide some excellent sound bites. The best by far came from Matt Rhule explaining what it meant to be coachable to all of the prospects.
I did my best to take notes throughout the week watching practice and the game from home. Some of the following is just a running stream of consciousness. To make it a little easier to follow though, I am going position by position. Consider this my notebook recapping the week of action down in Mobile.
Lackluster quarterback group
While the quarterback position was not loaded with talent as it has been in recent years. That should not diminish the display Mac Jones put on throughout the week. He was head and shoulders above the rest of the quarterbacks in attendance. Jones looked sharp, accurate and poised. His accuracy continues to wow scouts and he easily had the best touch on deep passes of any of the six quarterbacks in attendance. Jones has locked himself in as a top-five quarterback. There is a chance he comes off the board before Trey Lance.
Nowhere near the level that Jones played at, Ian Book still had a solid week. He was the second-best quarterback in Mobile, showing his mobility and an increased willingness to hit receivers in tight windows. He is probably nothing more than a mid-round project at this point, but I think he has pushed himself above the likes of Jamie Newman, who had an uneven week, and Sam Ehlinger, who struggled with consistency and ball placement.
Kellen Mond will draw some intrigue as a late-round flier. His upside is clear and there were moments of brilliance mixed into his play. He was by far the best quarterback in the game on Saturday. Felipe Franks unfortunately looked close to undraftable. He struggled with everything from waiting too long in the pocket to taking snaps under center.
Running backs get left out
Neither team had much success running the ball. The two squads combined for just 121 yards on the ground. Some of it can be chalked up to poor run blocking. Some of it points to an underwhelming running back group and an inability for the teams to establish the run.
Despite the disappointing showing, UNC's Michael Carter still found a way to stand out. He looked great catching passes out of the backfield and showed more power than I would have expected for a player his size. I don't know if I would call him a franchise back, but he is closer to that designation than I originally thought.
Virginia Tech's Khalil Herbert had a couple of moments of brilliance, but they were few and far between. Larry Roundtree looked powerful coming out of Missouri, but had some mental lapses. Rhamondre Stevenson left a bit to be desired after finishing his Oklahoma career on a hot streak. At this point, Carter is the only back from this group I could see going before Day 3.
Another loaded receiver class
This time last year is when the draft community started to gush about K.J. Hill, Collin Johnson, Devin Duvernay, Van Jefferson, Chase Claypool and Brandon Aiyuk. We will have a whole new list of draft favorites after this week.
Michigan's Nico Collins and Florida's Kadarius Toney stole the show. Collins showed a real comfort making contested catches and finding pockets of space in the red zone. Toney flashed an incredible ability to generate separation and clear speed to make opponents pay in the open field. Both have room for improvement. Collins' technique is still a bit raw while Toney struggled with some uncharacteristic drops.
They were not alone in grabbing attention though. Western Michigan's D'Wayne Eskridge widely drew praise for his route running and agility. A few corners called him the toughest player to cover all week. Amari Rodgers from Clemson dominated the game, highlighted by a touchdown catch. He is really tough and showcased great speed and agility. Arizona State's Frank Darby also stood out. He got open a lot and showed good awareness for where he was on the field. Both should climb up draft boards following the weeks they turned in.
South Carolina's Shi Smith turned in a strong week as well. He and Louisville's Dez Fitzpatrick were two of the most productive receivers in space. Fitzpatrick made one of the best plays of the game with an incredible catch over the head of North Carolina Central's Bryan Mills.
Quick shout out is needed too for Tennessee's Josh Palmer. He has the size and speed to stretch the field. He still has a bit of a ways to go with his route running and catching though.
Lots to like from the offensive line
No one is going to make an Eric Fisher-type jump, but there were plenty of linemen that improved their stock after the week. It was the interior linemen that drew the most attention. Oklahoma's Creed Humphrey came into the week as one of the top players suiting up. He did nothing to jeopardize that status with a solid week.
Let's talk about the player getting the most hype from this group. Quinn Meinerz stole the show and set Twitter ablaze with crop top jersey and farm boy workout videos. He also played pretty well. This is going to send a lot of people back to his 2019 film at Wisconsin-Whitewater, but he got on everyone's radar after his performance.
He was far from the only small-school player to turn heads. UNI's Spencer Brown was much more on the radar than Meinerz, but watching him tower over fellow top linemen really put his size into perspective. He measured in at 6'8" with 34-inch arms. There is still a bit of refining to do technique wise, but some scouting department is going to fall in love with his intangibles and take him early with the hopes of developing him into a franchise tackle.
Elsewhere, Cincinnati's James Hudson flashed an enticing blend of size and speed. He is a former defensive lineman. He reminds me a bit of Josh Jones. The athleticism is clear but the technique is a bit raw still. Hudson should be solidly in the Day 2 conversation now. I was also impressed by the play of Robert Hainsey from Notre Dame. He has a good motor and a solid base that translates well to impressive play strength. He is still a late-round prospect, but I liked what I saw on game day.
There were a few players that could have had better weeks. While it was out of his control, Jack Anderson definitely dropped on many draft boards after measuring in with 31 5/8-inch arms. He had a solid week of play, but that number alone will scare teams away. Alex Leatherwood also struggled a bit more than most in one-on-one drills. The long-time Alabama starter failed to cement his status as a first-round pick and likely dropped out of the Day 1 conversation.
Deonte Brown scares me as well. After weighing in at 364 pounds, he got beat a few times in pass protection. I worry that he is not quick enough at his size to contend with the speed of NFL defenders.
Top defensive linemen fall flat, tons of depth emerges
I was really excited to see how Florida State's Marvin Wilson, Pittsburgh's Patrick Jones II, Miami's Quincy Roche and Wake Forest's Carlos Basham Jr. would fair with all eyes on them. Roche and Basham excelled, but Wilson and Jones left a lot to be desired. Wilson needed a big week to erase the concerns about his lackluster senior season. He showed flashes of his 2019 form, but did not dominate as he should have in Mobile. Same can be said for Jones. He had a great moment when he registered a sack in the actual game, but he had an uninspiring week of practice.
Roche was nearly unstoppable. He showed impeccable speed off the edge and an explosive first step. Few opposing linemen were able to stop him during the week's one-on-one drills or during Saturday's game. He will definitely be in the mix to go late on Day 1 or early on Day 2. Basham should be in the same boat following a strong week. He looked comfortable with his hand in the ground playing along the defensive line. He showcased versatility and pass rushing prowess.
Game day turned out to be a field day for the defensive linemen. Osa Odighizuwa of UCLA blew past Deonte Brown and nearly forced a strip sack of Kellen Mond. That capped off a pretty solid week from him. Jonathan Cooper of Ohio State had a great practice week and showed up on Saturday as well with a couple of disruptive plays. Pittsburgh's Rashad Weaver dominated along the interior of the line. I viewed him as more of a standup edge rusher heading into the week given his size, but he stuffed the run consistently and made life hell for some interior offensive linemen.
Don't be surprised if Cameron Sample and Janarious Robinson hear their names called before the end of Day 2. They both had stellar weeks and will definitely be sending scouts back to the tape. Notre Dame's duo of Daelin Hayes and Ade Ogundeji both impressed as well. The top of this draft might lack an elite prospect, but there seems to be some solid depth.
Linebackers came to play
This year's group of linebackers stood out in a big way, making tons of plays throughout the practice week and into the weekend. Jabril Cox, a grad transfer from North Dakota State who played for LSU in 2020, was everywhere. He looked comfortable lining up in the slot, covering running backs out of the backfield and making sure tackles against the run. He has three-down linebacker potential and received nothing but glowing remarks from his teammates.
He was not alone. K.J. Britt was one of the most surprising players of the week for me. I was not very familiar with him coming into the week, but he dominated practice and made a big impact during the game. The former Auburn linebacker looks instinctive and confident in the middle of the field. He has the makings of a true middle linebacker. Additionally, South Alabama's Riley Cole showed out in his home stadium. He flew to the football and dropped the hammer in a couple of situations.
It was not an incredibly deep group, but the top guys made a difference. Ohio State's Baron Browning and Justin Hilliard did nothing to hurt their stock either. Both are athletic backers with a nose for the football.
Defensive backs ensure rough day for quarterbacks
This was not the most star-studded group of defensive backs to ever attend the Senior Bowl, but they sure showed up on game day. Minnesota's Benjamin St. Juste stood head and shoulders above the rest. His length was put to good use as he consistently disrupted passes downfield. He has some versatility to play at safety as well, but I think he could be a starting corner in the right system.
Not to be outdone, Richie Grant and Aaron Robinson improved their draft stocks. Both former UCF defensive backs fared very well in one-on-ones. Grant, who typically lines up at safety, showed his versatility by playing on the boundary. He made a number of plays throughout the week and could genuinely be the first safety to come off the board in a class that lacks a clear cut No. 1 option. Robinson won the week with physicality. He does not have all the measurables you would like to see from a starting corner, but there were a lot of receivers who struggled to get off the line of scrimmage when facing him.
I came into the week excited to see Elijah Molden take the field. He did nothing to hurt his stock, but it was his former Washington teammate that caught my eye more. Keith Taylor Jr. showed flashes of being a shutdown corner. He was incredibly sticky in man coverage and made more than his fair share of pass breakups.
Another corner that I think made himself some money is Tre Brown from Oklahoma. He is a bit undersized at 5'9", but he flew around the field and had multiple interceptions in practice. His upside might be limited by his size, but his effort and ball skills still make him a valuable mid-round commodity.
On the flip side, I don't know that any player's stock dropped more than Thomas Graham Jr.'s. The former Oregon corner struggled more than most in one-on-one drills. He got absolutely torched by Demetric Felton biting on a double move. He is not physical enough at the point of attack and he has poor discipline with his eyes. He has the traits to develop into a good corner, but he looks like a project rather than a pro-ready option.
It was a similar week for Mark Webb from Georgia. He could not keep up with some of the speedy receivers on the field. I would not be surprised if he ends up being an undrafted free agent.
A couple of intriguing position changes
One of the great things about the Senior Bowl is that coaches will ask players to spend some time in positions they maybe didn't play in college, but could in the pros. Dillon Radunz got kicked inside to guard despite measuring in well. He had mixed success with the switch. I think he can still be an NFL tackle, but I suppose this would increase his value by giving teams some more versatility.
Another notable offensive line position switch was Jimmy Morrissey moving to guard. He started 47 games for Pittsburgh at center. Much like Radunz, playing another position isn't a bad thing for his versatility, but I think he fits best at center and it worries me he could not beat out Drake Jackson for the starting reps.
The buzziest position change of all was definitely Demetric Felton shifting to wide receiver after spending his career at UCLA as a running back. He played a bit of both positions in practice and the game. He is simply an offensive weapon at this point. He reminds of a player like Curtis Samuel. He will carve out a role on an NFL offense.
And that will do it. It feels very weird to have the calendar turn to February and not be getting excited for the combine. In the meantime, it will be back to film study trying to learn whatever I can before the draft rolls around in April. Be on the lookout for a new mock draft coming Monday after the Super Bowl when the draft order will officially be set.
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DAVIE, Fla. -- Tua Tagovailoa should be considered the favorite to be the Miami Dolphins' starting quarterback this coming season. The Dolphins are serious about building around their 2020 first-round pick, but there's one player who could be a plan-changer: Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson, 25, is the story of the NFL offseason -- an unhappy but elite franchise quarterback who has asked for a trade. Texans general manager Nick Caserio is telling teams they have "zero interest" in trading their quarterback.
If things were to change, Miami is Watson's preferred destination, sources told ESPN, thanks in part to the team culture coach Brian Flores is building, the Dolphins' ascending roster and the fact there's no state tax in Florida. Also, Miami has premium assets, including the No. 3 and No. 18 picks in the 2021 NFL draft to make a deal.
Like it or not Tagovailoa fans, the Watson trade talk isn't going away any time soon. There's no guarantee Miami will go all-in on Watson even if he is available, but it would be naïve to believe the Dolphins would not consider it; top-5 QBs rarely become available.
When asked about the Watson rumors, Tagovailoa said on ESPN's Get Up! show: "I can only control what I can control. I am the quarterback for the Miami Dolphins."
There's a line of demarcation for Dolphins fans here, with some demanding Miami embrace Tagovailoa no matter what and others urging consideration of a Watson pursuit.
Let's dig right in: Would Watson impact the Dolphins' plan to build around Tagovailoa?

Potential cost and timing

Trading a player such as Watson is practically unheard of, but perhaps the Dallas Cowboys trading running back Herschel Walker to the Minnesota Vikings in 1989, a deal that included three first-rounders, three second-rounders and players is the best example. While at the Senior Bowl, a league source told ESPN he would "eat his hat" if Caserio traded Watson given the QB's talent as well as his familiarity with the GM's resolve.
If the Texans give in and make Watson available, expect the cost to be historic. Three first-round picks and a young starting player would be a respectable opening offer, but it shouldn't surprise if the ultimate price is four first-rounders.
A hypothetical Dolphins offer for Watson could be the No. 3 pick, No. 18 pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick and Tagovailoa. The Texans could also push for the Dolphins to include All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard, a Houston native who finished third in NFL Defensive Player of the Year voting and wants a contract adjustment. If Howard was included, perhaps Miami could include the No. 35 pick instead of the No. 18.
Despite Watson's no-trade clause, the Texans don't have to trade him, so that gives the team leverage in holding out for a Godfather offer.
Timing, however, is key if Miami gets involved. March 17 is the first deadline to monitor as teams will want to solidify their QB situation entering 2021 free agency, but most of the Dolphins' premium assets are in the 2021 draft, while other likely suitors such as the New York Jets have two first-round picks in 2022. April 29 might be a final deadline to keep Miami in the mix on a potential Watson destination.

Case for building around Tagovailoa

This trend of casting final judgments on quarterbacks after one season -- or in Tagovailoa's case, nine starts -- is disappointing at best and foolish at worst. As veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick told ESPN last week, the Dolphins drafted Tagovailoa in the top 5 last season because he has a rare skill set and Miami believed he would be the QB to lead it to a championship.
Significant offseason decisions behind the scenes have already been made with Tagovailoa in mind, multiple people within the Dolphins' organization told ESPN. Decisions we're aware of include Charlie Frye's hiring as Dolphins quarterbacks coach and the co-offensive coordinator promotion of George Godsey and Eric Studesville.
The Dolphins have committed to Tagovailoa's long-term development. Miami's staff believes many of Tagovailoa's rookie struggles are fixable with a full offseason with more reps, and the Dolphins are aiming to get explosive playmakers around him and banking on good chemistry with Godsey and Studesville.
It's also tantalizing to picture the Dolphins building around Tagovailoa by drafting Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith and running back Najee Harris, using free agency to supplement the offense by adding players such as Green Bay Packers All-Pro center Corey Linsley and Indianapolis Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton, and continuing their strong defensive success led by Howard.
Going all-in on Watson would start the clock on the Dolphins' championship window, but would leave them with roster holes combined with the lack of elite draft capital to fix them. It would be a similar roster setup Watson had in his early Houston days when he topped out in the divisional playoffs. And, the decision to add Watson would be a big detour from the Dolphins' largely successful rebuild plan.

Case for going after Watson

Watson, if acquired, would immediately become the Dolphins' best quarterback since Dan Marino. ESPN NFL Nation picked 128 foundational players across all 32 teams last summer, and Watson went No. 4 behind Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, Seattle's Russell Wilson and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson. That would make Watson the NFL's fourth most valuable player, and one could make an argument for higher.
Watson, drafted by Houston at No. 12 overall in 2017, is a three-time Pro Bowler who ranks in the top four all-time in completion percentage (67.8%, first), passer rating (104.5, second) and yards per attempt (8.3, fourth). Watson led the NFL in passing (4,823 yards) and yards per completion (12.6) in 2020.
Yes, there are plenty of reason to believe Tagovailoa will inch his way toward becoming an elite QB. But this is a quarterback league, and Watson has already established himself as a playmaking top-5 QB. It's more comfortable to bet on the sure option rather than the potential.
If the Dolphins (10-6) maintain their top-5 defensive play from the 2020 season and add Watson, they would likely be vaulted to the top of the AFC. Miami would still fall behind Kansas City and probably Buffalo, but with Watson they would have a better chance to dethrone those two. Miami would then compare well on paper to Baltimore, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
And, Miami landing Watson would block the rival Jets from getting him, clearing an easier path to the AFC East crown.
If a team figures out the QB position along with having an ascending roster, the cost to get there is rarely remembered as being too high.

Final thoughts

The Texans and Watson are at a standoff that could last months, all while the Dolphins are planning to build around Tagovailoa as of now. Those are the two facts we know.
Flirting with Watson would be more about the rarity of the situation rather than an indictment on Tagovailoa.
Nine starts coming off a serious hip injury is way too early to give up on Tagovailoa. Though Watson is tantalizing and would be an immediate upgrade, Miami doesn't need him as much as other QB-hungry teams.
If the Dolphins believe Tagovailoa can lead them to a championship with more development and a better roster -- and all indications are they do -- they should keep their draft assets and stay the course.
Miami is in a win-win situation regardless of what happens next.
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https://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/32163/would-deshaun-watsons-availability-change-dolphins-plan-to-build-around-tua-tagovailoa

A lot of us are having some major sports PTSD right now. Two years in a row, a team that beat the shit out of the Packers in the regular season is the Packers' opponent in the NFC Championship Game. Many wonder if history will repeat itself, and here are a few reasons why I think it won't.
#1: The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the 2019 San Francisco 49ers
Last year's 49ers were the best team in the league. I know they lost the Super Bowl, but they controlled that game for the majority of its duration, and they easily could have won if a few plays went differently (3rd and 15 being the most obvious). They had the best defense in the league (I know the Patriots were technically #1 last year but they played absolutely nobody and looked worse as the season progressed), and they had an incredibly efficient offense under Shanahan. That defensive line in particular is in my opinion an all-time great unit. It had: Nick Bosa, the defensive rookie of the year; DeForest Buckner, who is 1st-team All-Pro this year and earned 2nd-team All-Pro last year; Arik Armstead, who had 10 sacks over the season; and D.J. Jones, the least-decorated of the group, but a very solid piece who embarrassed Corey Linsley (the best center in football this year) on multiple snaps. That's just in insane group, and they were able to handily beat the Packers' O-Line by just rushing four. The defense had great linebackers behind that line, and one of the best secondaries in the NFL behind the linebackers. They were stacked.
The 2019 49ers were also just 7 points away combined from going 16-0. They lost by a field goal in OT to Seattle in a back-and-forth game, by a field goal on the road at the AFC 1 seed Ravens, and then by 1 point to the Falcons at home (I'm not counting the last fumble TD, which was borne out of a desperation play). 7 points away from being undefeated. And they were banged up vs the Falcons, too. The 2019 49ers were never not in control of a game they played. They were always competitive, even against elite competition. They won a few close games, but with the exception of their December games vs New Orleans and LA, ESPN's win probability meter never had them at significant odds to lose any of these. They were the best team in the league.
The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the best team in the league. They're 11-5 and they were swept by the Saints in blowout fashion and lost close games to the Bears, Chiefs, and Rams. They also struggled in several games which they ultimately won: they had a comeback vs the Chargers and were down by 17 at multiple points in their first game at Atlanta. Where the '19 49ers essentially played well against everyone on the schedule, the Buccaneers have struggled down the stretch. They ended up 11-5, but they very easily could be a 10-6 or even 9-7 team. They've shown vulnerability in multiple games, and a few of their losses were pretty ugly.
This brings me to my next point:
#2: Green Bay is a lot better than teams that have had success vs the Buccaneers this year
Green Bay got whooped by Tampa in week 6, but it remains the lone blowout loss the Packers have suffered in 2020. The Packers' other two losses this year were at Indianapolis and at home vs Minnesota. Both were very winnable games, and came down to one score. Given the broader context of the season, the Tampa game seems like an outlier more than anything. And last year, Green Bay suffered two blowout losses (prior to the third in the playoffs): at SF and at LAC.
To show how much of an outlier the Tampa game was, here's a DVOA stats comparison. I personally find DVOA a bit flawed in that it doesn't really account for how much teams can improve over the course of a season, but it's popular, so here:
Counting this week, Green Bay played 6 of the top 10 defenses by DVOA in the NFL this year, over 7 games. At New Orleans (#2), vs LAR (#4), at TB (#5), at SF (#6), at IND (#7), and then home and away vs Chicago (#8).
Their stats vs Tampa were: 10 points, 201 yards, 3.3 yards per play. Pretty ugly
Their stats in the other 6 games were, on average: 35 points, 389 yards, 6.5 yards per play. !!!
Minus the Tampa game, Green Bay has actually performed better than their season averages against top ten defenses. And it's not like Tampa was the best of the bunch! They were #5 and this^ includes two games against teams that ranked higher than them.
Green Bay (the #1 offense by DVOA) can compete against anybody. I think Tampa caught them on an off day, on the road, in the sun. And don't forget that Green Bay was up by 10 before the pick six and subsequent tipped-int. The Packers were wrecking the Buccaneers' gameplan until they started blitzing their middle linebackers off the edge and Rodgers got rattled and it was downhill from there. I don't think that'll happen twice, and the Packers' record against quality opponents reflects that.
But the Buccaneers have struggled against opponents of lesser quality than Green Bay. In some cases, far lesser quality. Here are a few statlines they've allowed:
vs KC (#2 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 543 yards, 7.5 yards per play
vs LAR (#10 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 413 yards, 5.8 yards per play
vs Carolina (#17 offense by DVOA): 17 points, 427 yards, 6.0 yards per play (they forced 4 turnovers this game, but it goes without saying that GB can't turn the ball over vs Tampa and expect to win)
2 games vs Falcons (#21 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 377 yards per game, 5.6 yards per play
3 games vs Saints (#7 offense by DVOA): 31 points per game, 328 yards per game, 4.9 yards per play
at WFT (#32 offense by DVOA, admittedly with Heinicke in this game): 23 points, 375 yards, 5.4 yards per play
vs LAC (#15 offense by DVOA): 31 points, 324 yards, 6.5 yards per play
Teams do move the ball against this defense. In some cases, they do it quite a lot. I don't know that it'll be realistic for Green Bay to hang 543 yards on Tampa, but hey, someone did it this year. And Green Bay just hung 484 on a Rams defense that hadn't allowed more than 390 all year.
The Rams and Falcons games really stick out to me, in particular. Tampa gave up 413 yards to the same Rams offense Green Bay held to 244 (admittedly without Kupp), and they gave up 377 on average in their two games against a Falcons team GB held to 327. These aren't crazy talented offenses (like GB is) and yet they put up solid numbers against the Buccaneers. If Green Bay has done their homework, and figured out an answer to Tampa's blitzing, I don't see any reason why they can't have the kind of success against the Buccaneers these teams did.
​
But what about the defense?
Okay, so remember what I said about DVOA? I think it's unfair to units that improve down the stretch of the season, and I think Green Bay's defense is definitely one of those units. Football Outsiders has GB ranked #17 on defense and I think that's kind of bullshit. The #17 defense doesn't hold Tennessee (#4 offense) to 14 points. The #17 defense doesn't allow an average of 287 yards, 16 points, and 4.8 yards per play down the stretch to three straight playoff teams in a row in Tennessee, Chicago, and LA (#4, #25, and #10 ranked offenses, respectively).
I'm gonna go with EPA on this one. EPA has Green Bay ranked #5 on defense since week 9 and I think that's reflective of how well this team has played down the stretch. Tampa's defense is #12 by this metric since week 9, by the way.
Anyway, #3: Green Bay actually has a defense to match Tampa's, and even exceed it depending on where you look
Green Bay's defense is really good this year. They were pretty average early in the season, but they've turned into an elite unit down the stretch. They've given up more than 400 yards once all year at Indianapolis, which is more than the Buccaneers can say, and they've performed similarly and better in cases against common opponents.
I think GB has the best secondary in football right now. Jaire is PFF's #1 CB, and Amos and Savage are both in its top 10 for safety rankings. King is serviceable, and guys like Sullivan and Redmond get the job done when called upon.
Z's been in PFF's top 15 edge rushers all year, and Gary made headlines this week because he's posted PFF grades above 90 against Tennessee and Chicago recently, and he posted above 80 against the Rams. That puts him among the best in the league right now. Clark just had a sack and a half against the Rams this week, and Preston's looked good recently, with some pressures and a few batted balls. This defensive front is scary. This defense is scary.
That brings me to my last point.
#4: It's different this time around.
This time around, it's at home. This time around, Green Bay's got a full season of Tampa's defense on tape. They can see how teams have racked up yards against them, and they can plan for the blitz looks Tampa hurled at them out of nowhere in week 6.
This time, it'll be below freezing outside as a Florida team travels a thousand miles north to play in the snow for the first time in many of their players' careers. They're gonna be tested by cold wind and sleet, and it'll be loud, too. There are gonna be thousands of fans in attendance, cheering the Packers on.
Tampa Bay is damn good. Tom Brady is damn good. His receivers are damn good. His running back is damn good. His offensive line (increasingly injured as it may be) is damn good. But Green Bay's offense is better.
Tampa Bay's defense is really good. But I think Green Bay's is better. If any secondary can match up against Godwin/Evans/Brown, it's Amos/Savage/Jaire. If any front four can get pressure on Brady, it's Z/Clark/Preston/Gary.
I think Green Bay's got this. I sure hope they do.

Background

The NFL is the professional organization for gridiron football in the United States, and one of the largest sporting organizations on the planet. Boasting a yearly revenue of over $16 billion... you know, lets pause and put that in perspective. Video games - the entire idea of electronic games you play, whether on your phone, computer, or dedicated console - have a yearly revenue of $44 billion. That means the NFL makes about 40% of what video games - the entire fucking industry - does worldwide.
It is also deliciously petty. 31 of the 32 teams are owned by rich individuals who did not make their money through football. That means they're essentially owned by super rich fans who are not used to anyone telling them no. These owner superfans can fire people, demand trades, etc. And do. Imagine if you picked your industry, and had it run by a bunch of outsiders who knew very little about it, but had vast amounts of money and bad tempers. Oh and unlike European football with relegations, there's nothing to remove a team or force them to be competitive, meaning people making bad decisions can just keep making the bad decisions.
The result is you could probably make a subreddit just called "Gridiron football drama" and it'd be populated as fuck. Therefore I won't go into the minor things - the players who robbed a bunch of people but then bribed their way out of charges, the dogfighting, the guy who shot himself in the leg, that's just standard petty shit. Coaches fired after good seasons because the owner doesn't like them, total idiots left on for years, good ol' boys who never seem to quite depart the NFL despite no one having an idea what they're good at, the ongoing disaster of analytics (the idea of applying mathematics to a sport run by overgrown infants), no, no, that's for another time.
A good time. I'll probably do one or two more of these.

COVID and the League

The NFL makes $16 billion. COVID kills people. $16 billion vs. dead people. Hmmm. Dead people. $16 billion.
So we're having a football season this year. It's almost guaranteed to kill at least some people who are either involved or involved in outbreaks caused by it, but hey, life goes on. Or doesn't.
The NFL pays lip service to preventing the spread, which is the start of our delicious drama.

COVID Protocols - the answer

The NFL has instituted COVID protocols. These are insane. For instance, people on the sidelines have to wear a mask. Athletes don't, because you can't breath through a mask while pushing your body to its limits. They explored face shields, but nah.
So you have two guys who are literally laying next to each other on the ground panting for breath after tackling (this sport isn't at all gay). They are breathing heavily, inches from each other. But say those exact same players who have been breathing in each other's faces for hours celebrate winning in the locker room? That sounds like half a million in fines. Pay up!
There's no real describing how insane this is. The raiders coach doesn't like his mask so he's declared war on the NFL. The Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Raiders, and more have been fined.
The masks have also looked sillier and sillier. This man is considered a football genius. No, he hasn't taken one too many shots to the head or something, he's just incapable of wearing a mask normally. God knows why. Coaches regularly pull them down to talk to people, thus defeating the entire point, etc. See? He wears a mask when he doesn't need to be close to people or talk to them he only pulls it down for short periods of time when he's close and talking. I don't see the problem here.
Half the organizations fined are appealing, and accusations of bias have flown back and forth. Angriest are the Saints, who are PISSED about being fined half a million dollars for having a celebration in their own locker room after a win after they passed a COVID test right before the game.
Does any of this make sense? Nope!
There's some more sensible protocols too. For instance new players have to test negative, then sit out in isolation for six days while the teams wait for them to make sure they don't have COVID, test negative again, then they can join the team. Of course isolation isn't that isolating, but that's a whole other matter. So overall, mixed bag for protocols.

Fake fan noise

Okay, so most games can't be attended by fans (not Dallas, Dallas said fuck it get sick and die) but crowd noise is a big part of football. Crowds cheer their team. So they pipe in fake crowd noise.
This is a little creepy but not too bad. So where's the drama? Well, lets turn to Philadelphia, the city of brotherly love. Their QB, Carson Wentz, has been having a bit of a down year. So to show him love, they piped in fake boos. At a home game. This is kinda how Philly fans roll, but needless to say this move drew some controversy.

Baltimore Ravens COVID

The Baltimore Ravens were supposed to play a game on Thanksgiving, but their QB might have COVID. Fortunately the NFL was understanding. A QB is the most important position on the field, and without Lamar Jackson, there's no way the Ravens could be expected to play. So the game has been delayed as they work the situation out. So far, so good.

Denver Broncos

Okay, so that brings us to the Denver Broncos. See, anyone who has COVID has to be quarantined, as does anyone who might have it. Even if they test negative for a long while.
So the Denver Broncos backup QB has COVID. And they had a long meeting with their QB and their other backup QB. And their other backup. In a room with no masks. They're all put on COVID watch list, meaning they can't play.
So the Denver broncos have four quarterbacks, and none can play. The Ravens have just had a game delayed. The Broncos get told... game on.
Okay, they look around for QBs they can get on short notice. But remember in the protocol section where they have to have new players wait six days? Oh. They don't have six days.
In desperation they ask the NFL if they can at least play their assistant coach. He can throw footballs, and knows the playbook. Nope! Not signed as a player, has to sit for six days. "But he's been practicing with the team!" the Broncos tell the NFL. The NFL decides to beat the dead horse some more, and denies them.
Thus the Denver Broncos try to figure out who on their team can throw a football. The answer was their practice squad wide receiver Kendell Hinton. Here's him throwing passes in training camp.
Uh yeah, he catches passes. Not throws them. And has never played a game. And last threw a pass in a game in 2016, in college. And works as a salesman part time.
Is this a total middle finger to the NFL from the Broncos, or just the only person they had? I don't know, but it's ugly.

The game.

So the Kendall Hinton completed 1 of 9 passes. These are the highlights. 1 for 9, 13 yards, 2 interceptions. The Broncos got drubbed by the Saints, obviously, although NO was pretty gentle with Hinton overall. There's a lot of "welcome to the NFL" defense strategies you can use against a new QB like blitz zero - basically an all-out blitz - that will generally crush them until they get used to it. NO kindly used none of that, playing pretty standard.
Of course Hinton couldn't beat pretty standard, because Hinton is a receiver who isn't good enough to make the main squad. It's not all bad for him. The Denver Broncos gave him a shoutout on their Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Broncos/status/1333195716831838208
They reportedly gave him an ovation in the locker room, and gave him a the game ball. Multiple players have said they respect him, and they should. They weren't throwing the ball, and they probably would have looked just as bad. Gridiron football positions are not interchangeable, and QB is the hardest to step in to.
Fortunately Hinton seemed happy postgame interview, but damn.

Fallout

Broncos fans are furious the Ravens sat while their team was forced to play. Even ESPN has called this game "unprecedented in the modern era of football." There's a bunch of wagon circling back and forth.
Mike Klis a team reporter who covers them has reported that the Broncos other QBs tested negative before and after the game, meaning they could have played. Had they delayed the game they CERTAINLY could have played. So why did the NFL punish the Broncos and not the Ravens? Why show one team favoritism and guarantee the other a loss?
A big controversy is the NFL seems to be pushing "name brand" QBs. Lamar Jackson, QB of the Ravens, is one of those name QBs, and the NFL is pushing him hard as one of the faces of their game. Drew Lock, the Broncos QB, is not.
So this is adding fuel to that fire. Fans are convinced that people like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Lamar Jackson are getting more protection from the NFL - refs are calling fouls if anyone touches them, they're rearranging schedules to highlight them, etc. These people most certainly increase NFL revenue, and the NFL pushes them hard.
On the other side, many outfits are talking how the Broncos broke the rules, and how the punishment was not unwarranted. Are these connected to the NFL? Maybe. Sports media is a bit incestuous. They can't just go report on some other organization if the NFL bans them or does mean things to them.
So this has drawn battle lines, and lead to a grand controversy that's still developing.
Was this interesting? Anyone interested in a writeup of the collapse of the Chicago Bears in 2020, the Antonio Brown saga (in three part harmony), or the 60 year history of mismanagement and ineptitude that is the Detroit Lions? Do you like reading about Gridiron football?

It has been a long two weeks since the college football season ended. Thankfully, the wait is almost over!
The 2021 Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama begins in earnest on Monday as players are measured and welcomed to the weeklong festivities. As Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy always says, “the draft starts in Mobile,” and never is that more true than in 2021.
With so much of the normal scouting cycle truncated or adjusted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this is one of the few chances scouts will get to evaluate some of the top talent leading up to the 2021 NFL draft. And I mean top talent. The rosters are jam packed with recognizable names and small school stars.
First thing is first, if you want to watch all the action unfold this week, now would be a good time to make sure you have NFL Network or ESPN/ESPNU. Practices will be televised and covered on both networks throughout the week in the build up to the game. The actual Senior Bowl game is on Saturday, January 30 and will air on NFL Network.
The practice week might even be more important than the game itself. Just ask Javon Kinlaw, who suited up for one day of practice last year, dominated the competition, then withdrew from participation. Practice starts on Tuesday and will be led by the Dolphins’ and Panthers’ coaching staffs. This is a huge opportunity for Brian Flores and Matt Rhule to get to know the players on their respective rosters, especially when you consider that the combine and individual workouts are not happening as they would in normal years. Miami has the No. 3 and No. 18 picks in the first round, while Carolina holds the eighth overall selection. Needless to say, these are teams with premium picks in this upcoming draft. 73 different schools are represented among the 110 players invited to participate. This is a star-studded list as well. Let’s start with the guys you probably already know.
Stars of the show
Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama – Yup, the Heisman winner is going to be in Mobile. Don’t get your hopes up too high though. This is likely just to meet with the coaches and measure in. He is still not medically cleared after suffering an injury in the national championship game.
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama – Smith’s star quarterback will be here as well. He will get a chance to wow scouts outside the loaded Alabama offense and prove he is more than a system quarterback. There is some first round buzz around him, but the general opinion on Jones is very split. This week could go a long way in swaying the scouting community one way or the other.
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama – Let’s round out the Alabama three-headed monster with Najee Harris. Harris is a bruising back with good hands. If he can show enough speed during these practice days, he could solidify himself as the top back in the class.
Kyle Trask, QB, Florida – Another Heisman finalist joins the crew. Trask will have a chance to answer questions about his arm strength and mobility. With Carolina in the market for a quarterback of the future, the chance to impress Rhule and his staff is huge.
Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State – He entered the national championship game on a tear before exiting early with an injury. Unclear how healthy he is going to be heading into the week. He is a name to watch after a dominant finish to the season.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida – A huge part of Florida’s offensive resurgence this season, Toney is a fun playmaker to watch in space. With his name already hovering around the first round, a big week could lock him in as a Day 1 pick.
Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma – With the injury to Landon Dickerson, Humphrey has a chance to earn the mantle of best center in this class. He was rock solid at Oklahoma and should be one of the top interior linemen selected.
Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame – Eichenburg is one of the top offensive tackles in Mobile for the week. He was great protecting at Ian Book’s blindside throughout the season. In my opinion, he is one of the more polished prospects in this class, but his upside is limited by a lack of elite athleticism. Ian Book, QB, Notre Dame – Speaking of Ian Book, he might not be highly regarded as a quarterback prospect this year, but he will draw a lot of attention after leading Notre Dame to the College Football Playoff. He is not one of the top prospects in this class, but he is a name a lot of people already know. Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama – Arguably the top lineman who accepted an invite, Leatherwood is an interesting player to watch. He has played all over the line at Alabama. Where coaches line him up this week could be very telling.
Carlos Basham, DL, Wake Forest – Let’s get over to the defensive side of the ball. Basham enters as one of the top defenders participating on many draft boards. He will have a chance to feast in the one-on-one drills. He was dominant in his time at Wake Forest.
Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami – The former Temple standout impressed in his one season at Miami. The list of edge rushers is fairly short, so Roche will have a chance to stand out. He still feels like a work in progress despite being a grad transfer.
Richard LeCounte III, S, Georgia – After a great career at Georgia, LeCounte will have a chance to follow in the long line of Bulldogs defenders who have gone early in the NFL draft. It is a deep safety class and this week will give him a chance to separate from the pack.
Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pittsburgh – One of the top pass rushers in the country each of the past two years, Jones will have a chance to show off his speed. Teams are desperate for pass rushers this year. I could see him sneaking into the top half of the first round if he has a big enough week. This edge rusher class is still wide open.
Small school stars who could shine
Without a doubt, these rosters are loaded with talent. And those are just some of the big-name players that will feature prominently in practice this week. One of the great things about the Senior Bowl though is the chance for small school stars to jump off the page and send their draft stock soaring. Recent examples include Kyle Dugger from Lenoir Rhyne and Jeremy Chinn from Southern Illinois. Here are some of the best unheralded standouts that could be big risers by the end of the week.
Tarron Jackson, EDGE, Coastal Carolina – Coastal Carolina was obviously the Cinderella story of the 2020 college football season, but the Chanticleers still didn’t get the respect they deserved. He had a strong statistical year and will get a chance to make a bigger name for himself in Mobile.
Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State – You’ve probably heard this one already. Radunz was getting some first-round buzz before the start of the 2020 season. We haven’t seen him play this year because he opted out after the FCS moved its season to the spring. Needless to say, huge week for him.
Spencer Brown, OT, UNI – I don’t think he has gotten the same hype as Radunz, but he probably should. Brown is a mammoth. He is listed at 6’9″, 320 lbs and reported benches 500 lbs. That should speak for itself. Prepare for some scouts to fall in love with Brown similar to how they did last year with Mekhi Becton.
D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan – If you are looking for a big-play threat, Eskridge might be the guy for you. He averaged 23.3 yards per reception this season and scored eight touchdowns for the Broncos. His size is a concern, but he will get a chance to show he belongs with the top prospects.
Robert Jones, G, Middle Tennessee State – One of the top offensive linemen in Conference USA, was one of the bright spots in a tough season for the Blue Raiders. He has the size to impress coaches this week. Without a ton of high profile interior linemen in this year’s class, this is a massive opportunity for Jones.
Christian Uphoff, S, Illinois – Hard not to pick a fellow safety from an FCS school in Illinois after what Jeremy Chinn did last year. More of a traditional safety than Chinn, who was built like a hybrid linebacker, Uphoff has not played since 2019 due to the pandemic. For every FCS star, this week is crucial as they get their first reps in a long time.
Riley Cole, LB, South Alabama – Cole was one of the top tacklers in the country in 2020. He led the Jaguars with 96 stops, including 54 solo tackles. He is a bit undersized, but coaches could be willing to overlook that given his productivity.
Quintin Morris, TE, Bowling Green – It was a terrible season for Bowling Green. Morris now gets a chance to showcase his talent outside of the team’s dysfunctional offense. He has the build to be a productive move tight end in the right system.
Who needs a big week?
Senior Bowl week is important for all of the players looking to improve their draft stock. However, there are a few that really need a strong week to bolster their standing among their peers. Here are the players under the most pressure to perform.
Jamie Newman, QB, Georgia/Wake Forest – Newman transferred after an exciting season with Wake Forest. He never took a snap for Georgia. With a ton of question marks, Newman needs to produce some answers in Mobile. Will he look sharp after months of preparation or rusty after not playing a game in over a year? At the same time, there is a clear drop off in this quarterback class after the top four prospects. A strong week could position Newman as one of the top mid-round options at the position.
Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida State – Wilson was generating first-round consideration last year before deciding to return to school. It turned out to be a poor decision. The season was tough for everyone, but Wilson had a new coaching staff take over and then had a public dispute with his new coach before the year even began. He checks all the physical boxes, so if he can show that potential we all saw on film in 2019, he could salvage his draft stock.
Tuf Borland, LB, Ohio State – Unfortunately for Borland, the last thing a lot of people are going to remember about his college career is him getting toasted by DeVonta Smith on a terrible mismatch. He has to work to erase that image and give scouts something else to talk about. Perhaps this is a bit unfair, but as the saying goes, you are only as good as your last game.
Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest – Surratt was a late addition to the Senior Bowl roster, but a good one. He tore up the ACC in 2019 before going down with an injury. He then opted out of the 2020 season, which means the last snaps we saw him play came over 14 months ago. That’s a long time to be out of the eye of scouts and coaches. He has a chance to be one of the best receivers suited up this week.
Jacoby Stevens, LB/S, LSU – Stevens was a top recruit out of high school, but has definitely not parlayed that into immense draft buzz. Given his size and success in the box, I will be curious to see if coaches want to work him out as a linebacker. This could be a massive week in determining how NFL teams view him as a prospect.
Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech – As it seems to be every year, this running back class is deep. Herbert was a human highlight reel this season for the Hokies. He needs to prove that he can sustain this success though. He spent the first four years of his college career at Kansas and came nowhere close to reaching the heights he did in 2020. A limited resume as a pass catcher could hurt his stock as well. If he shows off some soft hands in drills and scrimmages, we could see Herbert come off the board some time on Day 2. If not, he has an uphill climb heading into the rest of the draft process.
Breakout candidates
Every year, there are a few players who arrive from notable schools who maybe did not get the best chance to showcase their skill set in their college system. Van Jefferson showed off some incredible route running last year that we had not seen at Florida. Josh Uche flashed tons of speed that boosted his draft stock. So did Troy Pride Jr., who would run routes for the opposing receiver at times. Those three went to major schools, Florida, Michigan and Notre Dame, but didn’t really start to earn more draft buzz until the Senior Bowl. Here are some candidates that could do the same this year.
Michael Carter, RB, UNC – The lightning to Javonte Williams’ thunder, Carter actually led the Tar Heels in rushing, but took a back seat to Williams, who finished the year with 22 touchdowns. Carter will get a chance to remind scouts that he is more than just a change of pace back and can be relied on at the next level.
Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina – After spending two years behind Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards, Smith got his turn as the top receiver. South Carolina might have had a rough year, but Smith actually played pretty well in his go-to playmaker role. I think he has a chance to shine and move himself into the Day 2 conversation.
Nico Collins, WR, Michigan – After opting out of the 2020 season, Collins has a chance to reassert himself in the wide receiver conversation. He has the size to turn heads and it will be really fun to see him compete in one-on-one drills. He will benefit from some better quarterback play than what he has dealt with at Michigan, too.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma – For teams looking for a powerful back, Stevenson should be on their radar. He returned from a drug suspension in late October and looked great in the Sooners’ final six games, including a 186-yard performance against Florida.
James Wiggins, S, Cincinnati – Wiggins had an interesting career at Cincinnati. He tore his ACL before the 2019 season after a fantastic 2018 showing. Injuries again slowed him down the stretch of 2020. If he is fully healthy, this will be a great opportunity to remind scouts of his athleticism.
Jabril Cox, LB, LSU – The former North Dakota State standout tried to help LSU pick up the pieces after losing so much talent from 2019’s national title team. Cox has great size and speed for the position. I think he got lost in the focus on LSU’s offensive struggles, but he could really make a statement in what feels like a wide-open linebacker class.
Desmond Fitzpatrick, WR, Louisville – He might not be as much of a household name as his teammate Tutu Atwell, but Fitzpatrick is a big-play threat in his own right. He showed flashes during the 2020 season. I think he will have the physical tools to win one-on-one matchups and turn some heads. Richie Grant, S, UCF – Grant has a nose for the football and a talent for making big plays. He turned in a great 2020 campaign and has a chance to build off that in Mobile. This is a deep safety class, so Grant needs to stand out.
Hunter Long, TE, Boston College – Long took a big step in his development in 2020, doubling his yardage per game and hauling in more than five passes per contest. He has ideal size for the position and could wow in a solid tight end group competing in Mobile.
Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss – While Long is more your typical possession receiver, Yeboah is the big-play threat. He averaged closed to 20 yards per reception in 2020. Despite that, he can still be a factor in the red zone. He has the size and speed combo to be a mismatch for defenders.
Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State – Hill made waves in the offseason for sparking meaningful change in Mississippi State. After threatening to boycott the season, the state agreed to remove its current flag, which featured the symbol of the Confederacy, and design a new one. Unfortunately, Hill did end up missing most of the 2020 season anyway. He only appeared in three games, totally just 15 carries. He has plenty of previous experience to lean on and impressively tallied 23 catches in those three games as well. If he can continue to flash that pass catching ability, he will be rising up draft board.
Despite my best efforts, I cannot break down every player attending this year’s Senior Bowl. Hopefully, this will give you a pretty good introduction to this year’s rosters. Let me know if there someone you are keeping a close eye on that I didn't cover here. As always, you can check out the full list of attendees on the Senior Bowl website. It is time to officially get draft season underway. Happy scouting!
https://aftermathsports.com/2021/01/23/2021-senior-bowl-preview-mac-jones-kyle-trask-headline-players-to-watch-sleepers/

Setting the Stage for the 2021 Draft

It's time to start looking forward to the 2021 NFL Draft now that we are officially eliminated from the postseason AND are picking at #4 (as of right now. I don't expect that to change much, especially given our final two opponents, the Washington Football Team and New Orleans, will be looking for either a division crown or an outside shot at the #1 seed in the playoffs). The big question surrounding who we should pick will be swirling for a while, with people throwing out Micah Parsons or Pat Surtain II. I don't think, however, that we will be picking anything other than a QB. Coach Rhule has already criticized Teddy a couple of times already.
As I've said before, I believe the plan all along was to let Teddy take the reins this year so that the team would have some veteran leadership, and then see where he guided us. Then, in 2021, the plan was always to take a QB in either the 1st or 2nd round, and let that QB sit behind Teddy for the majority of the 2021 season, and then cut ties with Teddy at the end of 2021 and let the drafted QB take over going into the 2022 season. (This is why Teddy's contract has a $21m savings if we release him after the 2021 season.)

The 2021 Draft Forecast

The 2021 Draft is unique because it is THE QB Draft. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have always been the two favorites going into season, much the same way Andrew Luck and RGIII were obvious #1 and #2 in the QB prospect rankings in 2011. But beyond that, this year there is a load of talent in the 2nd and 3rd tiers of QBs that could all make franchise QBs. Trey Lance was always considered the "third wheel" of the group, and Zach Wilson was seen as the back-end of the 1st round guy. He's obviously moved up with stellar play, but so have guys like Mac Jones.
Now that we're picking 4th, I've noticed some posters say we should try and trade up to #2 and get Fields. This, should be, out of the question. The Draft Trade Value Chart is still very much a baseline for teams to use, even though it is now over 3 decades old. Looking at the Draft Value Chart, the #2 pick is worth 2649 points. That is our destination. Our #4 pick is worth only 2297, which puts us almost 400 total points behind the #2 spot. To make up that ground, we would need to likely give up our 3rd round pick to move up as well. Normally that's not a huge deal, but the problem here is that this Draft is incredibly lopsided towards QBs, which pushes every other position down the board. There are LOTS of LT prospects in the Draft that can be had in the 30-38 range (Leatherwood, Radunz, Christensen, Little, etc.) and even more LB prospects to be found in the 50-70 range (Werner, Surratt, Collins, Robertson, etc.). We can't risk that range of picks moving up when there's so much other value on the table later on.
With all of that being said, the focus here is on Trey Lance versus Zach Wilson. My guess is that most of you have only heard the name or saw highlights of Trey Lance, and possibly even Zach Wilson. I've been fortunate enough to watch a ton of NDSU games, and have been able to watch Zach Wilson play this year since the FCS has taken the Fall off, and Lance is preparing for the NFL Draft (sans one showcase game, but we'll get to that).

The Prospects: Trey Lance

Height: 6'4 (listed, will probably be closer to 6'3 1/2)
Weight: 225lbs (listed, though he'll probably weigh in around 220)
Age: 20 (will turn 21 right after the Draft)
2020 Stats: 15-30/149 yards/2 TDs/1 INT | 15 rushes/143 yards/2TDs
Highlights: Here you go
Pro Comparison: Deshaun Watson
(Before I start, here's a cool little video from College Gameday that ESPN did earlier this year.)
The numbers for Trey Lance seem weird when looking at them objectively. Only played in one game this year, and played an extremely odd game. But there's more to Trey than just his numbers this season. First, NDSU only played one game this Fall, due to the FCS sitting out the Fall sports program and moving to Spring. His 2019 numbers are eye-popping, however.
192-287/2786 yards/28 TDs/0 INT | 169 rushes/1100 yards/14 TDs
Those numbers are absolutely insane. Sure, they come against FCS teams, but even still, he's a man amongst boys.
There are times when it looks like Trey Lance is already an NFL QB. He calls his plays from the huddle, he calls his own protections from under center at the LoS, and then takes his snaps from under center and operates out of either an I-formation or a single back set a majority of the time. In fact, read this excerpt from ESPN about how Lance approaches the gameplan of football.

During game weeks, Lance studies hours of tape in preparation. On Mondays, he reviews the opponents' overall schemes; Tuesdays are for third down; Wednesdays for red zone; and Thursdays for two-minute offense. On Fridays, after cutting film the previous day, Lance presents the game plan to his receivers, telling them where they need to be in particular concepts.

That's right, Lance draws up his own gameplans for his receivers and their routes. So, yes, the NDSU offense does, at times, look like guys are being schemed just absolutely wide open, while Lance just throws strike after strike down the field. But it's Lance who is drawing up those concepts to get those guys free. He understands football at a level that most 20 year olds cannot even begin to process. Not even looking at his raw, God-given talents and athleticism, he understands football. A lot of the questions for players when they come out of college is: "can this guy operate in the NFL from a spread offense?" Even one of the major questions about Cam was, has he ever called plays in the huddle? Well, that didn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, but it is a question. Lance not only calls the plays from the huddle, he's responsible for concepts in each phase, whether it be their hurry up offense, their red zone offense, etc.
This is where the comparison to Deshaun Watson comes in. Yes, he's a mobile QB with a massive arm that can throw the ball anywhere on the field. But it's more about how intelligent he is as a QB, understanding the flow and motion of a game better than his peers.
There are obviously negatives to his game. He's not the perfect, polished QB that Trevor is, obviously. Sometimes Trey tries to rely on his athleticism to make big plays. Whether that's heaving the ball downfield off his back foot or throwing while fading to his right (something Cam had significant problems with throughout his career), Trey will need to learn to set his feet and not rely on being more athletic than everyone because, honestly, he's not more athletic than everyone in the NFL. This also comes into play when he's running the ball. Yes, Trey is fast. Like, VERY fast. I would say he ends up running a 4.5 - 4.6 40 time. But there are times when he lowers his shoulder for a boom to truck players. And he does! At least, in the FCS he does. In the NFL, he's going to have a rough time if he tries to just bulldoze someone like Lavonte David, for example.
All-in-all, Trey is my favorite QB for us in the NFL Draft. I think he has skills that are far beyond his years. He's smart, athletic, and knows football. He doesn't rely on a spread to just dominate FCS teams with up-tempo. Instead, he can slow the game down, then just accelerate past you once you've fallen into a lull. But he does need work, and I think sitting behind Teddy for a year will give him insight into the game of football that would be invaluable. And I don't mean this negatively: Teddy could teach him how to be a pro and take what is given to you, even if that means passing for 3 or 4 yards at a time. Not every play has to be a 40 yard moon shot.
Trey is also young enough that he could be our starting QB for the next 15 years if it turned out right. Think about this: Trey won't be 21 until after the Draft. That means in a decade, he'll only be 31. That's insane.

The Prospects: Zach Wilson

Height: 6'3 (listed, though he may be a true 6'3)
Weight: 210lbs (listed, though I'm not sure how I feel about that. He could bulk up for the Draft to around 215 or 220.)
Age: 21 (will turn 22 right after before the preseason begins)
2020 Stats: 221-302/3267 yards/30 TDs/3 INTs | 65 rushes/242 yards/8TDs
Highlights: Here you go
Pro Comparison: A much better Jimmy G
Zach Wilson is someone you've definitely heard of by this point. He has risen up the Draft boards, and, before the loss to Coastal, was rising up as a Heisman dark horse. Before this season, there was talk about Zach possibly hitting the back end of round 1, maybe even early round 2, but there were also some serious questions about his health, which I feel like we should start out with.
Zach has had shoulder surgery on his throwing shoulder from an injury sustained in high school. He said that the injury would feel horrible on Mondays after games. The surgery could help clear that up, and there's obviously no signs of any injuries when he's throwing quick strikes down the field. But, however, even bigger than that is that he has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will need to be worked on. From that same interview:

Wilson, in his interview with BYU Sports Nation, added that he also has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will eventually require surgery. He said he has been limited in his workouts, including not being able to bench press, but does a lot of workouts with dumbbells and resistance bands, typical to the routine of a healthy quarterback.

Not being able to lift is a big deal, though not terrible for a QB. As long as he is doing resistance training, he should be good. There's still some chances that he won't be able to participate in the bench press workout at the Draft, which could see some teams waver on him.
What does Zach do well to make up for the injury concerns, though? Well, for one, he throws at almost every arm angle. He has the ability to lower his shoulder and throw those weird, quick strike, side-arm pitcher style throws. He can move in the pocket while throwing accurately downfield. The "Moving Parallelogram" is a hard concept for QBs to run often, because it requires great feetwork and accuracy on the move. Zach Wilson does it with ease, and does it consistently. This is where the big comparison to Jimmy G comes from. Jimmy is great at shuffling his feet, moving out into space, and getting the "Moving Parallelogram" concepts to work to his advantage.
Here's the thing with Zach Wilson versus Trey Lance in the grand scheme of things. Trey is a dominant force athletically, being able to do everything and see everything... but the knock is it's against FCS teams. Zach has been doing this against the P5 teams consistently. He's played against Washington, USC, Utah, etc., and, though he does struggle in some of those games, he still has shown that he's tough and can play through pain and injury to get the job done. That's something that Coach Rhule has expressed happiness with, especially when it came to DJackson this year. Being tough and fighting through injury is laudable.
Will Zach need to sit for a half a season/a season to prepare like Trey? Yeah, I think he will. I think that Zach needs to learn how to make progressions from an NFL offense. It's important to note here that BYU runs a variant offense, running through the spread with motion, under center, 4 right sets, etc. And while Zach's mechanics are very good, I think that he needs to learn how to be consistent against some of the top level teams from an NFL offense. Make reads out of the spread and understand coverages and concepts.
Here's a really cool video featuring Zach's family, interviewing him on toughness and how determined Zach is to succeed. One thing that I really took away from this is that Zach has taken the time to consistently work with John Beck on his mechanics, and John Beck is a great example to follow. He's someone who has taken a path through the NFL, to the CFL, and has seen a myriad of offenses come and go. That's awesome to see that he's taking it seriously, and not just saying "well, I'm the starting QB of BYU, so I've got this in the bag."

Where do Dak Prescott, Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson, Leonard Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kenny Golladay and Trent Williams rank among the top 50 pending unrestricted free agents? Glad you asked.
The list will be updated in the weeks ahead as players are re-signed, released and tagged. The age in parentheses indicates how old the player will be at the start of the 2021 season.

1. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys (28)

Prescott has completed 66 percent of his passes, averaged 7.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and thrown 106 touchdown passes with 40 interceptions in his career. If we want to go to advanced stats, he’s averaged 0.14 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play over the last three years, according to TruMedia’s model. That ranks ninth out of 44 quarterbacks. Prescott is coming off of a serious ankle injury but didn’t miss a game in his first four seasons. There’s pretty much no scenario where he enters the free-agent market, but Prescott tops the list because technically his contract is due to expire. The Cowboys have four options:

• Sign Prescott long term.
• Use the franchise tag for the second time and keep him.
• Use the franchise tag for the second time and trade him.
• Let him walk in free agency.

Signing Prescott long term would be ideal, but the Cowboys have had the opportunity to make that happen in the last two offseasons and have failed to get it done. Keeping him on the franchise tag is risky: One, because it will cost roughly $37 million — both in cash and cap — in 2021; and two, it would all but guarantee that Prescott could hit the open market in 2022. Bottom line: The Cowboys need to make a decision this offseason. Either sign Prescott long term, or see what the options look like for a tag and trade.

2. Allen Robinson, WR, Bears (28)

Teams in need of help at wide receiver are in luck. This free-agent class is loaded with pass-catchers. And Robinson figures to be near the top of the list for most teams.
His talent is obvious, but Robinson has been victimized by bad quarterback play since signing with the Bears in 2018. He now could get another chance to test the market. Robinson’s 2,397 receiving yards over the last two seasons ranks third among wide receivers, behind only Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins. He’s a legit outside No. 1 wide receiver who would fit pretty much any scheme.
It would be no surprise to see Robinson command $19 or $20 million per season on the open market. That’s what Keenan Allen got on his extension with the Chargers and what Amari Cooper re-signed for last offseason. The Bears have the option to use the franchise tag on Robinson — either to keep him or try to trade him.

3. Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers (25)

Godwin has a case to be the highest-paid wide receiver in the group. He is a complete player who can win at all levels and play outside or in the slot. Godwin was prolific in 2019 with 86 catches for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns. He battled injuries this season but still caught 65 balls for 840 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 regular-season games. The floor for Godwin is probably what Robert Woods got ($16.25 million annually), and Godwin could very well find a $20 million per year deal on the open market.

4. Justin Simmons, S, Broncos (27)

The Broncos used the franchise tag on Simmons last offseason, and he responded by earning a Pro Bowl bid. Simmons is the type of young difference-maker the Broncos should be looking to build around. He’s been the team’s Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee for two consecutive years and hasn’t missed a game in the last three seasons. Given his age and production, Simmons could very well set the top of the safety market. That would mean surpassing Budda Baker’s four-year, $59 million deal ($14.75 million annually).

5. Leonard Williams, DL, Giants (27)

The Giants sent a pair of draft picks to the Jets to acquire Williams in 2019 and then used the franchise tag on him. Williams turned in a career year in 2020 with 11.5 sacks (seventh league-wide) and 30 quarterback hits (third). Teams could view him as a player who is finally playing to his potential and entering his prime. Williams’ stock is higher than it would have been last offseason. He could land somewhere in the range of Kenny Clark’s deal (four years, $70 million) and DeForest Buckner’s deal (four years, $84 million). The Giants also have the option of using the franchise tag on him a second time, which would mean paying Williams roughly $19 million on a one-year deal for 2021.

6. Trent Williams, OT, 49ers (33)

After missing all of 2019, Williams was traded to the 49ers and played at a high level. He finished fourth among tackles in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and made the Pro Bowl. Williams is on the wrong side of 30, but left tackles of his caliber are hard to find, and he should still have plenty of suitors if he hits the open market. David Bakhtiari ($23 million per year) is currently the NFL’s top-paid tackle. The floor for a Williams deal could be the contract ($17 million per year) Garrett Bolles signed with the Broncos. One important note: As part of Williams’ restructured deal with San Francisco, the 49ers can’t use the franchise tag on him.

7. Yannick Ngakoue, Edge, Ravens (26)

He has had eight sacks or more in each of his first five seasons and has missed just two games in his career. That production and durability should get Ngakoue paid, especially given how young he is.
The Jaguars used the franchise tag on Ngakoue last offseason and then traded him to the Vikings. He played six games in Minnesota and then was dealt to Baltimore, where Ngakoue had his moments but was not a consistent difference-maker. The Ravens had him on the field for just 42 percent of the snaps and 36 percent of the snaps, respectively, in their two playoff games. Over the last five years, Ngakoue’s 45.5 sacks rank 12th, and his 95 QB hits rank tied for 14th. The Ravens can sign him to an extension, tag him again and keep him, tag and trade him or let him walk in free agency for a potential compensatory pick. Arik Armstead signed with the 49ers for $17 million per year last offseason, and Demarcus Lawrence got $21 million per year from the Cowboys. That’s likely the range that Ngakoue would be looking at on the open market.

8. Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions (27)

Golladay played in only five games last season because of a hip injury, but he’s been a difference-making receiver when he’s on the field. Golladay’s 2,253 yards across 2018 and 2019 ranked ninth among all wide receivers. He’s averaged 16.8 yards per reception for his career and is a terrific downfield threat who knows how to use his size to out-muscle opponents. As long as there are no lingering questions about Golladay’s hip injury, he should be in line to land a deal between $17 and $20 million per year.

9. Brandon Scherff, OG, Washington (29)

Washington used the franchise tag to keep Scherff last offseason. He made his fourth Pro Bowl, ranking fourth among guards in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric. The only question with Scherff is durability. He missed three games in 2020, five in 2019 and eight in 2018. But given how well he’s played when healthy, Scherff could become the NFL’s highest-paid guard and find a deal worth $15 million per year.
📷Shaquil Barrett (Matthew Emmons / USA Today)

10. Shaquil Barrett, Edge, Buccaneers (28)

He was dominant during the Bucs’ Super Bowl run with four sacks and eight quarterback hits in Tampa’s last two games. Barrett was a monster in 2019 (19.5 sacks, 37 QB hits and six forced fumbles), and the Bucs used the franchise tag to retain him. His regular-season numbers (eight sacks, 16 QB hits) weren’t as impressive in 2020, but he made his mark in the playoffs. The Buccaneers will have to decide whether to again use the franchise tag on Barrett, sign him to a long-term extension or let him walk in free agency.

11. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers (24)

He came into the league at a young age and is set to enter free agency at just 24. Smith-Schuster was hurt by terrible quarterback play in 2019 but bounced back with 97 catches for 831 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. He is a great option to work the middle, intermediate part of the field and brings a toughness that teams will find appealing. Players like Robert Woods, Adam Thielen and Cooper Kupp are in the neighborhood of $16 million per year. That seems like a reasonable floor for any potential deal with Smith-Schuster.

12. Bud Dupree, Edge, Steelers (28)

The Steelers used the franchise tag on him last offseason, and Dupree was playing at a high level before tearing an ACL in December, with eight sacks and 15 quarterback hits in 11 games. In 2019, he had 11.5 sacks and 17 quarterback hits. Intel on Dupree’s knee injury will obviously be key, but it’s relatively common now for players to return to full strength after ACL injuries. It’s possible that Dupree settles for a one-year deal and then tries to cash in next offseason. But given his age, production and versatility, it would be no surprise to see Dupree land a long-term deal that pays him north of $15 million per year.

13. Matt Judon, Edge, Ravens (29)

The Ravens used the franchise tag on Judon last offseason. He produced just six sacks, but his 21 QB hits were tied for 11th most in the league. Judon hit the quarterback on 8.5 percent of his pass-rush opportunities, which ranked third behind only T.J. Watt and Joey Bosa. Using the franchise tag again on Judon would cost north of $20 million. The Ravens could be forced to choose between Ngakoue and Judon, and it’s possible that they lose both players this offseason.

14. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers (26)

With 3,017 yards from scrimmage since the start of 2019 (fifth league-wide among running backs), Jones has been one of the NFL’s best all-around backs over the past two seasons. Aside from his talent and production, the case for signing Jones would be that he hasn’t had to carry a heavy workload in his first four seasons. In the last year, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon have signed deals between $12 million and $13 million per year. That could be the range Jones is looking for.

15. Lavonte David, LB, Buccaneers (31)

He was a key cog on one of the NFL’s best defenses and added a Super Bowl ring to an already impressive resume. David is on the wrong side of 30, but he has been durable and productive throughout his nine-year career. Since David entered the league in 2012, only Bobby Wagner has produced more tackles. David played at a high level in 2020 and will interest teams that are looking for a veteran leader and a three-down linebacker.

16. Corey Linsley, OC, Packers (30)

He’s started 99 games in seven seasons for the Packers and was named a first-team All-Pro in 2020. Linsley ranked fifth among centers in pass-block win rate. He will be the top option for teams in the market for a veteran center. Ryan Kelly signed a four-year, $49.65 million deal ($12.4 million per year) with the Colts in September. That could be a good comp for what Linsley commands on the open market.

17. Leonard Floyd, Edge, Rams (29)

The change of scenery served him well. The Bears released Floyd, and the Rams signed him to a one-year, $10 million deal. Floyd finished ninth in the league with 10.5 sacks and tied for 19th with 19 QB hits. He played 90 percent of the snaps and has not missed a game in the past three years.

18. Taylor Moton, OT, Panthers (27)

There’s a lot to like about Moton. He’s never missed a game and has been a rock-solid right tackle for Carolina. Ja’Wuan James got a four-year, $51 million deal with the Broncos in 2019, and Jack Conklin signed a three-year, $42 million deal with the Browns last offseason. Moton will likely be looking to get a deal in that range.

19. Joe Thuney, OG, Patriots (28)

The Patriots surprisingly used the franchise tag on Thuney last offseason. He’s started 80 consecutive games and been a solid, steady player. Thuney will likely be one of the top available guards on the market and could find a deal in the range of $14 million per year.
📷Corey Davis (Christopher Hanewinckel / USA Today)

20. Corey Davis, WR, Titans (26)

He picked the right time to have a career year. Davis had 65 catches for 984 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games in 2020. He hasn’t lived up to his draft slot (he was taken fifth in 2017), and the Titans declined his fifth-year option, but Davis is still young and offers the floor of a No. 2 wide receiver. Teams could talk themselves into him having a No. 1 wide receiver ceiling. The advanced numbers are kind to Davis. He averaged 2.73 yards per route run in the regular season, which ranked eighth among 276 qualifying players.

21. Matt Milano, LB, Bills (27)

He’s a true three-down linebacker whose skill set should fit any scheme. Milano is coming off of an injury-riddled 2020 when he started five regular-season games and played 30 percent of the defensive snaps, but durability had not been a major issue previously. Based on recent deals signed by guys like Cory Littleton and Zach Cunningham, Milano seems likely to command between $12 million and $14 million per year.

22. William Jackson III, CB, Bengals (28)

It’s not an especially strong group of cornerback free agents, which could be good news for Jackson. He hasn’t been a shutdown, Pro Bowl-caliber player and has just three interceptions in 59 career games, but Jackson has played well. He’s a talented cover corner, and there’s always a market for those guys.

23. Shaquill Griffin, CB, Seahawks (26)

He’s been a four-year starter since Seattle selected him in the third round in 2017. Griffin has speed and length and should be able to fit any defensive scheme. He missed four games this season with injuries, but durability has not been a long-term issue. It would be no surprise to see a team project that Griffin’s best days are still ahead of him. He should be among the highest-paid corners in this free-agent class.

24. Carl Lawson, Edge, Bengals (26)

He’s another player who made the most out of his contract year. Lawson had just 5.5 sacks, but his 32 QB hits ranked second to only Watt. Some teams may view Lawson more as a rotational pass rusher than an every-down player, although he played a career-high 68 percent of the defensive snaps in 2020 and has been consistently productive. Lawson’s 83 QB hits over the past four seasons are tied for 11th league-wide.

25. Marcus Maye, S, Jets (28)

He was one of the few bright spots for the Jets in 2020. Maye could be a nice free safety option in Robert Saleh’s defensive scheme. He hasn’t missed a start in the past two years and played 100 percent of the snaps last season. If the Jets don’t re-sign him before he hits the market, Maye should have plenty of suitors.

26. John Johnson, S, Rams (25)

He was limited to six games due to an injury in 2019 but came back strong and played 100 percent of the Rams’ defensive snaps. Johnson has been used more as a strong safety but can play deep in split-safety looks. He’s young and has the intangibles teams will find attractive.

27. Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Saints (26)

He made the most of his contract year, finishing second league-wide with 13.5 sacks and tied for eighth with 25 quarterback hits. Hendrickson had never played more than 38 percent of the defensive snaps in a season prior to 2020, when he was on the field 53 percent of the time. Teams will have to weigh his 2020 production against previous years to determine whether Hendrickson is a one-year wonder or an ascending player. He had 6.5 sacks and 18 QB hits during his first three seasons.

28. Haason Reddick, Edge/LB, Cardinals (27)

He had a big second half of the season and finished with 12.5 sacks, which was tied for fourth league-wide. Reddick’s role in Arizona has changed about 400 times in four seasons, but he has shown pass-rushing chops. He’s a hybrid-type player who could be really fun with the right defensive coordinator.

29. Will Fuller, WR, Texans (27)

The question with Fuller has never been talent but durability. He missed 22 games in his first four seasons. Fuller was turning in a career year through 11 games in 2020 but was suspended for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. He had 53 catches for 879 yards and eight touchdowns. Fuller is the type of vertical field-stretcher that teams covet. He’ll be a boom-or-bust free agent.
📷Marcus Williams (Derick E. Hingle / USA Today)

30. Marcus Williams, S, Saints (25)

Williams is young and durable. He’s missed just four games in four seasons and played well in 2020. Williams should be among the more attractive starting-caliber free safety options available on the open market.

31. Anthony Harris, S, Vikings (29)

The Vikings surprisingly tagged him last offseason, and Harris had an up-and-down 2020 while adjusting his role and responsibilities to account for Minnesota’s young and inexperienced cornerbacks. He should still be an attractive option for teams in need of a reliable, rangy free safety who can make plays on the ball.

32. Nelson Agholor, WR, Raiders (28)

After a disappointing 2019 with the Eagles, Agholor settled for a one-year, $1.05 million deal with the Raiders. He made the most of his opportunity, catching 48 balls for 896 yards and averaging 18.7 yards per reception. He should have a much different market this time around.

33. Curtis Samuel, WR, Panthers (25)

Coaches often fall in love with players like Samuel, who can offer speed and versatility. Samuel set career highs with 77 catches for 851 yards in 2020, and he was much more efficient than he had been previously, catching 79.4 percent of his targets. The Panthers used Samuel as a ballcarrier, too — he had 41 carries for 200 yards. With the right offensive coach, Samuel is a really fun player. With the wrong one, he could be a bust. But he produced his career season at the perfect time to get paid and is one of the youngest players on this list.

34. Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers (26)

The Chargers tagged Henry last offseason. He finished the year with 613 receiving yards — 12th among tight ends. Henry averaged 1.35 yards per route run, which ranked 31st among tight ends. Austin Hooper got a four-year, $42 million deal last offseason. Given how young Henry is, he could be in line for a similar deal if a team thinks his best football is still ahead of him.

35. Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans (26)

He’s a good example of how teams might be willing to pay for future projection over past performance. Smith has made a lot of big plays, but his career high for receiving yards in a season — set this year — is 448. Smith also set a career high with eight touchdowns in 2020. His talent is obvious, and teams could view Smith as a player who could put up big numbers if given more opportunities in a pass-heavy offense.

36. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, Giants (27)

He’s started 64 games in four seasons and has been a steady presence on the Giants’ defensive line. Tomlinson has seven sacks and 19 quarterback hits over the past two seasons. He’ll be a nice option for teams in the market for a run-stopping defensive tackle, and some may view Tomlinson as a player with pass-rushing upside. D.J. Reader got a four-year $53 million deal from the Cincinnati Bengals last offseason. That’s probably the ceiling for a potential Tomlinson contract.

37. Justin Houston, Edge, Colts (32)

He’s on the wrong side of 30, but Houston continues to produce. He was eighth among edge defenders in pass-rush win rate and had eight sacks to go along with 12 QB hits. Houston signed a two-year, $23 million contract with the Colts in 2019. It’s possible he finds a similar deal on the open market.

38. Melvin Ingram, Edge, Chargers (32)

It was a tough contract year for Ingram. He appeared in seven games before heading to injured reserve with a knee injury. Ingram has had a very good career, but he finished 2020 with no sacks and four QB hits. If healthy, Ingram is a disruptive player and a versatile pass rusher capable of lining up in different spots. His market will likely come down to whether teams are confident he can bounce back from the injury.

39. Romeo Okwara, Edge, Lions (26)

He made the most of his contract year. Okwara finished 10th with 10 sacks and tied for 22nd with 18 QB hits. However, teams will have to balance that production with Okwara’s first four seasons, when he totaled 10 sacks in 51 games. He’s one of the trickier players to project on this list, but given Okwara’s age, there’s reason to think he could be an ascending player.
📷Alejandro Villanueva (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

40. Alejandro Villanueva, OT, Steelers (33)

There’s always a market for starting-caliber left tackles. Villanueva didn’t become a starter until he was 27. He’s never missed a game and is a two-time Pro Bowler, although 2020 was not his best season. Given Villanueva’s age, teams may view him as a declining player, but he plays a premium position. The two-year, $33 million deal that Anthony Castonzo signed last offseason is probably the ceiling for what Villanueva could land.

41. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts (31)

He started off slow but came on strong in the second half of the season and finished with 56 catches for 762 yards and five touchdowns. Just two years ago, Hilton totaled 1,270 yards with Andrew Luck as his quarterback. He’s older than the other receivers on this list but should still have at least a couple of years left as a starting-caliber player. If a team needs wide receiver help but doesn’t have the cap space to target the top of the market, Hilton at around $9 million per year could make sense.

42. Jadeveon Clowney, Edge, Titans (28)

He was searching for a big payday last offseason but didn’t find it and had to settle for a one-year, $13 million deal with the Titans. Now Clowney’s stock is likely to be significantly lower. He failed to notch a single sack in eight games and then underwent season-ending knee surgery. Clowney might have a hard time finding the deal he’s looking for once again this offseason.

43. Richard Sherman, CB, 49ers (33)

He’s a tough player to slot. Sherman will be 33 at the start of next season and appeared in only five games in 2020 because of injury. He was 30 when he signed with the 49ers in 2018 and delivered two great years, making the Pro Bowl in 2019. If healthy, Sherman can still be effective. But given his age, he might be looking at another incentive-laden deal or a one-year contract.

44. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Buccaneers (32)

He returned to action in 2020 after a one-year hiatus and started every game, playing 75 percent of the Bucs’ offensive snaps. Gronkowski was outstanding as a blocker and showed he can still be effective as a receiver, catching 45 balls for 623 yards and seven touchdowns. It’s hard to picture him catching passes from anyone other than Tom Brady, but Gronkowski should draw interest if he wants to look elsewhere.

45. Patrick Peterson, CB, Cardinals (31)

He’s another tough player to slot. Peterson was suspended for six games in 2019 for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. He played 99 percent of the Cardinals’ defensive snaps in 2020 but looked like a declining player. Peterson has put together a Hall of Fame-caliber resume and, at his best, is an elite man corner. But his best days are behind him, and interested teams will have to determine how much to invest in Peterson at this stage of his career.

46. Cam Robinson, OT, Jaguars (25)

He’s been Jacksonville’s left tackle with 47 starts over the past four seasons. Robinson has been OK, not great, but competent 25-year-old left tackles generally get paid in free agency.

47. Michael Davis, CB, Chargers (26)

After originally signing with the Chargers as an undrafted free agent in 2017, Davis has developed into a quality starting corner. He has size at 6-foot-2 with athletic traits, and he is young. Davis was on the field for 92 percent of the Chargers’ defensive snaps in 2020 and has been a contributing player for three seasons. Teams will likely view Davis as a number two corner, but his best days could be ahead of him.

48. Desmond King, CB, Titans (26)

He was a first-team All-Pro selection in 2018, but King’s performance dipped, and the Chargers ended up trading him to the Titans in November. King will likely be viewed by most teams as a nickel or a hybrid defensive back who can also be an option in the return game.

49. Daryl Williams, OT, Bills (29)

He settled for a one-year, $2.25 million deal last offseason but played well as a 16-game starter at right tackle for one of the league’s best offenses. Williams should have a significantly stronger market than he did a year ago.
📷Cam Newton (Brian Fluharty / USA Today)

50. Cam Newton, QB, Patriots (32)

His season in New England didn’t go according to plan. Newton finished the season ranked 30th in QBR, and the Patriots missed the playoffs. But he also played with one of the league’s worst supporting casts. If you’re looking for a glass-half-full view, Newton stayed healthy and ran for 513 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Patriots could opt to bring him back with a younger quarterback, or Newton could see if he can find a starting job elsewhere. Last offseason, he settled for a one-year, $1.75 million deal. And Newton is again hitting the market at a bad time, given all the quarterback options available via trade.

Players you might yell at me about for not including:

Jameis Winston, QB, Saints (27) Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Dolphins (38) Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears (27) Jacoby Brissett, QB, Colts (28) Andy Dalton, QB, Cowboys (32) Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks (27) Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers (26) Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals (27) James Conner, RB, Steelers (26) James White, RB, Patriots (29) Le’Veon Bell, RB, Chiefs (29) Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs (28) Breshad Perriman, WR, Jets (28) Antonio Brown, WR, Buccaneers (33) A.J. Green, WR, Bengals (33) Marvin Jones, WR, Lions (31) Josh Reynolds, WR, Rams (26) Gerald Everett, TE, Rams (27) Russell Okung, OT, Panthers (32) Kelvin Beachum, OT, Cardinals (32) Matt Feiler, OT, Steelers (29) Jon Feliciano, OG, Bills (29) Germain Ifedi, OG, Bears (27) Austin Reiter, OC, Chiefs (29) David Andrews, OC, Patriots (29) Alex Mack, OC, Falcons (35) Denico Autry, Edge, Colts (31) Everson Griffen, DE, Lions (33) Ryan Kerrigan, Edge, Washington (33) Aldon Smith, Edge, Cowboys (32) Olivier Vernon, Edge, Browns (30) Takk McKinley, Edge, Falcons/Raiders (25) Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Browns (27) D.J. Jones, DT, 49ers (26) Ndamukong Suh, DT, Buccaneers (34) Shelby Harris, DT, Broncos (30) K.J. Wright, LB, Seahawks (32) Jayon Brown, LB, Titans (26) Denzel Perryman, LB, Chargers (28) Reggie Ragland, LB, Lions (28) Anthony Walker, LB, Colts (26) Eric Wilson, LB, Vikings (27) Bashaud Breeland, CB, Chiefs (29) Jason Verrett, CB, 49ers (30) Mike Hilton, DB, Steelers (27) Cameron Sutton, DB, Steelers (26) Ronald Darby, CB, Washington (27) Brian Poole, CB, Jets (28) Mackensie Alexander, CB, Bengals (27) K’Waun Williams, CB, 49ers (30) Troy Hill, CB, Rams (30) Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Cowboys (26) Xavier Rhodes, CB, Colts (31) Rasul Douglas, CB, Panthers (27) Quinton Dunbar, CB, Seahawks (29) Kevin King, CB, Packers (26) Terrance Mitchell, CB, Browns (29) Brian Poole, CB, Jets (28) Tashaun Gipson, S, Bears (31) Duron Harmon, S, Lions (30) Rayshawn Jenkins, S, Chargers (27) Keanu Neal, S, Falcons (26) Xavier Woods, S, Cowboys (26)

Happy Wild Card Week, /NFL! I hope everyone had a great 2020 playing along and continue with us into the 2021 postseason. We're in playoff territory now, with Wild Card weekend coming up. For the regular season, Week 17 gave me a 12-4 result, bringing me to 166-90 out of 256 games (64.84% correct). I would love to hear everyone else's final results if you all want to post them.

Saturday, January 9th

Matchup	Time/Network	Winner	Comments
Colts @ Bills	1:05p ET on CBS	Bills	The Bills have a their first home playoff game since 1996, congrats to them. The Colts can cause them some offensive problems with Taylor against a shaky run D. Indy can also force Allen to try and sustain drives instead of getting big pass plays. Allen is playing well and is capable of spreading the ball around, working the middle of the field to WR Beasley and getting help from TE Knox. The Colts also don't have a true shutdown corner for Diggs. It's easier to expect Allen over Rivers to make the clutch throws to win a game this season.
Rams @ Seahawks	4:40p ET on FOX	Seahawks	The Rams have it tough this week. They're in a situation right now at QB, going with either a banged-up Goff or a guy who only has one career start under his belt (Wolford). On one hand, you could say it would be smarter to start Goff if he's healthy enough to play, but Goff is coming off thumb surgery and I would definitely have to rank the thumb as the most important finger for a QB. Although Wolford had a solid debut in Week 17, he only led the Rams to nine points. The Rams are playing a Seahawks team that has never lost a home playoff game under Carroll and are expected to have their starting O-line on the field.
Buccaneers @ Washington	8:15p ET on NBC	Buccaneers	The Bucs hope to have Evans healthy to help red-hot Brady along with Godwin, Brown, Gronk and the running game. As well as Brady is playing, this isn't the greatest spot for his pass protection against Young and Washington's front four. The Bucs' defense will contain the run, but Smith has three dangerous receiving weapons in McLaurin, Thomas and McKissic to have success moving the ball on short-to-intermediate throws. Ultimately, Tampa Bay wins comfortably as expected, but Washington works the number and keeps it to a touchdown loss with inspired play for Rivera.

Sunday, January 10th

Matchup	Time/Network	Winner	Comments
Ravens @ Titans	1:05p ET on ESPN/ABC	Ravens	Toss up pick for me. Jackson is still looking for his first playoff win after two home losses. He's relaxed and revved up as a passer, and he keeps running at a high level, sparked by Dobbins sharing the backfield with him. Look for the Ravens to get aggressive passing with him to build a lead, and limit Henry from being a consistent gateway to Tannehill's play-action downfield passing. The Ravens and Titans are playing similar offensive games at the moment, but the Titans' defensive woes catch up to them here.
Bears @ Saints	4:40p ET on CBS/Nickelodeon/Amazon Prime	Saints	The Saints are the biggest favorites of WC Weekend with a double-digit projected lead over the Bears. They have owned this matchup rather easily the past two seasons, with both games being played in Chicago. The Saints will have a rested backfield with Kamara and Murray not playing in Week 17, and they will pound away often at the Bears with them. The Saints won't sleep against another NFC North visitor like they did against the Vikings. NOLA can contain the running of Montgomery and put the game in the hands of Trubisky, which won't end well against the Saints' pressure on the road. Food for thought; Brees, Kamara, and Thomas were on the field together for only two games last season. This will be the first time since September the Saints will be at fully power offensively.
Browns @ Steelers	8:15p ET on NBC	Steelers	The Browns got their needed win over the Steelers in Cleveland in Week 17 to make the playoffs and force this rematch, but it took everything from them defensively and offensively to survive against a resting team not starting Big Ben. Pittsburgh will show their stouter run D and that will set them up to put consistent pressure on Baker, who doesn't respond well when throwing at a high volume with guys in his face. Big Ben will go to work on a Browns' secondary that has plenty of coverage holes away from Ward. Losing Vernon up front to flank Garrett also hurts. The Steelers ended up making a wise decision to not show the Browns much in way of a real game plan. The Steelers' defense reasserts itself with more offensive help than usual to win comfortable against a COVID-depleted Browns team.

Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck!
Update: 4-2, on to the Divisional Round.
Divisional Round based off current predictions.

The Giants have already started looking ahead to next season. But the offseason kicks into high gear now that the Super Bowl is over.
Once again, the Giants are trying to find a path back to contention. There were baby steps made during Joe Judge’s first season as head coach, but plenty of work remains.
Here’s my 10-step plan to get the Giants back on track: 1. Cut veterans to create salary cap space
The salary cap for 2021 hasn’t been set. The league and NFLPA agreed before last season that the cap can’t be lower than $175 million despite the revenue shortfall caused by COVID-19. The sides will negotiate on the actual number in the coming weeks, with ESPN reporting $180 million as likely. That would be $18 million less than the 2020 cap and much lower than the approximately $215 million teams were budgeting for before the pandemic hit.
The Giants currently have $181 million in cap commitments for 2021, so they’re clearly going to need to make moves to create space. Wide receiver Golden Tate, tackle Nate Solder and tight end Levine Toilolo are obvious cap casualties.
Tate’s four-year, $37.5 million contract looked like a mistake the moment it was signed in 2019. It looks even worse now after he had just 35 catches for 388 yards and two touchdowns in 2020. The 32-year-old has a $10.9 million cap hit for 2021. That’s far too much for a 32-year-old wide receiver who has been suspended for five games in his two seasons in New York. The Giants can create $6.1 million in cap savings while eating $4.7 million in dead money by cutting Tate.
The four-year, $62 million contract Solder signed in 2018 was another mistake. The financial implications of getting out of the deal were complicated by Solder’s decision to opt out of the 2020 season. That move pushed Solder’s contract back a year, and his cap hit for 2021 is $16.5 million. The Giants can create $6 million in cap savings while eating $10.5 million in dead money if they cut Solder. The cap impact would be the same if Solder retires.
There’s a possibility that the Giants could designate Solder as a June 1 cut. That would create $10 million in cap savings while leaving $6.5 million in dead money in 2021 and $4 million in dead money in 2022. The catch is that the $10 million in savings wouldn’t be available until June 1, well after the top free agents have signed.
It was a head-scratcher when the Giants gave Toilolo a two-year, $6.2 million contract with $3.2 million guaranteed last offseason. Cutting Toilolo, who made no impact as the No. 3 tight end, is a no-brainer since the Giants can create $2.95 million in cap savings with no dead money.
Those three moves would create $15.1 million in cap savings while leaving $15.2 million in dead money. The Giants could also cut linebacker David Mayo ($2.3 million cap savings, no dead money), cornerback Isaac Yiadom ($2.2 million cap savings, no dead money) and wide receiver Cody Core ($2 million cap savings, no dead money) to create another $6.5 million in cap space. But there’s value to having some veterans for depth, and those players can be cut at any time to create cap space.
2. Lower Kevin Zeitler’s cap hit
Right guard Kevin Zeitler has a $14.5 million cap hit for 2021. The Giants would create $12 million in cap savings with $2.5 million in dead money if they cut Zeitler. But it’s hard to imagine the Giants being comfortable going into 2021 with a Will Hernandez-Shane Lemieux pairing at guard.
The Giants could cut Zeitler and use part of the savings on a veteran replacement. But the best option may be giving Zeitler a modest extension to reduce his cap hit in 2021. The Giants could tear up the final year of Zeitler’s existing deal and give him a new three-year contract worth $27.075 million. That type of extension could cut Zeitler’s 2021 cap hit in half if the Giants reduce his salary to the $1.075 million league minimum and give him a $12 million signing bonus. Here’s a back-of-the-napkin look at this projected contract:
Projected Zeitler ExtensionSALARYSB PRORATIONCAP HIT2021$1.075M$6.5M$7.575M2022$6M$4M$10M2023$8M$4M$12M
This extension would make Zeitler’s 2021 cap hit $7.575 million, creating $6.925 million in cap savings to spend this offseason. The Giants would have a strong commitment to Zeitler in 2022 ($8 million dead money if cut) and then could cut ties with just $4 million in dead money in 2023.
The appeal for Zeitler, who turns 31 in March, is that he’d get $13.075 million guaranteed (2021 salary and signing bonus). It’s unlikely that he’d get that much on the open market if cut by the Giants this offseason.
For the Giants, an extension would allow them to create some cap space without compromising their offensive line.
3. Extend Jabrill Peppers
Longtime readers know I’m a strong proponent of extending players early. Safety Jabrill Peppers is due $6.8 million in 2021 on his fifth-year option. He made $10.3 million in the first four years of his rookie contract. Peppers likely would be receptive to a long-term deal that offers guaranteed money, while teams can typically get a discount if they extend a player early since it eliminates the risk of injury in the contract year.
Safeties Tre Boston and Vonn Bell signed three-year, $18 million contracts last offseason. Those are comparable players, so a similar deal would be fair for Peppers. Here’s what a three-year extension with $18 million in new money, including an $8 million signing bonus, could look like:
Projected Peppers ExtensionSALARYSB PRORATIONCAP HIT2021$990K$2M$2.99M2022$4M$2M$6M2023$6M$2M$8M2024$6M$2M$8M
Peppers would get a total of $13 million guaranteed if his 2021 and 2022 salaries were guaranteed in addition to the signing bonus. Meanwhile, his 2021 cap hit would decrease to $3 million, creating nearly $4 million in cap savings to be used this offseason.
Perhaps Peppers would reject this type of offer and bet on himself to boost his value in 2021. The Giants certainly shouldn’t break the bank for him. It would only be worth doing an early extension if they get solid value. But it’s worth exploring, as cap space is at a premium this offseason and Peppers’ price tag will only increase with another strong season.
4. Make offensive changes
All signs point toward the Giants bringing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett back for a second season. But there needs to be changes offensively beyond the personnel. Judge and his staff are undergoing an extensive self-scouting process this offseason.
The Giants need to adopt some of the tactics found in the league’s best offenses — more pre-snap motion, more deep passes, route combinations that free up receivers, etc. The return of a healthy Saquon Barkley, the acquisition of playmakers and an improved line will help the offense. But the Giants need to scheme more explosive plays in 2021.
5. Explore trades for Evan Engram
The Giants shouldn’t dump Engram, but they should at least consider a trade due to his $6 million cap hit after a disappointing 2020 season. Engram doesn’t seem like a long-term fit, so the Giants should see if they can get a mid-round pick in a trade (which could be used on a two-way tight end).
It would be tough to eliminate one of the team’s few offensive weapons, but Engram’s inconsistency was a detriment in 2020, and the Giants should replace his production by making other upgrades this offseason. The Giants reportedly received multiple inquiries for Engram at the trade deadline but would only listen if a team offered a first-round pick. They should lower their asking price and see if they can get a Day 2 pick for Engram.
6. Re-sign Leonard Williams
The Giants really have no choice but to re-sign Williams. They gave up a pair of mid-round picks to acquire Williams during the 2019 season and then paid him $16.1 million on the franchise tag in 2020. Williams delivered a monster 11.5-sack season in 2020, so the Giants need to lock him up since their faith in his talent has been rewarded.
It would be preferable to avoid another franchise tag since that would guarantee Williams $19.3 million in 2021 and set a floor for an annual salary in negotiations for a long-term deal. But Williams’ performance likely drove his market into that range anyway, so the Giants could begrudgingly tag him again if extension talks stall before the March 7 tag deadline.
The Giants run the risk of a team blowing Williams away with an offer if he reaches the open market. The tag essentially maintains exclusive negotiating rights for the Giants, and both sides should be more open to a long-term deal than they were a year ago. A four-year, $80 million contract should work for Williams and the Giants.
7. Let Dalvin Tomlinson walk
The time to re-sign Dalvin Tomlinson was last offseason, when the defensive tackle became eligible for an extension entering the final year of his rookie contract. Tomlinson’s price tag increased with another strong season, as he’ll likely command around $13 million per year.
The Giants have to decide if they can afford to pay top dollar for two defensive linemen with another, Dexter Lawrence, due for a big payday in the near future. Tough decisions need to be made, especially on a roster with so many holes, so the Giants should let Tomlinson walk and hope the defensive line can remain a strength with Williams, Lawrence and B.J. Hill.
The Giants don’t have any other pressing decisions with their own free agents. It would be nice to re-sign Wayne Gallman as the No. 2 running back, but he likely earned a shot at a larger role elsewhere. The Giants should re-sign long snapper Casey Kreiter, while quarterback Colt McCoy, tackle Cameron Fleming, defensive tackle Austin Johnson and outside linebacker Kyler Fackrell could return in backup roles if the price is right.
8. Sign a top WR, then bargain hunt in free agency
The Giants need to upgrade their wide receiver corps, but it’s hard to envision them outbidding other receiver-needy teams with mountains of cap space for the top options (Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin). That doesn’t mean the Giants should sit out a free agent wide receiver class that has some appealing second-tier options.
Tennessee’s Corey Davis is a 26-year-old former No. 5 overall pick coming off the best season of his career. The Giants would be betting on Davis reaching a higher ceiling than the other options in this group. Curtis Samuel was a 2017 second-round pick by Giants general manager Dave Gettleman in Carolina. The 24-year-old had 77 catches for 851 yards and 41 carries for 200 yards in 2020. Samuel isn’t the prototypical No. 1 receiver the Giants need, but he can be an explosive playmaker in a creative offense. There are some older, proven options, such as Indianapolis’ T.Y. Hilton and Detroit’s Marvin Jones, while Nelson Agholor, who averaged 18.7 yards per catch for the Raiders last season, could be an affordable big-play threat.
Those names may not excite fans, but adding a quality wide receiver will give the Giants flexibility in the draft. They can take a top wide receiver if one is available with the 11th pick, but they’ll also have the freedom to take a player at another position if they’ve already added a receiver in free agency.
Spending on a receiver and re-signing Williams will take a big bite out of the Giants’ cap space. The best course then would be bargain hunting to fill their other holes — edge rusher, No. 2 cornerback, offensive line. There may be more options than usual since other teams will need to make cuts to get under the cap.
The Giants landed Logan Ryan on a one-year, $6.5 million contract last summer after the safety’s market didn’t develop as he hoped. There should be more players who opt for one-year deals this offseason in the hopes of cashing in when the cap presumably increases significantly in 2022. Being patient could pay off with good value after the first wave of free agency passes.
9. Draft best player available at No. 11
The “benefit” of the numerous holes on the Giants roster is they can take the best player available with the 11th pick and fill a need in the process. They’re not in a spot where they only need to fill one hole, so they can have an open mind entering the draft.
There will be clamoring for a wide receiver at No. 11, and that’s a logical avenue, assuming one of the top three prospects (LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, Alabama’s Devonta Smith or Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle) are available. But that’s where signing a quality wide receiver in free agency gives the Giants flexibility. The Giants won’t need to draft a receiver if a top player at another position falls into their laps at No. 11, but they’d have the option to double up at receiver in free agency and the draft to give the offense a major jolt.
Florida tight end/receiver Kyle Pitts is a wild card who could be the game-changing weapon Engram was supposed to be. Top cornerbacks Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech) and Patrick Surtain (Alabama) will be appealing if they’re available. Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons could be an athletic playmaker to lift the defense to new heights if he slides out of the top 10. The offensive line remains an unfinished product, so Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater could be an option. There aren’t any strong edge rusher candidates for the 11th pick now, but that could change over the next three months as teams get more familiar with prospects.
Whichever position the Giants address in the first round (my hunch is wide receiver based on the front office’s public emphasis on adding playmakers), they can fill other holes in the middle rounds. Their second-round pick might be the sweet spot to land an edge player who can step into a rotation as a rookie. The Giants could use a “traditional” tight end, offensive line depth, a defensive tackle if Tomlinson leaves and a cornerback later in the draft if they take a wide receiver and edge rusher with their first two picks.
10. Exercise Saquon Barkley’s fifth-year option
Picking up Barkley’s fifth-year option for 2022 is an easy decision. It should cost around $8 million and will be fully guaranteed when it’s exercised.
The Giants should table any extension talks unless Barkley is spooked by his torn ACL and desperate for long-term security. That’s unlikely considering his four-year, $31.2 million rookie contract is fully guaranteed and he has significant off-field earnings.
Ideally, the Giants will have the discipline to take things year-to-year with Barkley since so many teams have regretted handing premature extensions to running backs. The fifth-year option will give the Giants another year of control over Barkley’s services.
If the Giants follow this plan, they’ll create roughly $26 million cap savings for 2021 by cutting Tate, Solder and Toilolo, and extending Zeitler and Peppers. That’s more than enough to re-sign Williams and a receiver like Davis. The leftovers can be spent on filling holes with bargains.
I don’t love that this plan doesn’t add a premier edge rusher, but the Giants can’t fill every hole in one offseason, especially with the reduced cap. Veteran edge rushers always seem to be available for one-year deals, so that’s a position the Giants can address that way and with a Day 2 pick. A similar approach could work at cornerback and right tackle.
Judge doesn’t want to cut corners in the rebuild, so the Giants need to keep an eye on the long-term. Spending wisely and drafting well should help the Giants take another step closer to contending.