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casino theoretical win equation

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[Q] Gambling, Martingale, and Teleportation Machines

Greetings,
My question is more a theory about gambling, specifically roulette, and the make things easier let's remove the greens from the equation, so just for this thought we'll say the wheel only has two options, black, and red.
Each individual spin has the same statistical chance to land on red or black, 50\50, right?
Gambler's fallacy tells us that some individuals fall prey to the belief that "past observations impact future outcomes" Example, if you see the wheel spin twice black in a row, you may think the chances it spins red next time is increased, however it remains the same, 50\50 every single spin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
The Martingale System of betting, is where you double your bet each loss, so that when you finally "hit" you win back all previous losses + 1 betting unit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability_theory))
I say all of this to ask, if you had a magical time machine, that could teleport you to ANY casino across the world, specifically to any roulette wheel, and allow you to place a bet, however the door to the time machine ONLY unlocked after there had been either 10+ reds in a row, or 10+ blacks in a row, and you would be betting on ONLY the 11th+ spin and onward, at these casinos.
Do you think you would find that your win rate would budge at all from the 50% W\L rate if you're ONLY making bets after an "anomaly" of 10+ red\black spins in a row have occured?
I know the odds are always 50\50, I get that, however if you spin the wheel 1,000,000,000 times, or whatever it may be, there should be some level of "error" however there has to be limits? Thigns should generally speaking, within some level of error, be "about 50\50, right?
Things should regress to the mean over time shouldn't they? IF we spin the wheel and it somehow lands on red 50+ times in a row, we KNOW that it will be black at some point, because 50% of the wheel is black, so aren't we moving closer and closer, on the "timeline" towards a guaranteed black spin? making it theoretically "more likely"?
In our betting scenario where we are ONLY betting after 10+ red or blacks in a row, aren't we being opportunistic, to the spins "regressing" to the mean, because we know that it must return back to the rough average at some point? we know that it is IMPOSSIBLE for the streak to continue, it MUST be broken, and therefore we are getting closer and closer to our win each spin.
Am I way off base here?
Thanks for any contribution!
submitted by biteandchew to statistics [link] [comments]

The Ant-Man Campaign - Limited-Time Event Drop Rates? A Step In the Wrong Direction

I know I'm not the only one commenting on this issue. More than likely this will be discussed ad nauseam. However, I do feel it is appropriate to compare this to the events that have proceeded it, the Pros and Cons I see within this event, and ultimately express why I feel this is much more of a regression than a progression for this game.
I would also like to please ask beforehand that toxicity in the comments be avoided. I think this is a big topic that should be discussed so that the players who love and invest both their time and money in this game can enjoy what they put their efforts towards. Thank you in advance.
TL/DR: I do not agree with having abysmal drop rates in a limited time event. I feel it is detrimental to both the game and the community. I will be sending in a support ticket, and if you would like, please feel free to send one in too.
To begin with, lets list out this event in a nutshell.
This Ant-Man event has presented us with an alternative campaign where we will fight with our S.T.R.I.K.E. team alongside the smallest Avenger.
Just like the other events, each Ant-Man orb drops between 5 and 20 shards, depending on how RNJesus is feeling towards you (typically, he lives an apathetic life).
Pros:
Cons:
And that's honestly pretty much it. We have 14 days of doing these campaign missions for chances to get orb fragments to unlock Ant-Man. Pretty straightforward, fairly simple, right? Yes, yes it really is. So what's the problem?
Two Words. Drop Rate
This is not the first time this game has demonstrated that this drop rate is this game's biggest hindrance. Just from communicating with my alliance members, who all rushed through the campaign and burned through at least 400 energy (100 energy starting + 3*50 PC refills), we just barely unlocked a single Ant-Man Orb, and that's INCLUDING THE GUARANTEED 1ST-WIN DROPS. That's 24 of us (literally, all of us were on and talking about this) who are only sitting at roughly 500 Fragments after the first orb opening. This does not look good. Extrapolate this to over 14 days... this is worse than a crawl. For all you F2P players like me, this means good luck in getting Ant-Man unlocked, much less to 3 stars.
Like many people, I was excited to see this new content. I'm still excited, and I hope this message isn't being taken the wrong way. I want this game to succeed: I enjoy the game play, I enjoy the community, and I even enjoy logging on just see that people still knock me down in my Arena every now and then (yeah, payback is always sweet).
However, I do not feel that such a grind belongs in a limited-time event. Being in the main campaign with an abysmal grind is one thing. It allows the slowing of progression so that there is a chance to either catch up to the whales and/or focus/prioritize your investments. With that said, there is quite literally no benefit to the players for investing time and energy in this event to get nothing in return. It leads to disappointment and frustration, and while numbers may show that more people are logging on and playing, that is not the end of the road in this discussion. Logging in and spending energy just for a slap in the face is the toxicity that can destroy a community and player base, even one that has been as helpful and optimistic as this one. Besides the numbers alone, I believe the quality of a game's community should also be factored in to their equations. I don't want to see something like a drop rate tear this community, and eventually the game itself, apart. At least with the raids we knew there would be a payout of Fragments at the end...
There are a number of things that I think would remedy this situation, yet I cannot express enough how low drop rates during a limited time event are detrimental. They even removing that subtle joy players got from completing event raid; it has destroyed the security of an investment for these events. In my opinion, there shouldn't be a drop rate, it should be a certainty. But even something as small as revealing the drop rates would be more comforting for the players than letting us just gamble away our energy.
I know that there is a Dev that has commented on this page before. Yet, I have not seen all that much engagement nor use from this person. Instead, as many of you may heard via the recommendations of MobileGamer and CasinoOwner (BTW, you guys along with ValleyFlyin have taught me so much about this game. Much thanks to all of you for your content and support for this game and community), the best way to confront this issue is by sending in Support Tickets. If you feel that this is also a big deal, then please feel free to send one of your own. I will specifically be asking them to both disclose the drop rates and to eliminate the drop rates completely from limited time events in this instance and moving forward.
I know that it is wordy, so thank you for those that have read all the way through, and I would really enjoy hearing your opinions on this matter in the comments.
submitted by TheDocSynergy14 to MarvelStrikeForce [link] [comments]

More Interesting Times (Part 2)

More Interesting Times (Part 2)
by Jayge 8^J
In 2017, Jeff Bezos of Amazon is said to have made $107 million a day on average, adding $40 billion to his fortune, now estimated at $150 billion. Every year war, disease, poverty, illiteracy, and famine remain unresolved, while our billionaire blight grows. Are these mere coincidences or something far more serious? Tim predicted that for each of the next 10 years that same pattern will continue, making matters ever worse than they are today. Billionaires create poverty & misery in society, not wealth. Speaking of worthless billionaires brings us to covfefe, psycho liar Trump and his 3,001 'alt-truths' since his fat ass landed in the Oval Office. “We must make our choice. We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we cannot have both.” ― Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis, a Zionist before Zionism turned ugly. Trump's now angling for a Nobel Peace Prize, yet we know it's really about his ego and profiteering. Supporters say he's a real estate branding genius playing 4D chess, but we see shameless chutzpah & 1D checkers. What about his Trump U. swindle? Lady Liberty and Mother Earth better beware of Trump, like demon Kissinger, cuz the republic has never been in worse hands. His new top Jewish economic adviser is Larry Kudlow, who allegedly was ousted from Bear Stearns senior management in the mid-90s with a monthly $100K cocaine habit. Trump is surely an enigma worth investigating. His Wikipedia page provides some facts of his life, while skewing or omitting others. Curiously, his net worth is said to be $3.1B, while he claims over $10B and others maintain that his bankruptcies made him a debt slave to Russian, Jewish, Arab, and/or Italian mobs. Let's ban billionaires. If $999,999,999.99 isn't enough for you, then we don't want you & your U.S. assets will be used to solve society's problems, a reminder of this century-old ragtime classic, "The rich get rich and the poor get poor / In the meantime, in between time / Ain't We Got Fun".
'Dark Journalist' Daniel Liszt shows startling revelations in his livestream YouTube presentations, including that Trump's 'nuclear' uncle, electrical engineer John George Trump, had private access to Nikola Tesla's papers after his death & in 1987 President Nixon sent Trump a letter, urging him to run for president, cuz he would win. Trump keeps it on display. Also, he found a series of X steganography, from Egyptian & Mayan hieroglyphs, Mystery Schools, to planet X, to secret Eisenhower X-program, to fresh JFK assassination info, to LBJ library's 'X' document, to Nixon insider Robert Merritt & White House 'extraterrestrial time capsule', to journalist-author Frank Scully, source of The X-Files character Dana Scully, & much more. Zachary K. Hubbard exposes info about elite-coded news headlines, sports fraud, deaths of celebrity, political, & sports figures, CNN is CIA, & much more, all Kabbalah numerology Gematria based & their divide & conquer ritual methods in his book Letters & Numbers, free to find truth blog, The Gematria Effect weekly radio show, & YouTube channel Gematria Effect News, after his other channels were deleted by Google's YouTube. He & Thom Hartmann are rare sane radio voices amid a sea of rabid, fear & war mongering, far right extremist stochastic terrorists, evolution, globe, or climate change deniers. George Soros, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, & Barack Obama aren't the root of evil. It's the fascist GOP, stupid.
Back in 2018, after unwinding each phi vector taken, Travers was visited by Men in Black who had probing inquiries about his recent whereabouts, activities, & encounters, as well as stern directives & threats not to speak to anyone about them. He now felt that all of his noble intentions & efforts had failed, but unknown to him things were about to get interesting. Amid clouds of corruption uncovered by Robert Mueller's investigation, Trump suddenly resigned along with Mike Pence, the former to serve prison time abroad for tax evasion, the latter to try televangelism. Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House of Representatives was next in line, but declined so President pro tempore of the Senate Orrin Hatch was sworn in as 46th U.S. president. Something quite unprecedented was occurring.
"Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump was born and raised in the New York City borough of Queens, and received an economics degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He took charge of his family's real estate business in 1971, renamed it The Trump Organization, and expanded it from Queens and Brooklyn into Manhattan. The company built or renovated skyscrapers, hotels, casinos, and golf courses. Trump later started various side ventures, including licensing his name for real estate and consumer products. He managed the company until his 2017 inauguration. He co-authored several books, including The Art of the Deal. He owned the Miss Universe and Miss USA beauty pageants from 1996 to 2015, and he produced and hosted the reality television show The Apprentice from 2003 to 2015. Forbes estimates his net worth to be $3.1 billion." -- Wikipedia
Apparently, Time Lord Jefferson took matters into his own hands & carefully set them aright. He had a stenographer secretly record his Monticello meeting. While Travers slept tight in a feather bed, Jefferson borrowed his Cronosoar. With Benjamin Franklin, he devised a solution to Travers' conundrum & spied on the White House to ascertain the situation, using a special Franklin-made drone. A plebiscite outlawed lobbying & dissolved the legislative branch of government along with corporate boards to reform with all new faces, while those ousted faced corruption charges. He made America fair again. We the People got new systems for our Founders' broken model. Several ambitious parties sprang up, including Native Law, Gaia Greens, Latin Power, Black Rights, & Young Turks, replacing the splintered Democrats. Out of a rebranded GOOP, which now stood for Geezer Obsolete Obstructionist Party, a more apt appellation, rose Libertarians, Constitutionalists, & a mega MAGA Mad Hatter's Tea Party. To be an American was honorable once more.
Franklin said or wrote, "Time is money." "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." "Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn." "Well done is better than well said." "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail." "We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid." "Half a truth is often a great lie." "Genius without education is like silver in the mine." "Where liberty is, there is my country." "When you're finished changing, you're finished." "There was never a good war or a bad peace." "Either write something worth reading or do something worth writing." "He that lives upon hope will die fasting." "Some people die at 25 and aren't buried until 75." "Energy and persistence conquer all things." "The Constitution only gives people the right to pursue happiness. You have to catch it yourself." "The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is a knowledge of our own ignorance." "Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn." "The doors of wisdom are never shut." "Life's tragedy is that we get old too soon and wise too late." "There are three things extremely hard: steel, a diamond, and to know one's self." "It is easier to prevent bad habits than it is to break them." "When in doubt, don't." "Never confuse motion with action." "Take time for all things: great haste makes great waste." "If time be of all things the most precious, then wasting time must be the greatest prodigality." "The eye of the master will do more work than both his hands." "He that can have patience can have what he will." "Employ thy time well, if thou meanest to gain leisure." "Lost time is never found again." "One today is worth two tomorrows."
"Benjamin Franklin FRS FRSE was an American polymath and one of the Founding Fathers of the United States. Franklin was a leading author, printer, political theorist, politician, freemason, postmaster, scientist, inventor, humorist, civic activist, statesman, and diplomat. As a scientist, he was a major figure in the American Enlightenment and the history of physics for his discoveries and theories regarding electricity. As an inventor, he is known for the lightning rod, bifocals, and the Franklin stove, among other inventions. He founded many civic organizations, including the Library Company, Philadelphia's first fire department and the University of Pennsylvania." -- Wikipedia
NATO forces on joint military training operations with the IDF sprung a surprise trap netting top Zionist brass & placed the tiny nation under strict martial law, while UN peacekeepers & NGOs moved in to secure nuclear weaponry to prevent their insane Samson Option & conduct mass migrations. Palestinians were freed to inhabit West Bank settlements, while boycott denial non-Semitic militant white Zionists were herded into work camps in Gaza & the West Bank under miserable apartheid conditions they had made, ultimately for themselves. Israel roared empty claims of anti-Semitism at UN headquarters & in their global media Kabbalah cabal, but got no response. "Revenge is a dish best served cold." -- Klingon proverb (from Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan) Similar roundups by the FBI in the U.S. netted KKK, CIA, NSA, neo-Nazis, Saudi royals, white nationalists, racist skinheads, Dark Money fat cats, & Proud Boys, who soon found themselves in Gaza, where ex-President Trump was torn apart by some who felt betrayed by him in a vicious civil war between far right militant Zionists & farther right militant Zionists. A great weight was lifted off humanity's back, the International Red Cross finally released its meticulous WWII camp statistics, & seemingly miraculous drops occurred in nosy spies, Spam emails, & most surprisingly 99% of the Pentagon budget, followed by reciprocal defense moves worldwide. The elite's 3,000-year-old Abrahamic religions experiment was banned as dangerously counter-productive. Our planet entered the Aquarian Age, brimming with green energy opportunity, exploration of the Cosmos, resources on other worlds, & extraterrestrial communication.
"The Samson Option is the name that some military analysts and authors have given to Israel's deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a "last resort" against the specific country whose military destroys Israel. Commentators also have employed the term to refer to situations where non-nuclear, non-Israeli actors, have threatened conventional weapons retaliation." -- Wikipedia
Silly coincidence theories of 19 'Muslim hijacker' clowns led by a CIA clone in a cave, 'magic bullet', 'lone assassin', Nazi Reichstag fire, 'surprise attacks' of Havana Harbor, Lusitania, Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin, & 9/11, didn't stand the test of time. Travers laughed when he read that Ari Quotient, Max Ernst, & Elbert Dreistein were in line for the quadrennial 2022 Fields Medal, so-called 'Nobel Prize' in mathematics, for their elaborate so-called proof that time travel is impossible.
Chillin' later at the beach with network maven yogi bud CEJ, while simultaneously wondering whether eigenvector matrices were quasicrystalline spin networks, they saw Garrett Lisi parasailing & approached the easy-going theorist-adventurer. After Tim's talk with Newton, he tried once more to grok gravity by asking Lisi for insight, who said, "All fields of the standard model and gravity are unified as an E8 principal bundle connection. A non-compact real form of the E8 Lie algebra has G2 and F4 subalgebras which break down to strong su(3), electroweak su(2) x u(1), gravitational so(3,1), the frame-Higgs, and three generations of fermions related by triality. The interactions and dynamics of these 1-form and Grassmann valued parts of an E8 superconnection are described by the curvature and action over a four dimensional base manifold." "The mathematics of quantum mechanics very accurately describes how our universe operates." "I think the universe is pure geometry - basically, a beautiful shape twisting around nd dancing over space-time." "I always found it satisfying that gravity was described by Einstein's geometric theory of general relativity." "There are a lot of good things about string theory, and it's great that some people want to work on it." "I'm afraid the workings of J.J. Abrams' mind fall outside the predictive capacity of any coherent theory." "Surfing is simply the most fun I know how to have on this planet." "Ninety-five per cent of my time is virtually wasted." "You cannot think when you're ecstatic." "Science is our last and greatest frontier." "The only thing that makes sense is if the universe is beautiful and simple and elegant."
"Antony Garrett Lisi, known as Garrett Lisi, is an American theoretical physicist and adventure sports enthusiast. Lisi works as an independent researcher without an academic position. He is a strong proponent of balance in life, in his case between scientific research and enjoyment of the outdoors." -- Wikipedia
"In quantum mechanics, the Planck time (tP) is the unit of time in the system of natural units known as Planck units. A Planck unit is the time required for light to travel in a vacuum a distance of 1 Planck length, which is approximately 5.39 × 10 −44 s. The unit is named after Max Planck, who was the first to propose it." -- Wikipedia
"An attosecond is...one quintillionth of a second. For context, an attosecond is to a second what a second is to about 31.71 billion years." -- Wikipedia
"The Wheeler–DeWitt equation is...part of a theory that attempts to combine mathematically the ideas of quantum mechanics and general relativity, a step towards a theory of quantum gravity...time plays a role different from what it does in non-relativistic quantum mechanics, leading to the so-called 'problem of time'. -- Wikipedia
Hugh Everett III, colleague of John Wheeler & Bryce DeWitt, wrote Universal Wave Function Theory that proposed a many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics.
"Just for scale, one unit of Planck time is less than a trillionth of a trillionth of the attosecond described above!...for things that happen below the Planck scale, time disappears." -- Gregg Braden, Fractal Time, page 102, doing his best impression of Paul Charles William Davies
"Einstein’s 1905 paper came out and suddenly changed people’s thinking about space-time. We’re again in the middle of something like that. When the dust settles, time—whatever it may be—could turn out to be even stranger and more illusory than even Einstein could imagine." -- Carlo Rovelli
"We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive." -- Albert Einstein
"Terence McKenna...Timewave Zero...fractal modeling of time" -- Wikipedia
Today Travers' weltanschauung took a serious hit when he was informed that Wikipedia, which he had contributed occasional editing, was another tool of the ruling elite. There was no doubt Tim needed some math tutoring, but now he had all the time in the world. CEJ, born in the year of the Wheeler–DeWitt equation, took Tim's Cronosoar for a proper shakedown cruise so both of them might study Lisi's ideas without sacrificing vacation time. They crossed paths once with John Titor, towing him out of a 'temporal causality loop', like that experienced by USS Enterprise NCC-1701-D crew & USS Bozeman under Captain Morgan Bateson (Kelsey Grammer) in "Cause and Effect" season 5 episode 18 of Star Trek: The Next Generation. In appreciation, he shared some 2036 trove coordinates & his ""stationary mass, temporal displacement unit powered by two top-spin, dual positive singularities", producing a "standard off-set Tipler sinusoid"...Two magnetic housing units for the dual micro singularities... An electron injection manifold to alter mass and gravity of the micro singularities...A cooling and X-ray venting system...Gravity sensors, or a variable gravity lock...Four main cesium clocks...Three main computer units" -- Wikipedia However, they steered clear of Doc Brown's device & the McFly family, due to many time anomalies they were well-known for. Besides, that flux capacitor DeLorean was a fire hazard.
"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising each time we fall." -- Confucius
"Observe good faith and justice with all nations. Cultivate peace and harmony with all." -- George Washington
"We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let's face it, is mostly the history of stupidity." -- Stephen Hawking
"One of the lessons of history is that nothing is often a good thing to do and always a clever thing to say." -- Will Durant
"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history." -- Aldous Huxley
"The value of history is, indeed, not scientific but moral: by liberalizing the mind, by deepening the sympathies, by fortifying the will, it enables us to control, not society, but ourselves -- a much more important thing; it prepares us to live more humanely in the present and to meet rather than to foretell the future." -- Carl Becker
"History is a cyclic poem written by time upon the memories of man." -- Percy Bysshe Shelley
"History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce." -- Karl Marx
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." -- Mark Twain
"History proves that the white man is a devil." -- Malcolm X Little
Travers' work playlist was predictable: Time Warp from Rocky Horror Picture Show, Time Has Come Today by the Chambers Brothers, Back in Time by Huey Lewis & the News, Time by Pink Floyd, Time in a Bottle by Jim Croce, Time After Time by Cyndi Lauper, Does Anybody Know What Time It Is by Chicago, Times Like These by the Foo Fighters, Feels Like the First Time by Foreigner, Clocks by Coldplay, Rock Around the Clock by Bill Haley & the Comets, Time Is on My Side by the Rolling Stones, Love Me Two Times by the Doors, Old Time Rock & Roll by Bob Seger & the Silver Bullet Band, The Longest Time by Billy Joel, Good Times Roll by the Cars, Too Much Time on My Hands by Styx, Big Time by Peter Gabriel, Where Have All the Good Times Gone by the Kinks, Time for Me to Fly by REO Speedwagon, If I Could Turn Back Time by Cher, Wasted Time by the Eagles, Your Time Is Gonna Come by Led Zeppelin, Foreplay / Long Time by Boston, The Last Time by the Rolling Stones, Time to Move On by Tom Petty, Time Waits for No One by the Rolling Stones, Out of Time by the Rolling Stones, Three Times a Lady by the Commodores, Time by the Alan Parsons Project, Every time You Go Away by Paul Young, Ain't Wastin' Time No More by the Allman Brothers, Tulsa Time by Eric Clapton, Sign o' the Times by Prince, By the Time I Get to Phoenix by Glen Campbell, Long Time Gone by Crosby, Stills, Nash, & Young, How Many More Times by Led Zeppelin, Nothin' But a Good Time by Poison, Knock Three Times by Tony Orlando & Dawn, Time (Clock of the Heart) by Culture Club, The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face by Roberta Flack, This Time by Bryan Adams, Time Stand Still by Rush, Anytime at All by the Beatles, Killin' Time by Clint Black, No Time This Time by the Police, Party All the Time by Eddie Murphy, Remember the Time by Michael Jackson, Isn't It Time by the Babys, Bad Time by Grand Funk Railroad, Child in Time by Deep Purple, Only Time Will Tell by Asia, Time Is Running Out by Muse, This Time Tomorrow by the Kinks, Man Out of Time by Elvis Costello, King of the Night Time World by Kiss, Sour Times by Portishead, Comes a Time by Neil Young, Do That to Me One More Time by Captain & Tennille, Another Place Another Time by Jerry Lee Lewis, Where Have All the Good Times Gone by Elton John, Sea of Time by George Martin Orchestra, Get It Right the First Time by Billy Joel, I've Had the Time of My Life by Jennifer Warnes, The Times They Are A-Changin' by Bob Dylan, No Time by Guess Who, Time Won't Let Me by the Outsiders, Time of the Season by the Zombies, Time Machine by Grand Funk Railroad, Give Me Just a Little More Time by Chairmen of the Board, Time to Fly by Spirit, & Kashmir by Led Zeppelin.
submitted by anti-ZOG-sci-fry to u/anti-ZOG-sci-fry [link] [comments]

Why they will never change Rates or Quality of Legendary Drops!

I really have to give blizz credit for game design. The game is basically slots at a casino and that’s why its so addicting. At its core it uses an RNG system for reward overlaid with different psychological tricks in order to keep you hooked. Now some argue weighted RNG is not RNG but in this case it really is. It’s just that certain numbers lead to actual payoffs while others don’t, the generation is still random so the concept of RNG does apply.
Now to progress this analogy of slots even further let me simply just explain how they work at their core. Lets say in this theoretically example of slots you have 4 wheels and 8 options for each wheel with equal probability (RNG) for each value. Lets say there is only 1 way you win the jackpot and that’s if all 4 wheel line up with 1s. The probability of you winning would be (1/8)4 which is .000244 which means on average with a big enough sample size you would need 4098 spins to win.
Diablo 3 sort of works the same way. Let’s say whenever you kill a monster you roll a thousand side die with only 1 out of 1000 being a leg drop. That means you must on average roll 1000 times for 1 Leg. Let’s say only 1/500 of these legs are worthwhile, that means in order for you to get a good leg you are rolling a 500,000 die with only 1 payoff and must on average roll 500,000 times in order to get this pay off.
Now here’s where the masses complain. Why don’t they make legs better? Why don’t they raise drop rates? Well to put simply the payoff is done in a way to keep the average player playing for a certain length of time. If they took out all the crappy legs and only kept the good ones at the current rate most players would not reach the 500,000 rolls needed and player base would drop off. If they raised rates so you needed only 500 rolls instead of 500,000 people would gear too fast and run out of content and quit playing(Me). The crap legs in this game are just like the almost wins in slots. That beam of light gives u hope, it’s what keep you rolling just a couple more times each night. Even though it takes you 500,000 times to actually “win” during the process you had 500 moments of hope. This hope is what helps retain you to roll close to the 500,000 average number of rolls to finish your build and effectively run the game out of content. This is the same reason why people keep pulling the lever in slots. Its those 1 1 1 2 and 1 3 1 1 close calls that give you hope. Blizz has the formula perfect and that’s why they will never change the rates or the quality of items.
For the people not getting geared, YOU ARE SPENDING too much time per roll. Check out http://i.imgur.com/OatsoiU.png. I currently run t3 rifts with 150 mf at 7 min average. I do 8 rifts an hour and if x is my droprate I do 17x an hour. Over 3 hours a day I would get 51x. Now most non effective farmers(complainers) do t3 25 min runs with no mf which equates to 4.32x an hour over 3hrs that's a farm rate of 12.96x. In just 1 day even though we both played 3hrs my 3 hrs would equal to your 12 hours. One week of my play equal almost a month of play for you. I'm doing ~4x the number of rolls you are!
Also there is an a path of effective progression in this game. You must start with cache bag farming which in a reasonable amount of time will gear u you up enough for t1 under 10 mins. Then under 10 min t2s... etc etc. Most people get stuck here. They do ineffective bag farming they do ineffective rift farming, ... they do ineffective progression of the game! From my experience and observation it only takes about ~100 hrs of play for any effective player to run out of content. But I know players who've played almost 500 since release and are barely geared due to their ineffectiveness.
There are so many other little psychology tricks blizz has employed with systems like the safety net as well as how they release content. I can't help to admire how they can get 20-30 year old young people to dump hours into this game and feel so passionate about it; all I can say is they know people.
tl;dr D3 drops mimic slots and thats why you keep playing
submitted by ISE7 to Diablo [link] [comments]

casino theoretical win equation video

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This guide, written by casino math professor Robert Hannum, contains a brief, non-technical discussion of the basic mathematics governing casino games and shows how casinos make money from these games.The article addresses a variety of topics, including house advantage, confusion about win rates, game volatility, player value and comp policies, casino pricing mistakes, and regulatory issues. As someone that used to work in database marketing for casinos, I get asked all the time about how casinos determine what specific offers and comps to give to different players. While there are some tier-based offers (Diamond Aspiration trips are a good example), most casino offers are based on a player's Average Daily Value (also referred to as Average Daily Theoretical or ADT). Casino and hospitality marketing 1. Casino MarketingExcerpts from Chapter Three 2. Predictive Analytics for the Gaming Industry“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionallylook at the results.” ~Winston Churchill 3. The theoretical win for players who play Casino War is (0.0290) × (total amount wagered). The theoretical win from players who place a wager on the pass line in craps is (0.0141) × (total amount wagered). Casino Theoretical Win Equation, can't lose craps system, orient express casino no deposit code, red rock casino pool cabanas price Gambling online for real money is highly popular and great fun because you can play at any time of the day or night, on your pc, Casino Theoretical Win Equation tablet or mobile. There are always hundreds of slots and many other games available and you don't even need to change out of your pajamas to enjoy them. "ADT is accumulated daily theoretical win, and is the current sum of the coin in hold for all of the gaming sessions that have thus far occurred during the casino day. The casino day can be arbitrarily set, but is preferably from 6:00 am to 6:00 am, or as defined by a particular casino property. Casino Mathematics 1. Casino Mathematics Or why they keep building casinos 2. The Odds Are Stacked The first principle of casino gaming is “the house shall always win” The house stacks the odds in its favor The casino counts on the fact that, in the long run, players will lose more money than they make. The Theoretical Win (TW) is the profit the casino makes off of each guest to their casino. It's called a "win" since it's from the casino's perspective and not the player's. It's "theoretical" because a lot of factors or inputs influence the calculate of the win and therefore it can fluxuate, sometimes wildly. Common casino measurements such as drop, handle, win, hold, and theoretical win are explained and illustrated for each of the major games. No formal background in mathematics is necessary, although comfort with the notion of percentages and quantitative reasoning is helpful. The primary intended audience is casino managers,

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Complex Exponential function using Casio-991ES - YouTube

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casino theoretical win equation

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