Hey everybody, this is the first of a weekly segment I'd like to start covering this year's Spring college football season. If you're interested in helping coordinate this, please contact me at [email protected], or if you have any updates or changes to my list, please give me an update via this Google form. This post will be a bit longer than the future ones will be while I introduce things, so bear with me a bit. If there's one silver lining to Covid-19, it's that we get more college football. Just over two-and-a-half-weeks after the close of the 2020 Fall Football season, the colleges and conferences who elected to defer their season to the Spring of 2021 are kicking off their games, with DIII's American Southwest Conference (ASC), Southern Athletic Association (SAA), and Northwest Conference (NWC) planning to play a total of eight games. I recently finished going through the posted schedule of every single NCAA football team and creating a document which organizes those schedules into a single source and organized two different ways: You can see the entire schedule broken up day by day or you can look at the schedule of each individual program playing an NCAA team. I could have also looked through the NAIA and NCFA, but the NCAA schedules proved volatile enough that I decided not to in the end. I think the format of the sheet is fairly self-explanatory, but just in case it's not, here's a basic guide:
For games played by Independents (regardless of level), the "conference" box is colored yellow; additionally, the team who is independent has "(IND)" next to their name. Note that Barton College, who has a scheduling alliance with the SAC for the season, is still counted as an independent
Inter-conference games are colored orange in the "conference" column.
Inter-division games are denoted with an asterisk (*) in the "Division" column
There are a few schedules with "TBA" games listed. Those have red colored words in the team name row and have their "conference" box colored red.
A few games are listed as "scrimmage games" or "neutral site games" -- see the "comments" column for those games.
Any time there was a scheduling conflict, or any time only one of the two competing schools had a schedule posted, the row was colored pink and an explanation was put in the "comments" box. If the row is colored pink but the box is empty that means it conflicts with another scheduled game and an explanation is elsewhere, generally close by.
The sheet also has a few other useful tabs: first is a list of teams who played last Fall who are also planning on playing this Spring, or at the least have not officially ruled out playing this Spring. Colleges who played (or attempted to play) in the Fall are listed alphabetically, along with a simple display of their schedule. If it's not currently clear whether the team plans to play or not, their name is highlighted yellow and there's a note indicating as much beside them. There are currently 28 teams who played in the fall and either plan to play this spring or have not formally ruled out playing in the Spring. Most of them played 3-or-fewer games against either Fall opt-ins who needed to round out their schedule, or schools who attempted to start competition in the Fall before postponing to the Spring. The fourth tab is a list of teams who are confirmed to not be playing this Spring. This list does not include teams who obviously played a full Fall slate of games unless the team played independently of their conference whose other members are playing this Spring. I tried to be pretty conservative with inclusions on this list. The fifth tab is a list of schools who are officially unannounced on the topic of whether they will play this Spring or not. Many of them may be assumed to be not playing, however several conferences have put out statements to the effect that they are still evaluating current options and that a Spring schedule is not out of the question. Finally, the sixth tab is a sortable "standings" list of each school who has played so far. It's nothing super fancy and only includes cumulative records, but is a good visual aid.
Notes of Interest
While none of the teams are playing yet, look forward to next week when we get our first Division I level games. New Mexico State is the only D-I FBS team playing this Spring; several FCS teams are also playing. Though all members of the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (GLIAC, D-II) are allowed to independently schedule games, currently the only member who has chosen to publicly do so is Saginaw Valley State, who plans to play one game on March 6th. Despite most conferences being conference only and home/away only, there are a few neutral site games, most of which will be played by HBCUs. The first will be Grambling State vs Prairie View A&M on February 27th in the Cotton Bowl, and the second between Mt. Union and Muskingum on March 12th (I believe the schedules both count this as a home game for Muskingum but I chose not to since it's played in Zanesville and not a town either team is based in). The third game will be Savannah State vs West Alabama in Mobile, AL, and the fourth in Shreveport's Independence Stadium will be played by Grambling State and Southern on April 17th. The final scheduled neutral site game of the season will be the Magic City Classic between Alabama A&M and Alabama State. Scheduled to also be played on the 17th, this game will be played in Birmingham's Legion Field (home of the former Birmingham Iron -- Forge On!). There are a few games which are tentatively scheduled, but probably the most interesting is the 4/17 matchup between Erskine and Limestone, which will only be played if Limestone fails to make the South Atlantic Conference (SAC) championship.
Week 1 in Spring CFB
Here, I'll give a quick introduction to the currently-planned slate of games for each coming week. A week runs from Thursday to Wednesday, much like the NFL, so this week starts today (2/4) and ends 2/10; this isn't really an issue this week but will be in later weeks. Later I'll try to make a table of the previous week's games, but since this is the first week we don't have any of those yet. I'll also try to include (legal) links to where you can stream the games online, if the team offers such a service. Times are not guaranteed to be accurate; as a general rule they should follow the time-zone of the home state, but I didn't always check. Also, sometimes, two schedules would list two different times for the same game. I'd generally just stick with whichever one I saw first. Week 1
For a while I wrestled over whether I wanted to include the records of teams who competed in the Fall in this section. What I think I've decided to do is present them here by record and include their Spring and Overall record later on but rate teams by Spring record only, but I'll still present the overall record just for edification. This won't ever be anything super scientific, just a look at each team's winning percentage ordered by whoever's played the most games to help remove the noise of a new week of conference play as each conference starts up. For this pre-season ranking, I'll only be looking at teams who are currently confirmed to be playing this Spring. 1. Trine (IN) (2-0) - 1
The only competing team with multiple wins and no losses in the Fall, Trine leads the pack for the pre-Spring season after wins over Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association (MIAA) foe Adrian (44-27) and a shutout against Manchester University (37-0). They look to return with a conference-only slate.
2. Bluffton (1-0) - 1
Bluffton beat Arian College (MI) in a close 28-21 game on October 24th; they had a second game scheduled against Trine which they were forced to cancel due to new travel restrictions in Ohio.
3. North Dakota State (1-0) - 1
The Bison won their sole scheduled game of the Fall 2020 season against Central Arkansas 39-28, defeating the vagrant A-SUN team in a game played primarily to get highly-touted QB Trey Lance some publicity before the NFL draft.
4. Southern Illinois (1-0) - 1
Southern Illinois defeated Southeast Missouri 20-17 in the only game either team played this Fall.
5. Jacksonville State (3-1) - 0.75
Though technically the team on this list with the most wins, Jacksonville State is held back by their loss to Florida State (24-41). Otherwise, the Gamecocks made a strong showing this Fall, taking down Mercer (34-28), North Alabama (24-17), and Florida International (19-10).
T-6. UT Chattanooga & Southeast Missouri (0-1) - 0
Both Chattanooga and Southeast Missouri lost their only games of the Fall season by narrow margins, with the Mocs losing 10-13 to Western Kentucky and the Redhawks losing 17-20 to Southern Illinois.
8. Manchester (IN) (0-2) - 0
Manchester lost both the games they played this Fall, getting blown out by both Trine (0-37) and Adrian (10-41).
T-9. Mercer, Missouri State, & Western Carolina (0-3) - 0
Mercer's three losses are mostly fairly respectable, falling to Jacksonville State (28-34) and Abilene Christian (17-20) by close scores, however, the Bears' third loss to Army (3-49) is a little harder to stomach. Missouri State had a similar fate, falling to Oklahoma (0-48) but doing respectably against Central Arkansas (20-27 and 24-33). Western Carolina, on the other hand, played tough games against the strong Flames of Liberty (14-58) and Tar Heels of North Carolina (9-49). Their loss to Eastern Kentucky (17-49) was a bit more humbling.
12. The Citadel (0-4) - 0
The Citadel's closest game was a 9-14 loss to Army, and from there things got worse for the Bulldogs quickly. 20+ point losses to South Florida (6-27) and Eastern Kentucky (14-37) sandwiched a 0-49 shutout at the hands of Clemson.
13. University of the Incarnate Word (0-0)
The Cardinals attempted to play Arkansas State this Fall but had the game canceled due to Covid. It feels unfair to rank them 13th for not playing a game, but it would feel more wrong to rank them ahead of teams who actually played.
Closing
I hope y'all enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed putting it together. Like I mentioned in the introduction, any and all help is appreciated! Looking forward to hearing what everyone thinks or is looking forward to for this Spring's football season!
Feb/3/2021: (1) Mediaport Telegram channel: fabrications & rumors, activists behind it (2) Bill: identify "unknown" outlet owners before "linking" by mass media. Media financial transparency. (3) Parliament: judicial reform, protests, social aid (4) Robik (5) Artsakh recognized (6) Subsidies (7
Your 16-minute Wednesday report in 3984 words.
Mediaport Telegram channel
For context, read DFRLab's investigation into pro-Serj/Kocharyan media figures behind media outlets that spread misinformation and deceptive "fact checks". Part 1. Part 2. Or read the summary here. Reported by FIP, edited by me to add extra info: Mediaport Telegram channel was created just two days after the ending of the war and often spreads sensationalized and shocking information. It's heavily cited by some opposition outlets. The owners are unknown. We tried to find out who runs the channel. It has a record of publishing info about events that were set to happen within a few hours (about officials submitting letters of resignation). That means they have some connection in the system. The outlet, however, mostly spreads fake news, out of context, manipulation, or gossip-level stuff. November 11: the outlet claimed that all entrances to Yerevan were closed and that people were marching to Yerevan on foot. In reality, roadblocks were installed to check vehicles entering Yerevan to ensure they don't have weapons. The road wasn't "closed" and there was no "marching". November 16: the outlet wrote that Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan decided not to return from his trip to Russia and had to hide in Moscow because the Armenian community in Moscow was after him for revenge. Meanwhile, Alen Simonyan had returned to Armenia several days before the publication, and as of writing it, he was presiding over a meeting between Pashinyan and MPs. November 20: the outlet wrote that Artsakh church leader Pargev Srbazan had passed away. The churchman appeared in public days later. (the second coming of Pargev?) December 24: the outlet claimed that Azeris entered Armenian village Vorotan in Syunik province and used equipment to take down a sign. In reality, the incident took place in a similarly named settlement in Artsakh's Qashatagh province, which went under Azeri control during the war. The original source mentioned that it was in Qashatagh, but Mediaport changed it to Syunik. There were numerous other false reports during this period. For example, the report about Deputy PM Mher Grigoryan's resignation on December 12, the report about NSS searching churchman Zeynalyan's apartment after he refused to greet Pashinyan in a church. January 17: outlet wrote that the Aliyev family transferred their Dubai mansion to Pashinyan's wife Anna Hakobyan. The "proof" was an image of a regular gas bill, unrelated to Hakobyan. The outlet often circulates conspiracy theories, yellow press material, and gossip that is impossible to verify. For example, it claimed there was a sharp argument between MOD Davit Tonoyan and Artsakh Army chief Jalal Harutyunyan just before Jalal's wounding. (Context: there was a conspiracy theory that Jalal was targeted in an assassination attempt by an insider). who is behind Mediaport? The study of the channel and comparison with other sources gives serious grounds to believe that it has a direct connection with the extremist "VETO" movement, as well as its co-founder Narek Malyan, who is the former aide to Serj Sargsyan's police chief Vladimir Gasparyan (under felony investigation). On December 10th, Mediaport published a report showing the detention of VETO Narek Malyan and HHK MP Arman Saghatelyan in Republic Square. Saghatelyan is the co-founder of Qaryak Media, which runs several well-known media outlets in Armenia. Mediaport shared a segment from the detention incident. Then, VETO's channel shared the full footage. From the video, it is visible that the Mediaport's footage was being filmed by another VETO member. Another VETO member published a video and image showing the person who filmed the video that was shared by Mediaport. It confirmed the aforementioned. Mediaport published the video at 18:03 Dec-10, while VETO published it 8 hours later. In another instance, Mediaport was actively covering the December 8th protest in front of the NSS building. Examination of another footage by VETO members reveals that yet another VETO member was filming Mediaport's footage. On December 3rd, Mediaport mentioned a list called "Farkhoyan List". You may not know what it is unless you follow VETO's co-founder Narek Malyan or his friend HHK Deputy Justice Minister Ruben Melikyan. The former regime is creating a list of judges they believe are following Pashinyan's orders. VETO referred to it as "Farkhoyan's List" (named after a judge on the list). VETO's Narek Malyan began to mention the list more actively later. It was promptly shared by Mediaport. The similarities don't end there. More recently, Mediaport has been parroting Malyan's talking points after the latter stopped posting them on Facebook (signed-in from the wrong account?). The connection between Mediaport and VETO is established by other data. When the opposition 17 parties held a scattered protest across the city, Mediaport was filming specifically in areas where VETO's Narek Malyan was. A road-blocking event took place on November 20th. Malyan and others were detained. There were no media outlets to film on the scene - just Mediaport and VETO's reporters who covered the incident. An event took place outside the home of MP Hamazasp on November 28th. No other media outlet was present; Mediaport and Malyan shared the same footage. It was uploaded on Mediaport at 18:26, and just 2 minutes later on Malyan's account. Sometimes the difference between shares on Mediaport and VETO is measured in seconds. (Narek Malyan is illuminati confirmed.) Generally, VETO and Mediaport discuss the same topic on social media almost at the same time. While Malyan initially tried not to mention Mediaport, it eventually got a shout out from his main account, where he wrote, "The most operative and reliable information at the moment is on this telegram channel." Mediaport's connection with other media outlets The media outlets owned by "Qaryak Media", founded by HHK officials and allies, were quick to share info from this brand new "anonymous" Telegram outlet. ArmNews outlet cited it just 2 days after its creation. Tert.am, Aysor.am, Blognews.am and others followed suit. ArmNews and Tert.am are owned by "Qaryak Media". The latter was founded in 2019 by four ex-HHK MPs: Arman Saghatelyan, Samvel Farmanyan (sister charged with university embezzlement), Karen Bekaryan, and Mihran Hakobyan. Before becoming part of Qayrak Media, the ArmNews and Tert.am were part of Serj's fugitive son-in-law Mikael Mishik Minasyan's "Panarmenian" media empire. Qaryak Media co-founders have close ties to VETO's Narek Malyan and often visit protests together. other media connections Other sources that often cite Mediaport are misinformation-spreading outlets "Analitik" and "Antifake". Analitik - run by a VETO member Ani Hovhannisyan, who was earlier found guilty of extorting money from a Parliament MP in exchange for not publishing defamatory material. She has close ties with fellow VETO membefounder Narek Malyan. Antifake - run by "Civic Consciousness" NGO chief Narek Samsonyan, a close associate of Narek Malyan. Together, they hold routine protests in front of George Soros's office to make sure the rainbow does not turn your child into gay. https://fip.am/14645 https://massispost.com/2019/05/atlantic-council-deceptive-fact-checking-groups-spread-fake-news-against-armenian-government-online/ https://medium.com/dfrlab/armenia-assailed-by-deceptive-fact-checking-groups-part-i-the-players-2ce03daf2d28 https://a1plus.am/en/article/169448 Tags: #ArmyOfFakes #Mediaport #VETO #FakeNews #SutNikol #NarekMalyan #ArmNews #QaryakMedia #Mishik #Panarmenian #ArmNews #Tert.am
bill could require owners of "unknown" outlets identified before being "linked" by mass media
6 MPs from the ruling QP party, 4 of whom are former journalists, drafted a bill to amend the law that regulates the "Mass Media". The co-author said, "it will help to distinguish honest journalists and media organizations from unknown sources that cannot be identified." "There are organizations involved in journalism who are known to the public; they have editorial teams. Along come Telegram channels and Facebook pages that generate information without any kind of work, and appear in real media. The real outlets essentially advertise sources with unknown origins." "This bill targets the 'unknown sources' whose owners are being kept secret. The mass media outlets won't be allowed to link to such unknown outlets. However, they won't be forbidden from reproducing the information of those sources." (If I understood correctly, a regular media outlet can still circulate an unknown Telegram rumor but won't be able to link to such channels in order not to "advertise" or use them as a scapegoat, unless owners behind the channel are known.) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042271.html , https://factor.am/334964.html A journalist criticized the bill co-author, stating that it does not actually prohibit media outlets from spreading the fake news. The co-author responded, "It's hard to fight against fake news nowadays. But I think the main fight against fake news should be done by you, the media outlets, by not circulating them." https://youtu.be/g50iynYc-nE?t=912 Head of Yerevan Media Club says if the circulated information is false and defamatory and is subject to punishment, it does not matter in what fashion the outlet shares the information; by linking to unknown or known. He opposes the bill. https://youtu.be/W-3rV3RhcAA?t=264 Opposition LHK MP Ani Samsonyan supports the idea but sees a "political context" here because "the ruling party only cared about the issue after it affected them." She supports fighting against pro and anti-government misinformation channels, saying that similar unknown sources had been used against the opposition. https://youtu.be/W-3rV3RhcAA?t=165 The Head of the Freedom of Expression Commission said although the bill has some positive aspects (they found instances of unknown sources being fake and intentional manipulations, and media outlets serving interests of their owners), "it's still too restrictive and needs to be removed from circulation." https://factor.am/335026.html The co-author reiterated that media outlets won't be prohibited from spreading rumors by using the "according to our anonymous sources" tactic. "Quite the contrary. When the outlet uses the term 'according to our sources', it becomes the conveyor and the entity responsible for spreading that information. The bill is only about instances when the information is linked to unknown/unregistered sources which are commonly used as a tool to escape responsibility." "Let's say an anonymous Telegram channel circulates defamation. A media outlet takes and publishes it while referring to that channel. The victim files a defamation lawsuit against the media outlet. The media outlet claims they took the info from Telegram, 'go find out whose Telegram it is', but that's impossible because the Telegram sources are unknown. Defamation and insult are decriminalized in our country, you can not turn to law enforcement. You can turn to them only when there is a threat of violence." "Although we consulted with relevant entities while drafting the bill, we are ready to discuss with media outlets and hear their concerns. We're ready to make amendments." https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/205790 Another part of the proposed bill would require media outlets to make their finances transparent. Every year, they would be required to publish a financial declaration and reveal the sources of their revenues, and their top-5 largest ad partners. https://youtu.be/W-3rV3RhcAA?t=278 (In order to pass, the proposed bill would need Parliamentary committee approval, govt approval, Parliamentary floor debate, a vote, a second vote. It hasn't passed through any right now.) Tags: #MassMedia #MediaLaw #TelegramLaw #FakeNews
Investigative Committee looking into death threats on Facebook
An anti-Pashinyan Facebook activist called for the ARF party to assassinate the "traitor" Prime Minister, again. The investigators were asked to punish the incitement of violence. They are looking into it. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042222.html
Parliament session: judicial reforms: more judges / social affairs & aid / opposition protests
the protest The former regime organized protests in front of the Parliament building, ahead of today's session. HHK's youth wing leader believes there are other important things to do today than to discuss the judicial reform. The protesters demand "traitor" PM Pashinyan's resignation. They shut down the nearby Baghramyan Ave before being told by police to move to sidewalks. 8 people were detained. The protesters decided to march to Republic Square. judicial reforms: more judges to reduce waiting times Justice Minister Badasyan presented the bill. It's about expanding the number of judges handling felony trials. They will be specialized in handling pre-trial cases. The Armenian court system has long been overloaded with each judge being assigned [too many] cases. 17 new judges will be hired. LHK and BHK complained that the bill isn't urgent and shouldn't be discussed now, and that nowadays security related topics should be discussed. Minister responded saying they've been discussing the issue of judicial system overload in the past 1.5 years, and "after accusing the government of inaction, you're now against it?" Opposition MP accused the government of trying to hire "favorable" judges. The Minister denied the claim and listed the steps that are taken before the judge can be hired: written exam, a monthlong examination of property declaration, ethics vetting (reformed), Corruption Prevention Committee opinion (new), psychological test, Supreme Court approves/rejects the candidate, undergoes training in Judicial Academy, gives an exam, gets a chance to become a judge. Parliament voted 83-24 to approve the judicial reform. This was the second and final vote. The opposition voted against it. opposition opposes Opposition BHK MP complained that they could be discussing issues relating to Syunik's border village Shurnukh instead of the aforementioned reforms. Ruling QP leader Makunts responded saying, "BHK has already discussed and voted in regards to Shurnukh borders." (she is referring to a 2010 bill approved by BHK/HHK that drew the Syunik borders and left part of Shurnukh village on the internationally-recognized Azeri side. The govt says it relies on that 2010 bill to clarify Syunik boundaries today.)* social affairs - 100,000 refugees have returned Labor and Social Affairs Minister took to the floor and presented the programs the Armenian and Artsakh governments have so far implemented for Artsakh refugees. "Social problems were resolved. This is why after the war the population of Artsakh went from a few hundred to over 100,000 today. People are returning to their homes." "Those who had permanent residency are already back. Another 5,000 who lost their homes due to occupation continue to live in Artsakh. Another 20,000 who lost homes due to occupation are currently in Armenia; none were left without temporary housing. Gas, electricity, connection (partially) have been restored in Artsakh. One of the telecom operators secured a connection without roaming." "The government provided ֏15B in social aid to Artsakh residents. That's more than any monthly social service operating in Armenia." "Additionally, we're working in Artsakh government to fully subsidize income taxes for 6 months. There is practically no income tax in Artsakh in 1H21. We have several other programs with the govt." "Post-war, Artsakh's own revenues fell by ֏50B. It will be fully compensated by a financing package from the Republic of Armenia. Financial allocations were granted in order to allow Artsakh to pay pensions and public sector salaries. Armenia continues to be the guarantor of the social security of the Artsakh Republic." Bentleys and flights Another debate ensued between opposition BHK and ruling QP MPs. The former accused the latter of contributing to the emigration. The ruling MP cited numbers, saying "372,000 people fled Armenia while BHK was part of the government coalition. Meanwhile, 41,000 people returned since the 2018 revolution." BHK MP responded saying, at least they didn't lose a war. QP MP responded saying, "People who held power for 30 years are accusing us of not doing enough in 2 years. Yes, we didn't have time to convert certain people's Bentleys and mansions into drones. Don't worry, we will." us vs them LHK MP compared the work done by Azerbaijan in occupied territories (he cited a road in Talish and the plans to build an airport in Fizuli), and accused the Labor Ministry of lagging behind in projects and housing construction. Minister responded saying, "I'm disappointed with the comparison. Are you aware that Azerbaijan, to this date, has not been able to install an electric network and deliver electricity to Shushi? Soldiers and a few civilians are sitting in darkness. Meanwhile, we have rebuilt Artsakh's electric grid after the war; it was completely destroyed, ArtsakhEnergo was destroyed. Up to 1,000 houses are being rebuilt in Artsakh as we speak, which will be given for permanent residency. In the second stage, we will rebuilt several apartment complexes." unified social services office The government prepared a bill to reduce the number of social aid officers the citizen has to visit to get something done. 4 services could operate under one "window" to cut beurocracy. Parliament voted 99-8 to approve it. This was the second and final vote. It will become law. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042256.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042221.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042223.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042230.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042232.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042236.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042245.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042246.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042292.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042295.html , https://factor.am/334746.html , https://factor.am/334754.html , https://factor.am/334754.html , https://factor.am/334758.html , https://factor.am/334770.html , https://factor.am/334912.html Tags: #JudicialReforms #JudicialOverload
empire to strike back? / former officials hold a meeting
The leaders of the former regime and their allies met to discuss plans. They agreed that Vazgen Manukyan will remain their candidate. The meeting was between Kocharyan, Serj, Tsarukyan, ARF Ishkhan, Vazgen Manukyan, and Vanetsyan. Ind. MP Babajanyan: the person [Kocharyan], under whose leadership Armenia became a vassal [of Russia], thanks to your [current government] inactions is today able to declare war on Armenian citizens, the government, and threatens to participate in elections and "կրել" (slang word used by Kocharyan to describe victory). While Armenia was de-facto in war, that person moved the army from the front lines to Yerevan Center to murder protesters on March 1st, 2008. And you are still allowing him to talk about the army today. Under his watch we had the highest number of political murders and imprisonments; today he preaches about "democracy". https://factor.am/334806.html , https://factor.am/334863.html
trips and meetings
Pashinyan met farmers and officials in Ararat province to discuss agricultural efforts, installation of efficient irrigation networks, farming subsidies, and ways to reduce the size of arable lands that are currently abandoned. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042254.html Nature Minister met an EU envoy to discuss global environmental issues, topics relating to water in Lake Sevan, water-efficient irrigation, etc. With the support of "Water Initiative +", the government is developing a basin management plan for Sevan, which aims to structure and improve water resources management in the long run. Full: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042257.html Netherlands ambassador met Deputy PM Avinyan POWs, humanitarian issues, business investments, agriculture. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042288.html
Foreign Minister about Armenian monuments in Turkey
The MFA condemned the routine practice of selling and "repurposing" Armenian churches and other monuments in Turkey, and statements that accompany them. One such incident happened a few weeks ago in Bursa, where a church building was put on sale for 6.3M Lira. "Calls for cooperation in regional peace and stability by a state with such an attitude towards historical and cultural monuments can not be credible." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042242.html
search operations
Search crews found one body in the southern Hadrut region. The operations are paused at the request of Azerbaijan, without an explanation. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042217.html
South Australia recognizes the independence of the Republic of Artsakh
Sasna Tsrer trial: lawyer wants Pashinyan to appear in court
Nationalist anti-Serj group Sasna Tsrer organized a hostage takeover at a police station in Yerevan in 2016. Policemen were killed. Several Tsrer members have since been locked up. They are facing life sentences for murder. Pashinyan, at the time an opposition figure, played the role of a "mediator" to de-escalate the situation. He was able to enter the facility and talk to the gunmen. Tsrer eventually surrendered. Today, Tsrer lawyer asked the court to bring Pashinyan, "possibly as a defendant", over some statement that he made while outside the facility. (Relevant: the lawyer Zaruhi Postanjyan and her client Sasna Tsrer are heavily anti-Pashinyan politically.) Prosecutor called it a diversion tactic by the defense and argued against it. "Pashinyan made a statement saying he wanted to know details about the murder incident. According to defense logic, anyone who wonders about the incident should be called to testify in court." The court found the defense argument unreasonable and decided not to summon Pashinyan. https://factor.am/334681.html , https://factor.am/334697.html , https://factor.am/334702.html , https://factor.am/334705.html
update: rural residents can receive medication faster via Post Office
Haypost has launched the program to deliver drugs over mail. "Even those who live in the furthest location will have access to all medication available in Yerevan." Healthcare Ministry issued Haypost a pharmacy license. A pilot program was earlier conducted in 10 villages. Today, it's available in 757 postal offices. This is a part of a wider push by the government to make Haypost a Swiss army knife to allow rural residents to handle government paperwork, financing, banking, and other activities. It was followed by the decision to suspend Haypost's privatization. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042227.html
government will subsidize grain production
As mentioned earlier, most of Artsakh's grain production has stopped due to land losses. Artsakh used to supply grains to Armenia. The Armenian government drafted a plan to help farmers to boost the production in existing lands. Some 24K hectares will produce 30% more harvest. 1kg of seed will cost 50% less for ordinary farmers, and 70% less for those near borders. The project will cost ֏701M. www.civilnet.am/news/2021/02/03/Արցախի-տարածքային-կորուստներից-հետո-կառավարությունը-կսուբսիդավորի-հացահատիկի-արտադրությունը/418222
The flights resumed with Russia. The first day was chaotic. Many people were upset because they couldn't fly. Due to demand and possibly other reasons, ticket prices were very high. "More people arrived than left on the first day. Many Armenians who had earlier went to Russia for work were unable to return home for almost a year. When the routine flights are resumed, we think the arrivals will increase and they'll spend money here," said Pashinyan while meeting a shop owner in Ararat who said his trade turnover declined by 20%. Russian govt said the routine flights will resume on February 15th. The move was made possible by a cooperation between AM-RU-EAEU governments to establish a COVID-checking mechanism before arrival. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042273.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042268.html
Armenia will also purchase Sputnik-V vaccine as part of global program
Healthcare Ministry had earlier announced that they reached an agreement with a global COVAX FACILITY program to purchase the British AstraZeneca vaccine. Today the Minister Avanesyan met Russian ambassador Kopyrkin to discuss the topic. Armenia will use the same global program to purchase the Russian Sputnik spaceship to land on Mars before Elon Musk does (this is an Easter egg). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042282.html
Areni - one of the most beautiful settlements aspires to become a serious tourist center
you only jogged 1km instead of the usual 5... why?
Maybe you were not in a "mood"? Is something bothering you? How about consulting a psychologist? "Athletes preparing for the Olympics will receive psychological services," said Deputy Education/Sports Minister Karen Giloyan (yes, your favorite տելեվիզրի դզադզյան). "We must restore our former traditions and have representatives in international organizations and federations. This representation will only have a positive impact on the performance of our athletes on international platforms, and on raising the prestige of our country. We will hold routine seminars." Full: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042294.html
Hexact - Armenian tech firm
"Meet Hexometer, your AI sidekick that works 24/7 to catch problems before they affect your business," reads the message on Hexometer.com, a tool created by Armenian developers to aid webmasters. The firm was founded two years ago in the US and has 15,000 active users from 135 countries. The team plans to hire 10 experts this year. More: https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289900/
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
For the full article with sources, links, pictures, graphs, and tweets (3 clicks as is required by the owner of this subreddit) click ViralTexas here or on related subreddits then click the stickied thread titled: (Jan.18-24) Covid's high-water mark begins to ebb amid a hurricane of death The Virus Atmosphere Covid hospitalizations in Texas finally appear to have peaked and begun to recede. On January 18th 13,928 people were hospitalized with covid. By Sunday the 24th, that number fell to 12,899 with 721 remaining ICU beds in the state, the most since late 2020. At least 50 Texas ICU’s have been operating at over 100% reported capacity for weeks. Texas hit a new record high of single day reported deaths with 450 reported Wednesday. This is being referred to locally as Benghazi times one hundred and twelve. 17/22 TSA’s remain above the 15% covid patients of total hospital capacity threshold set by Governor Abbott to create an illusion that his executive orders were not actually solely designed to prevent lockdowns and protect businesses. The NYT reports new cases in Texas are down -16% in the last two weeks. Though we know this is a completely unreliable metric since the state is still not reporting antigen tests for the majority of Texas’ population. We’re still mostly flying blind. California has now reported 21 million more PCR tests than Texas. New York has reported 12 million more. Deaths have not come down and are not expected to for several weeks. The NYT tracker shows a +36% increase in covid deaths in Texas over the last two weeks. The PCR test positivity rate hung around 16.5% all week, mostly unchanged from the previous week then dropping a full percent on Sunday. The new director of the CDC said to expect half a million American covid deaths by mid-February. It was reported on Jan 20th that 100,000 Americans had died of covid-19 in the previous 36 days. The U.S. is currently over 425,000 covid fatalities and Texas is at 35,000. Print this one out and frame it, America’s covid hospitalizations have fallen way down to be at only 2x the late July hospitalizations. 1,713,000 vaccination doses have now been administered in Texas - consisting of 1,459,293 single doses and 254,687 people fully vaccinated. This is roughly 400,000 new injections reported over the week, a drop in injections from the previous week. Dr. David Lakey, former Texas Commissioner on Health and vice chancellor for health affairs and chief medical officer of the University of Texas System, predicts that Texas will not enter the next phase of public vaccinations until early summer.
This is a very tough situation. Right now, the state of Texas gets about 330,000 doses per week, but we have 30 million Texans. So that 330,000 doses is not what we need.
As the chart below shows; California has now administered half a million more doses than Texas despite pausing on hundreds of thousands of their Moderna vaccines and Florida and New York have nearly caught up to us. It was reported that children now account for 1/5 new covid cases in El Paso as they returned to in-person classes Thursday. Houston had to clear out two nightclubs for repeatedly exceeding covid capacity restrictions despite having used Governor-King McDeathRiddle’s legal trickery to turn into a fake restaurant to get around shutting down. The clubs are considered not a bar because 51%+ of their revenue comes from ticket sales.
“Pena said once everyone was cleared out, they did give the club the option to reopen at proper capacity, but the owners decided not to.“
Half credit to Mayor Turner. Legitimate restaurants should not actually be open at this time. TABC then suspended liquor permits for Grooves, Cle, and Spire. A third of coronavirus hospitalized patients are showing back up at the hospital within five months. Scientific American put out a good read on how covid can cause forgetfulness, psychosis, mania, stutter, and other persistent neurological symptoms. The Atlantic also had a good one about how we need to vaccinate kids in order to reach herd immunity. The current vaccines were not tested on anyone below age 16. A new study by researchers from the University of Georgia published in the journal Viruses found that mice that contract covid through their nasal passages developed a covid infection able to hide in their brains and develop reoccurring severe illness after the virus was no longer detectable in their lungs.
The study found that the virus was located in the brains of mice at a level 1,000 times higher than any other area of the body.
Taking this to its logical conclusion we will soon begin wearing noseplugs under our masks. Or perhaps nose-breathing elitists will now be filtered out of the human gene pool and mouthbreathers will inherit the Earth. Many patients who suffered mild initial virus symptoms are beginning to turn up with debilitating ‘ post-covid-acute syndrome’ months later. The CDC reports that up to 35% of those infected endure symptoms lasting beyond three weeks. New research out of Oxford University found that indoor speaking spreads covid just as easily as coughing. The Governor held a presser midweek in Houston to tout how great he’s doing on vaccines and he excluded Mayor Turner and Judge Hidalgo from the briefing. He later announced he was deploying more medical personnel and equipment to Laredo, which has one of the worst outbreaks in the world. 13-year-old Alina Valenzuela, who had no known pre-existing conditions, is now on life support in Houston after suffering covid induced cardiac arrest. She has gone through two heart surgeries in just the last few days to install a heart pump then a stint. It was reported that an anti-vaccine group surely sarcastically named the“Informed Consent Action Network” based in Austin was among five other anti-vax organizations that received over $850,000 in PPP covid relief funds.
“The Austin-based nonprofit has more than 43,000 followers on Facebook and regularly posts information questioning the safety of the coronavirus vaccines.“
Evidence suggests covid reinfection is more likely with the new variants, particularly the Brazil (P1) variant after a huge resurgence of the outbreak in Manaus which had previously attained herd immunity. Meanwhile, the South African variant shows resistance to antibodies gained from earlier covid infections. British PM Boris Johnson held a news conference with UK Chief Science Advisor Patrick Vallance on the 22nd and said he now has evidence that not only is the UK variant more transmissible, it is also more lethal. So it’s just great that we’re still importing it. Another new American covid variant was discovered in Los Angeles over the week. A separate variant was previously detected in Ohio. Houston lit up in amber the city hall, the airports, and many places downtown to honor the memory of covid victims. Some notable Covid fatalities over the week include; Interview legend Larry King.
"For 63 years and across the platforms of radio, television and digital media, Larry's many thousands of interviews, awards, and global acclaim stand as a testament to his unique and lasting talent as a broadcaster."
Louis Ayala of Fort Worth, the oldest barber in Texas, died after contracting covid and pneumonia.
"That's the hard part is, him being a statistic. With all the doubters out there that this disease is a hoax or fake or whatever, it is real. It's real tough and hit our family," said Ayala's son Sam.
The Baylor University community is mourning the loss of 21-year-old graduate student Alicia Martinez. Alicia earned an Associate’s degree before graduating high school and was the captain of her robotics team for two years.
“Alicia was a bright light who deeply impacted our Grassroots family through her passion and enthusiasm,” Jones said. “Her openness put others quickly at ease and ensured that you felt like you really knew her moments after meeting her. Alicia’s critical thinking and poignant question asking pushed me to stretch, grow, and become a better supervisor because of my relationship with her.”
The Political Atmosphere In a shocking development to absolutely nobody, multiple of the celebrity douchelords pictured here unmasked and enjoying each other’s point-blank indoor lung exhaust have tested positive for covid-19. This resulted in the cancellation of Dave Chappelle’s remaining Austin shows. Actually shocking however was Texas’ most powerful criminal/cop Ken Paxton, who did not receive his expected reciprocal pardon from the outgoing criminal president*. This sent a glorious sound echoing through every canyon and holler across Texas. After enormous state government republicans threats, Dallas County officials including Judge Clay Jenkins decided not to risk their entire vaccine allotment by prioritizing black and brown communities at increased vulnerability of covid. More neo-nazi insurrectionists were arrested in Texas over the week for their part in the January 6th attack. Protestors left coffins in Ted Cruz’s yard with the names of the five who died in the attack. Governor Abbott feigned hardcore outrage and threats at the Pentagon over the National Guard troops he sent being screened at the Capitol ahead of the Biden inauguration. The most offensive thing he’s ever heard? The lady doth protest too much, methinks. 12 National Guards did end up being removed from the Capitol prior to the inauguration. He really didn’t want those soldiers to be screened for extremism for some weird reason. I can’t think of many reasons why he would be screeching at the Pentagon not to screen them. Either, he has become a very emotional lawyer and despite not giving a single fuck about the pandemic he developed deep and profound concerns for the dignity of Texans, or maybe, just maybe, ol Greggo was hoping to send a few extremists. If you know of a better explanation for this insane behavior, please share it with me. Speaking of Texan extremists who were present on January 6th at the Capitol attack and broadcasting for profit, Alex Jones can be sued into oblivion now that the Supreme Court of Texas found that Infowars is subject to liability in four separate defamation suits filed mostly for him lying on-air about school massacres and calling grieving parents of dead elementary students “crisis actors”. Sorry Alex, this is not a valid legal defense in the state of Texas. Thanks for reading. Consider tossing a donation to ICNA Relief, the First Nations Development Institute, or the Texas Civil Rights Project and while you’re here please help me out and share it.
BMO Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Economist January 18th, 2021
Canadian housing starts fell 12.6% to 228,279 annualized in December. The drop was more than expected as the volatile multis fell 15.5% while single-family starts slid 6.1%. Still, the six-month moving average hit239,052, the highest in thirteen years. And, for all of 2020, starts averaged 218,948, a three-year high, with singles pushing up, after falling for two straight years. Demand for detached homes has been supported by both record-low interest rates and remote workers looking to move out of the city for larger space.
Regionally, the December drop was concentrated in Ontario (-16.4%) and Quebec (-16.0%), though both provinces saw the best year since 2004. That’s quite remarkable, especially for Quebec, given the fact that restrictions in the province forced the sector to grind to a halt in April. Starts in B.C. fell 12.1% in the month, though Kelowna was not included in the tally amid COVID restrictions. Meantime, the Prairie Region fell 2.2%, but remained within a tight range and Atlantic Canada declined 6.3%.
Bottom Line: In spite of the pandemic-related plunge in the spring, housing has turned out to be one of the strongest sectors in 2020. While home construction has helped propel the recovery, we expect activity to moderate slightly in the year ahead amid slower population growth and still-soft labour market conditions.
Covid-19 Update for January 7: 968 new cases, 1,096 recoveries, 24 deaths + Update on Schools and Restrictions
Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's media availability by Dr Deena Hinshaw and Premier Jason Kenney. Dr Hinshaw's next availability will be tomorrow There are currently enhanced measures in effect for the province of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Top line numbers:
For values where "Current" and "Total" are the same, I have left results under Total
Value
Current
Change
Total
Total cases
—
+968
108,469
Active cases
13,298
152
—
Cases with "Unknown source"
3,801 (55.5%) in last 7 days
-418 (-3.6%)
—
Tests
—
+14,866 (~6.63% positive)
2,888,432
People tested
—
+4,061
1,679,738 (~384,291/million)
Hospitalizations
871
-40/-54 based on yesterday's post/portal data
4,443 (+78)
ICU
139
-2/-3 based on yesterday's post/portal data
712 (+9)
Deaths
—
+24
1,217
Recoveries
—
+1,096
93,954
Vaccinations
—
+3,831
33,864 (~7,747/million)
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket
Deaths
50-59
2
60-69
2
70-79
10
80+
10
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths:
All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
Zone
Active Cases
People Tested
Total
New Cases
Total
New Deaths
Total
Calgary
4,739 (+33)
+1,910
678,846
+406
41,500
+9
384
Central
1,381 (-37)
+418
149,192
+98
7,364
+1
50
Edmonton
5,465 (-208)
+989
561,675
+313
46,386
+13
646
North
1,384 (+67)
+375
156,065
+133
7,834
+0
73
South
252 (-1)
+228
104,111
+21
5,167
+0
63
Unknown
77 (-66)
+141
29,849
-3
218
+1
1
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
The value is updated by Alberta Health on Mondays
Zone
R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide
0.99 (0.97-1.01)
Edmonton
0.92 (0.89-0.95)
Calgary
1.02 (0.99-1.06)
Rest of Province
1.06 (1.01-1.10)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality
Total
Active
Recovered
Deaths
Edmonton
37,892 (+256)
4,487 (-168)
32,860 (+411)
545 (+13)
Calgary
35,001 (+329)
4,028 (+24)
30,624 (+297)
349 (+8)
Red Deer
1,579 (+11)
252 (-5)
1,319 (+16)
8 (+1)
Fort McMurray
1,476 (+24)
266 (+17)
1,207 (+7)
3 (+0)
Lethbridge
1,463 (+6)
80 (-2)
1,374 (+8)
9 (+0)
Brooks
1,354 (+1)
13 (+1)
1,327 (+0)
14 (+0)
Grande Prairie
861 (+8)
128 (-2)
724 (+10)
9 (+0)
High River + county
738 (+1)
30 (-1)
701 (+2)
7 (+0)
Mackenzie county
496 (+1)
19 (-3)
462 (+4)
15 (+0)
Medicine Hat
482 (+3)
37 (+0)
436 (+3)
9 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff)
391 (+1)
14 (+0)
377 (+1)
0
Cardston county
299 (+5)
30 (+2)
263 (+3)
6 (+0)
Wheatland county
191 (+2)
28 (+1)
163 (+1)
0
Warner county
146 (+0)
3 (+0)
141 (+0)
2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality
124 (+1)
7 (+0)
117 (+1)
0
Rest of Alberta
25,976 (+319)
3,876 (-16)
21,859 (+332)
241 (+3)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link Schools with outbreaks are listed online. Quick numbers (as of Dec 23):
122 schools are on Watch
172 schools have 2-4 cases
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change as of yesterday's post):
Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone
Hospitalized
ICU
Calgary
241 (-13)
48 (-2)
Edmonton
455 (-24)
64 (+0)
Central
92 (-5)
17 (+0)
South
19 (+1)
3 (+0)
North
64 (+1)
7 (+0)
Statements by Premier Kenney Opening Statements
Will be holding a conference tomorrow with regards to vaccines
School Update
In-person classes on January 11th will proceed
Decision made by weighing benefits of in-person school (e.g. - metal health) as well as all school age groups seeing drops in cases
Advice from Chief Medical Officer and Ministry of Education
Notes that younger children may struggle with in-home learning, especially with social development those in lower income families
Knows there is some anxiety, but wants to note that 0.4% of students/staff tested positive
Still notes many still did receive Covid-19 and is dedicated to safe school environment
Restrictions
Covid-19 remains broadly spread with few exceptions
High positive test rate: 2% used to be high. Now we're near 7%
Province is still ahead of most provinces, per capita, in cases and deaths
We would have seen far more cases had we tested more over holidays
Hospitalization and ICU cases are far too high
This isn't an Alberta problem: same is true outside Atlantic bubble
In anticipation of an increase after the holidays (as well as considering hospital burden), measures will remain in effect until the 21st at the least
Emphasizes need to prioritize school over other segments
Travel of Politicians
Knows it's frustrating, especially with politicians travelling. Knows Albertans are angry and they are right to be. It was insulting for Albertans to see leaders travel
Albertans wanted consequences and, after hearing it, has enforced them
Those responsible lost positions and were demoted
Frustration cannot stop hard decisions to protect public health
The trust is broken and must be repaired - feels MLAs took the right tone by taking a pay cut and must get back to that style of leadership
Apologizes for what happened and accepts responsibility for not laying clearer expectations
The Future of Restrictions
Health officials reviewing data over following weeks
Any changes will occur 1+ week in advance as businesses asking for certainty and predictability
Q&A - Travel
Why did you not want to punish MLAs on New Year's Day and change 3 days later?: Didn't know members of caucus were out of country. First learned about it on 29th and wasn't aware until 3rd of full whereabouts and that a significant lapse in party judgment occurred. Didn't want to enforce consequences because he wasn't clear enough but heard the anger from Albertans
(Interjection: I was having a hard time with the timeline and Tracy Allard's story, but from what I can tell based on when comments were posted online, I believe Kenney's claim is that he personally wasn't aware of Allard's travel by the 1st when he held a conference. Source outlets (e.g. - CBC) claimed by sources on the 31st was that Allard had travelled to Hawaii, though I forget if it was confirmed by the government as of yet)
Do you the shaking of public trust makes it harder to make decisions on Covid-19?: It makes it harder for cabinet. Feels now the government has shown consequences for the actions and now needs to rebuild trust...but cannot take risks with Covid-19 despite it. Argues the restrictions in Alberta are balanced and less stringent than other provinces
Will the punishment be the same for new rule breakers?: Yes, for senior members of public trust - elected officials, political staff, executive leaders in Alberta public service. Don't think it's right to regulate all government officials (specifically those with collective bargaining right)
How you respond to calls for further calls (notes "#FireKenney")?: Has complied with all guidelines and has only done window visits to only family member in province. Has only been out province once to Ottawa and hasn't been out of country. Doesn't govern to Twitter hashtags
How do you respond to other groups saying to not travel?: Not telling, but position is to facilitate safe travel: if you travel, be safe. Notes he was early in calling for restrictions from China/Iran. Also recommended negative tests much earlier than federal government adopted
Q&A - Vaccine
How concerned are you about vaccine supply?: Subject of tomorrow's conference. There is concern that as inoculation rate increases, supply may become limiting factor. Doesn't "point fingers", but needs supply procured from federal government ASAP because every day delayed risks public health
Statements by Dr Hinshaw Additional Comments
Cases have decreased since December, but is still high...well over 1,000 daily on average
Hospitalization remains high and healthcare under extreme pressure
Still haven't seen impact of holidays
Choice for in-school was based on evidence in fall, where cases were tied to community spread primarily (6% of school aged children's cases were acquired at school)
Although elementary age children remained in school for December, their age specific case rates had dropped identical to older students
Priority is school as other settings have been a stronger driver of spread
No risk free options, but data indicates current model is effective at limiting transmission
Must continue to stay this course
Q&A - Travel
Where should Albertans turn for advise on travel?: Advise is to not undertake non-essential travel and, if you must, be aware of the regulations in each province. Outside of Canada, Public Health Agency of Canada provides recommendations (even outside of Covid-19)
Q&A - Vaccine
How long until we run out of vaccine?: No particular date as regular shipments are coming in. Working with AHS to inoculate faster
Additional information will be logged below:
The final question was in French. I am not able to translate it. According to Premier Kenney, the question is about extending health restrictions and on travel.
Sometimes the stars align, and everything just goes right—then there is 2020. After a year in which very little went right, perhaps it’s encouraging that Jupiter and Saturn moved into alignment late in December. Apparently, the conjunction between the two planets on Monday—also the Winter Solstice—was the closest in almost 800 years. But that’s not a key plank in our above-consensus call for the global and Canadian economy in 2021. We believe that there are many, more compelling, signposts that activity is coiling for a powerful rebound in the coming year after an incredibly challenging spell.
From Pandemic to Pandemonium?
The global economy is expected to rebound 5.5% in 2021, and then advance another 4.0% in 2022, after plunging 4.0% this year. To put those figures into some perspective, the prior worst recorded year in the post-war era had been a drop of ‘just’ 0.1% in 2009, while a typical year for the world economy in recent times would see growth something just a bit above 3%. A keen observer would note that even with our call of a strong rebound in the coming two years that the level of activity would still be well below its underlying trend by the end of 2022. Part of that shortfall reflects the simple fact that some of this year’s loss on spending in the service sector—such as on travel, entertainment, restaurants—may never be recouped.
The other part of the shortfall, though, may also suggest that even our relatively upbeat view on the next two years is actually understating the potential for growth to snap back. Insofar as vaccines are rolled out effectively, and there is a strong take-up, there is a case to be made that we are underestimating growth in the second half of next year and into 2022. Incredibly supportive fiscal and monetary policies, robust financial conditions (i.e., lofty asset prices), heavy-duty pent-up demand, and the build-up of excess household savings in many economies point to the possibility of a serious burst in spending later next year.
China serves as a clear example of how forcefully things can bounce back as conditions return to something approaching normality. Both retail sales and industrial production have carved out nearly a perfect V-shaped recovery in the world’s second largest economy. Famously, it will thus be one of the few nations to post any growth this year; some of the other lucky few will include Taiwan, Vietnam and Ireland. We look for China to build on this year’s constrained 2% rise with a robust 8% surge in 2021, before easing back to a more trend-like 5% in the following year. The three-year average growth rate of about 5% will pale only somewhat compared with the pre-virus trend of just over 6%. The sturdy rebound is a major reason why non-oil commodity prices—particularly base metals—have seen such a remarkably fast recovery even amid the deepest global downturn in decades.
One implication of the relatively robust recovery in commodity prices, as well as the deep dive in interest rates and strong financial markets, is that emerging markets held up relatively well overall. Despite a vicious drop in global GDP and the wild financial market turmoil in the spring, most emerging market economies avoided the worst. While there were some very specific cases of financial strains—Turkey—most were able to slash borrowing rates, capital flows resumed after a brief stall, and currencies began to recover as the U.S. dollar faded through the second half of the year. This is not to minimize the severe challenges many emerging economies face, especially those heavily reliant on tourism. But, the resiliency of the developing world and a crisis averted on this front is a case of the dog that didn’t bark.
In the advanced economies, sectors that were able to reopen did see a rapid V-shaped recovery in Q3 from the spring shutdowns, and that provides comfort for the call for strong gains in 2021. However, large portions of the economy have still been left behind, and the furious second wave has seen broadening and deepening restrictions across much of the OECD more recently. Amid the patchwork of varying measures, it’s incredibly difficult to assess the economic damage from the second-wave containment steps. It appears that financial markets are all but ignoring the mounting bad news and focusing on the post-vaccine world. But that doesn’t get around the fact that we are about to face a wave of tough economic statistics in coming weeks, most likely including an outright drop in European GDP in Q4, and a near-miss in other economies.
The Euro Area and the U.K. are going to report some of the biggest economic declines in the world for 2020, owing to both their especially challenging experience with the virus but also due to a heavy reliance on the service sector (notably tourism). The flip-side is that these economies may also be poised for the biggest snapbacks. After a near-7% drop in the Euro Area, we look for a 5.5% rebound in the coming year, and then a 3% advance in 2022. The U.K. was hit even harder with a massive 10.5% setback this year, with Brexit uncertainty weighing on top of everything else. With a trade deal with the EU hanging in the balance, a partial recovery is still likely in 2021. (On a technical note, the dive in U.K. GDP appears to be exaggerated by an unusually large reported drop in government spending, which may also set the stage for an unusually big rebound in 2021.)
Elsewhere, Japan saw a somewhat lighter hit than other major developed economies with a drop of just over 5% this year—everything is relative—even though it entered the year already in recession after 2019's sales tax hike. Given that nation’s weak underlying growth and a milder setback in 2020, we expect a more modest 3.5% recovery in 2021, even with the delayed Tokyo Olympics. Australia also was relatively less hard-hit, despite the massive wildfires at the start of the year, a one-sided trade fight with China, and a strong lockdown in Victoria. While the RBA is trying to hold it back, the Australian dollar is now up more than 10% from a year ago and not far from parity with the loonie at around 76 cents(US).
When the final numbers are in for 2020, one truly unusual development (among the many) is that the U.S. economy is likely to print one of the smallest declines in the advanced world. We have chopped this wood before, but the short story is that the U.S. benefited from some of the strongest policy medicine in the world as well as its outsized tech sector. However, we also have to point out that restrictions were relatively light in the U.S. compared to others—even now, with some of the highest virus caseloads in the world on a per capita basis—and thus the direct economic hit was lighter. As the year draws to a close, the new round of fiscal support of $900 billion (or a hefty 4% of GDP), including direct payments of $600 per individual, awaits the President's support. If enacted in a timely fashion, this could add to our upgraded call of 4.5% GDP growth for next year; we have also bumped up our 2022 call by half a point to 3.5%. Yes, one could say that the vaccine has moved the needle on growth, pardon the awful pun.
We have also tweaked our call on Canadian growth over the next two years. However, unlike the U.S., this revision is not one-sided to the high side. Full disclosure, we have been relentlessly on the high side of consensus for more than six months now, and remain there even with these revisions. Still, the deepening restriction measures in Canada, with the clear prospect of more in coming weeks—including new school closures in some provinces—have prompted us to trim our Q1 call to close to zero. Even with a stronger second-half rebound, courtesy of the vaccine (first injection just this week in Canada as well), this will clip the full-year estimate for GDP growth by half a point to 5.0%. But, at the same time, we are also lifting the view on 2022 on the upbeat vaccine developments by half a point to a sturdy 4.5%, leaving activity at the same spot as we had expected before by the end of that year. While we have trimmed our 2021 call, note that the risks appear evenly balanced; that is, there is still some serious upside risk to this forecast, and the recent strength in commodity prices, and financial markets in general, are certainly pointing in that direction.
Beyond the growth outlook, of course there are many, many other economic issues and concerns swirling in this tumultuous environment, which are mostly covered in the following Thoughts. But one pressing question we have fielded almost since the first days of the pandemic response is whether there is a risk that inflation could return amid the tidal wave of stimulus. These concerns may well grow louder in the coming year, especially if growth comes close to the upside possibilities. And the Fed has essentially told us that they will tolerate a bout of above-target inflation. As if on cue, Canada printed a high-side surprise for CPI of 1.0% y/y in November, and the spurt in oil to $49 points to further headline pressure. But also note that Japan, China and the Euro Area are all still posting outright declines in headline prices, while core inflation is effectively stuck in neutral in North America. Ultimately, while the tail risks for inflation have fattened, we believe that even in a world of a potentially rapid recovery, overwhelming slack in many sectors, and an overhang of unemployment for years, any burst in headline inflation will simply not be sustained.
U.S. Economy: Cheers to a Healthier Year
Following the worst year since 1946, the U.S. economy can only do better in 2021: the question is how much better? With the pandemic raging and Congress wrangling, the new year is likely to come in like a lamb, but it should go out like a lion as mass inoculations pave a return to near-normalcy.
With a second wave of the coronavirus now topping the first in daily caseloads and fatalities, more states are curbing business activity; mostly indoor dining, bars, gyms and some close-contact services. While the constraints are a pale imitation of the spring shutdowns—when factories and schools were shuttered—they could still cause the recovery to grind to a halt for a few months. Thankfully, Congress has passed another stimulus bill of around $900 billion that will extend support programs for the unemployed, assistance to small businesses, and moratoriums on tenant evictions. Though pending sign-off by the President, the bill will avert the loss of extended UI benefits for more than 12 million Americans, which would have sliced annual personal income growth by roughly 4 ppts in Q1. Instead, incomes will enjoy a nice pop from $600 rebates, allowing spending to avoid starting the new year like the last one, in a deep hole that it needs to climb out of.
Once we get past the turn of the year the COVID clouds will begin to part. The vaccine rollout will gradually put an end to the restrictions on activity, while slowly unleashing a year’s worth of pent-up demand for travel, indoor dining, and entertainment. The willingness to spend will be matched only by the ability to shop, as a mountain of excess savings (estimated at over 6% of annual GDP) has accrued during the pandemic. At the same time, rising equity and home values are padding household wealth, another source of spending. Low interest rates will support mortgage refinancings and household borrowing, driving a 5%-plus rebound in consumer spending in 2021. While home sales are likely to slip from recent 14-year highs, the housing market should remain strong. Home prices should keep rising and residential construction will stay firm amid the tightest resale markets on record and a potential upturn in immigration under a Biden presidency.
Powered by the need to expand digital platforms for customers and workers, business spending has rebounded sharply, and will receive an extra lift in 2021 from rising commercial structures beyond the already-ample need for industrial and warehouse space. Multi-family housing in major cities will get relief from easing pandemic anxiety, allaying recent downward pressure on rents, notably in San Francisco and New York. But don’t expect office construction to return to pre-virus levels, as a partial shift toward remote work will reduce long-term demand. Some office buildings will need to be repurposed along multi-channel lines for working, living, and shopping including online fulfilment. Slower to return will be bricks-and-mortar retail, as millions of converts have taken the online route during the pandemic—e-commerce generated 14.3% of U.S. retail sales in the third quarter, up 3 ppts from late last year.
The economy is expected to grow 4.5% in 2021, the best year since the 1999 tech boom. The jobless rate should fall from 6.7% currently to 5.3% by year-end, though it could take until 2023 to fully recover the initial 22 million plunge in payrolls. The range of uncertainty around our forecast remains wide. Major downside risks include possible glitches in the vaccine rollout, an adverse mutation of the virus, and the unwinding of fiscal support in the spring. One threat we probably won’t need to worry about is a spike in inflation (and interest rates), given the dynamic duo of lofty unemployment and advanced automation. More likely is a correction in asset prices if they run too far ahead of fundamentals. Unlike in 2020, however, there’s also substantial upside for the economy. A smoother rollout of vaccines could lead to early herd immunity. As well, consumers could simply “let loose” after spending a year in COVID prison. A Democrat sweep of the two Senate runoff seats on January 5 would also usher in more fiscal stimulus and a wave of new spending on infrastructure, education, housing, child care and the environment, with some offset from higher corporate income taxes and tighter regulations. The only certainty about the coming year is that it won’t be boring—though we could stand for much less excitement than the past year.
Fed Policy and U.S. Rates Outlook
We look for the Federal Reserve to remain steadfast as 2021 unfolds, maintaining a policy bias to increase accommodation further if necessary, particularly during the first third of the year as surging COVID-19 cases and consequent increases in business and social restrictions weigh on economic growth.
On December 16, the FOMC repeated that it would maintain the 0%-to-0.25% fed funds target range “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time”. But, it committed more concretely to “continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals”, compared to the prior looser commitment to purchasing “over coming months… at least at the current pace”.
This more accommodative policy step was not as big as it could have been (e.g., increasing the pace and/or weighted-average-maturity of purchases), likely reflecting the FOMC’s upgraded medium-term economic outlook (thank you, vaccines) and anticipation of more accommodative fiscal policy.
Congress passed the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 on December 21, but, at the time of writing, it was uncertain whether President Trump would sign it. The omnibus bill includes the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and other pandemic-related measures. Weighing in at 4.3% of nominal GDP, the $900 billion relief package will go a long way in helping the U.S. economy ride out COVID’s winter wave. The largest components include $284 billion to reopen the Paycheck Protection Program, $166 billion for a second round of direct payments to individuals and families, and $120 billion to extend enhanced unemployment benefits (through March and April).
In the Summary of Economic Projections, the ‘dot plot’ showed only 5 of 17 participants pencilling in a rate hike by the end of 2023, just one more than in September despite the upgraded medium-term economic outlook. For 2021-22, real GDP growth is 0.2 ppts higher with the jobless rate 0.4-to-0.5 ppts lower, and the CBO-defined output gap closes by 2022-end instead of after 2023. However, the top of the central tendency range of inflation projections only gets above 2.0% (to 2.1%) in 2023, far from the criterion to “moderately exceed 2 percent for some time”.
Our other working assumption is that the Fed won’t tighten until early 2024, with the net risk weighing on the side of sooner action. With policy rates remaining at their effective lower bound at least until 2023, the front-end of the yield curve should remain restrained apart from what separate demand and supply pressures might materialize in the bond market, pressures that matter more for the back-end of the curve. Big budget deficits are projected to persist, keeping Treasury supply pressure on the boil. Meanwhile, investor risk appetites should be whetted as the rollout of vaccines brightens economic prospects and the attraction of riskier asset classes. Not helping this pending imbalance, beyond the next 12 months, we expect the Fed to start tapering purchases and to have stopped growing its balance sheet within the next 24 months.
However, any prospective increases in longer-term bond yields should be well-checked by policy rates remaining ‘low for long’, and inflation pressures remaining well-contained by economic slack (at least for a couple of years) along with the secular forces of disinflation from technological change (a trend accelerated by the pandemic) and an aging population. For example, we look for 10-year Treasury yields to average around 1.25% by the end of 2021.
Finally, after averaging record highs in April 2020, at the peak of pandemic panic, the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index has slipped about 9.0% reflecting several factors including improving investor-perceived global economic prospects and ebbing risks; U.S. policymakers being relatively aggressive on both the QE and budget deficit fronts; and, the pandemic hitting the U.S. relatively hard. The former factor, particularly, looks to weigh on the greenback further as the distribution of vaccines unfolds globally, weakening the unit another near-3% by the end of 2021.
Canada Rates Preview: Headed Higher
This past year will be remembered as challenging for one and all. The pandemic drove the Bank of Canada into unprecedented territory, with unconventional measures unleashed for the first time, in addition to bringing the policy rate to the effective lower bound. The coming year is expected to be far more subdued on the monetary policy front, with fiscal policy continuing to surge forward.
The Bank of Canada’s task for 2021 will be to ensure that financial conditions don’t tighten prematurely. Our base case is for policy rates to hold steady at 25 bps throughout the year. Rate hikes are off the table, though further easing is possible but would take a deterioration in the outlook (think vaccine issues or something like that). Potential easing measures are more QE, yield curve control, a funding-for-lending scheme and a micro rate cut.
On the QE front, the BoC is going to have to thread the needle with messaging. They already managed to taper once while keeping markets calm. They’ll have to manage that feat again in 2021. We anticipate a modest further tapering, driven entirely by a falling issuance profile for the federal government. The BoC doesn’t want to have too large a footprint, so a pullback once the issuance numbers are finalized is a logical step. In an effort to dampen the market impact, the Bank could again push its purchases further out the curve to minimize the reduction in overall stimulus. This is likely a Q2 story, since the budget usually isn’t released until late March or early April.
Beyond rates and QE, the Bank will also have to manage its forward guidance. January will already be a challenge with the vaccine timeline far more optimistic than they assumed in the October MPR. However, the increasing breadth of COVID restrictions put in place in recent weeks suggests there’s some notable downside to Q1. Even if Q4 is a bit better than the BoC projected, a weak Q1 could be enough to keep the timing of the output gap closing in 2023. Indeed, as noted above, the Bank does not want to prematurely tighten financial conditions, so they’ll likely try to stick with the 2023 forward guidance as timing for rates liftoff for as long as possible.
Finally, the BoC will renew its inflation targeting agreement with the Government of Canada in the coming year. While changes are possible, a mildly modified version of the status quo seems like the most likely outcome at the moment. A small potential tweak might be a greater focus on the 1%-to-3% target band rather than the 2% mid-point. That would provide a bit more policy flexibility, though their current flexible inflation target regime arguably already provides similar room to navigate. Note that Deputy Governor Beaudry’s recent speech hinted in that direction; “But rest assured we will not overuse QE and overshoot our 1 to 3 percent target range for inflation. The exit strategy for our QE program is tied to our inflation goals.”
Looking at the Canada curve, our call for policy rates to stay at the lower bound as the economy continues to recover points to ongoing steepening pressure. While longer-term rates look to rise, we still only have 10-year Canadas at 1.10% at the end of 2021. As we approach the latter stages of the year, steepening pressure could subside a bit as rate hikes potentially start coming into view.
For the loonie, it was a wild 2020 getting absolutely hammered at the height of the crisis, before fully recovering, and then some, to end the year at the strongest in over two years. We’re looking for 2021 to be a bit more subdued with modest strength through the course of the year. An ongoing recovery in the global economy is expected to lift commodity prices, supporting the loonie’s advance. The bigger story on the FX front is the anticipated US$ weakness, which will be tough for any currency to offset.
Canadian Regional Economic and Fiscal Outlook
All Canadian provinces have been hit by the pandemic, forcing some degree of economic disruption and digging fiscal holes of various depth. That said, Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec are clearly facing more stringent containment measures as 2020 winds down, which will weigh on 2021 calendar growth figures. All of these provinces are expected to lag the 5.0% national average, even as they presumably start to see better sequential growth prints toward the end of 2021Q1. With most regions of Ontario also facing some degree of containment, the province will also struggle to outperform; although it is arguably among the best-positioned for a strong recovery later in the year. Atlantic Canada was relatively insulated in 2020, and should see more subdued growth numbers in 2021 as a result, while British Columbia continues to look like an outperformer. Aside from COVID, the regional landscape will also be shaped by subdued energy-sector activity (although late-2020 price action is supportive of industry cash flow), a limited return of travel and tourism, and a continued lull in population flows that had been very supportive (especially in smaller provinces) in recent years.
Housing will remain in focus, as usual, but more so because of the roaring finish to 2020. Sales activity is expected to cool nationally, but prices should remain supported by improving confidence, still-tight supply and record-low interest rates. We expect the MLS HPI to rise 7% in 2021 with the first half of the year still characterized by outsized strength in single-detached homes, especially in smaller markets, partly offset by sluggish condo prices. Whether or not that rotation persists after the vaccine is widely administered is probably a question for the 2022 outlook, but we suspect core urban markets will ultimately find a solid footing again after further underperformance in the meantime. At the same time, more supply and outflows of nonpermanent residents could apply some pressure to urban rents in 2021.
The 2021 provincialfiscal outlook is still highly uncertain given that this year’s starting point for deficit levels is likely subject to meaningful revision. That said, the provinces that have issued FY21/22 guidance are pointing to deficit reductions somewhere in the order of one-third of FY20/21 levels, on average. That amount of consolidation would suggest the combined provincial deficit narrows to around $60 billion from about $93 billion this fiscal year. To be sure, the provinces will remain historically active borrowers and—depending on how much pre-financing takes place before FY20/21 closes—total requirements could top $140 billion, versus this year’s $171 billion pace. While the provincial deficit should be a still-chunky 2.5% of GDP, keep in mind that the federal government will continue to carry the vast majority of the fiscal load, with Ottawa’s deficit likely around $150 billion, or more than 6% of GDP. The big focus will be on how $70-to-$100 billion of yet-to-be-used stimulus spending gets allocated, and if any fiscal anchor re-emerges.
A Year of Global Healing
This is one year that everyone will look forward to with far more anticipation than ever before. The hope is that, in 2021, we can put the pandemic behind us and maybe, just maybe, remove the mask and indulge in a gathering with friends and family. That time will happen at some point and it won’t come soon enough. Look for solid economic rebounds after being crushed in 2020.
Europe was among the first hammered by the coronavirus and it spent most of 2020 protecting the economy. The ECB created a massive bond buying program to keep interest rates low and special facilities that allowed banks to borrow from the central bank at favourable terms on the condition that credit would keep flowing. And EU leaders managed, eventually, to agree on a €1.07 trln long-term budget and a €750 bln EU Recovery Fund, or the Next Generation EU, made up of grants and loans to those countries whose economies took the biggest hit from the lockdowns. That agreement did not come easily but at least there was a rare display of solidarity when it was badly needed. The funds will help Italy, France and Spain, for example, pick up the pieces of their economies and move forward. And as the virus is eventually brought under control, governments will roll out programs to help their fragile economies heal. But there will be a time when the crisis is over that the fiscal hawks will demand evidence from those who received Recovery Fund grants that spending is being reined in. That will be a late 2021/early 2022 story. Next year will also see a rebuilding of relationships between the U.S. and the EU, and perhaps a fresh start on trade issues such as the global digital tax and the long-running Airbus/Boeing dispute. On the political front, Germany’s federal elections will be key. A new head of the ruling CDU will be elected and that person will eventually replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor. Recall she declared in December 2018 that she would not run again at the next federal election after her party’s poor showings during that year’s state elections. It would be interesting to see how Merkel would fare today after her strong leadership during the pandemic, with the latest lockdowns notwithstanding. In any event, a new leader will be named by year-end.
The United Kingdom will begin 2021 with a fresh start on trade and will freely negotiate trade agreements on its own. As soon as January begins, the EU’s Common External Tariff will be replaced with the U.K. Global Tariff, which will apply to imported goods from countries without an existing trade agreement. Currently, the U.K. only has agreements in place with Japan and Switzerland; interim ones with Canada, Mexico and the U.S.; and, a fisheries deal with Norway. Talks are underway with Australia. And, negotiations with the U.S. will restart on a more positive note now that the British government removed the illegal clauses embedded within the Internal Market Bill. However, PM Johnson’s promise that Britain will be more prosperous outside the EU will likely not be realized in 2021 if a trade arrangement is not made with its biggest trading partner. The economy will likely feel the impact of supply disruptions (borders no longer freely open) and higher prices (tariffs now in place), which will hurt confidence and spending. It already had a taste of it after a number of European countries blocked borders and travel with the U.K. as the new strain of the virus spread in December.
Faster, higher, stronger. Yes, Japan is going to give the Summer Olympics another go, with the Games scheduled to run from July 23 to August 8. PM Suga is “determined” to host the Games, and all efforts will be made to have spectators at the events. If the Games are successful, they would bolster his chances of winning a full-term as LDP leader during the party’s September 2021 election.
China was likely one of only a few major economies to grow in 2020, as its early-year hit from the coronavirus gave it more time to recover. That, and the fact that its economy is still focused on goods production and less so on services, benefited GDP during this tumultuous year. Still, the estimated 2% increase would be the slowest in nearly half a century; now, we look for an 8% advance in 2021, even with a stronger yuan. On the foreign relations front, how President Xi gets along with President-elect Biden will be closely watched. Trade relations between China and the U.S., as well as the EU, should be less volatile, but even with the new occupant of the Oval Office, they will take time to warm up. Look for China to focus on trade elsewhere, particularly in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the massive trade agreement between a dozen countries that was signed in November.
Crude Oil Outlook: Tough Road Still Ahead
West Texas Intermediate crude is heading into the new year with plenty of wind behind its back. Thus, it would not be surprising to see WTI cross the $50/bbl threshold, at least temporarily, in the weeks ahead; especially if the rollout of vaccines accelerates and/or the pace of new COVID-19 caseloads markedly decelerates. Looking back, the current price of crude would have appeared almost inconceivable after prices plummeted into negative territory in April.
However, it is not all clear skies ahead for black gold as its supply and demand dynamics remain challenging. This explains why OPEC+, rather wisely, chose to scale down its production target cut by 0.5 mb/d to 7.2 mb/d in January and limit future cuts to no more than 0.5 mb/d per month. OPEC+’s new strategy should help prevent a large market imbalance (i.e., excess crude oil inventories) from building even if demand falters. Indeed, the near-term recovery in global oil demand, which is still roughly 7 mb/d below its pre-pandemic level, has already proven to be bumpy given that a number of countries are in the midst of a second wave of COVID-19 cases and economic lockdowns.
There is also a growing risk that non-OPEC+ supply could begin to escalate. This has been highlighted by the sudden surge in Libyan crude output to around 1.25 mb/d from zero in recent months. A wave of Iranian production could re-enter the market if President-elect Biden were to ease or eliminate sanctions. But the bigger wildcard actually lies closer to home, south of the 49th parallel. As WTI approaches $50, it raises the possibility that recently shut-in shale oil production could be restarted.
As the recovery in both supply and demand is likely to ebb and flow, much will depend on OPEC+’s commitment to balance the oil market. The arduous negotiation over revising the production target in early December revealed deeper divisions within OPEC+ than previously thought and suggests the risk of the cartel breaking down cannot be completely discounted. Furthermore, the spectre of monthly meetings to negotiate production targets could exacerbate the volatility of crude oil prices next year, compared to relative stability in recent months.
Key Takeaway: The prospect for WTI to head much higher will be difficult, especially following this past year’s rather remarkable rebound. That said, we have nudged our forecast for WTI to average $47 in 2021 (previously $45) and have penciled in $50 for 2022.
Canada’s housing market showing signs of vulnerability during COVID-19 pandemic - The Globe and Mail
LINK: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-hamilton-moncton-housing-markets-highly-vulnerable-to-correction-cmhc Canada’s housing market is showing signs of vulnerability during the pandemic, according to a new assessment by the federal housing agency, which is revising an earlier forecast that predicted home prices could drop as much as 18 per cent. Hamilton, Moncton, Montreal and Regina became more susceptible to a housing correction in the third quarter, with the first two most at risk, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s report released on Wednesday. Over all, CMHC found that the country as a whole, along with the most expensive cities of Toronto and Vancouver, remained at a moderate degree of vulnerability to a price correction during the first six months of the pandemic. Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City showed evidence of overheating, while Edmonton, Calgary and Regina displayed signs of overbuilding, which could leave the cities with too much housing. Those factors – overheating and overbuilding – in addition to price acceleration and overvaluation are what CMHC assess to determine a housing market’s health. Since late May, home sales across most of the country have been soaring, with buyers seeking bigger spaces and competing fiercely for houses. One of the only weak spots has been the condo market in downtown Toronto. The country’s home price index, which adjusts for expensive purchases, is up 9 per cent from January to November, and resales are on track to reach a record number this year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. CMHC said the tighter market conditions contributed to a rise in home prices in several cities, “beyond what could be justified by the fundamental drivers of house prices such as income and population growth.” In Hamilton and Moncton, the home price index was up 17 per cent in the twelve months to November, according to CREA, as buyers sought properties outside major employment centres such as Toronto and Mississauga. Being able to work from home has allowed homebuyers to leave major cities for Atlantic Canada, Ontario suburbs and vacation areas such as Muskoka in Ontario and Eastern Townships in Quebec. CMHC expects to issue a new forecast next year and will take into account 2020′s surprising jump in sales and prices. In May, shortly after the pandemic temporarily slowed sales, CMHC predicted a significant drop in prices, sales and housing starts. However, that prediction has yet to come to fruition. “The third quarter of this year was very unanticipated in our forecast. We thought that the third quarter was going to be weaker‚” Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, said on a call to discuss the agency’s latest housing-market assessment. The agency observed the same trends realtors and economists have noticed; demand outpacing supply and low mortgage rates driving up prices. Mr. Dugan said the agency was starting to work on its 2021-22 forecast from a “different launch point, with a much stronger level of activity.” The Canadian Real Estate Association is predicting that the average home price will rise 9 per cent next year, in part because of strong competition in Ontario and Quebec. This year, the country’s average home price is expected to reach a record high of $568,000. But Mr. Dugan said there are still risks and headwinds in the housing market, such as the continued rise in COVID-19 cases, restricted activity and economic slowdown. “The second wave is still on us and causing shutdowns and problems across the country,” he said.
A $20,000 fee to change a wedding date? New bill aims to protect people from 'bad actor catering halls'
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 85%. (I'm a bot)
A general manager at the venue, Atlantic City Country Club, had promised in an email on July 31 that they'd be refunded the money they'd prepaid - less their deposit - if Covid-19 restrictions prevented the wedding and reception from taking place as contracted. Martell's Waters Edge, a waterfront venue in Bayville, where Joseph and Natalie Scarpitto planned to hold their wedding and reception in June, won't refund the more than $10,000 they paid toward their balance - even though the venue couldn't deliver the services promised because of state restrictions that banned large indoor gatherings, the couple said. The motion to dismiss Verzi's lawsuit is scheduled to be heard on Jan. 8.Maloney said some venues are taking advantage of people who prepaid the full cost of a wedding or 50 to 70 percent of the cost. Rothman alleges the venue offered only weekdays to reschedule the wedding and reception. Gopal is looking to cap how much venues can charge to reschedule a wedding at $5,000 to $10,000 and for venues to be required to offer a comparable date. Thomas Daidone, owner-operator of The Estate at Florentine Gardens in River Vale, doesn't support broad restrictions on wedding venues because he said they don't all charge the same amount per person and because what some people consider a date change fee is just a new price structure for a different year.
Canada’s housing market showing signs of vulnerability during COVID-19 pandemic - The Globe and Mail
LINK: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-hamilton-moncton-housing-markets-highly-vulnerable-to-correction-cmhc Canada’s housing market is showing signs of vulnerability during the pandemic, according to a new assessment by the federal housing agency, which is revising an earlier forecast that predicted home prices could drop as much as 18 per cent. Hamilton, Moncton, Montreal and Regina became more susceptible to a housing correction in the third quarter, with the first two most at risk, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s report released on Wednesday. Over all, CMHC found that the country as a whole, along with the most expensive cities of Toronto and Vancouver, remained at a moderate degree of vulnerability to a price correction during the first six months of the pandemic. Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City showed evidence of overheating, while Edmonton, Calgary and Regina displayed signs of overbuilding, which could leave the cities with too much housing. Those factors – overheating and overbuilding – in addition to price acceleration and overvaluation are what CMHC assess to determine a housing market’s health. Since late May, home sales across most of the country have been soaring, with buyers seeking bigger spaces and competing fiercely for houses. One of the only weak spots has been the condo market in downtown Toronto. The country’s home price index, which adjusts for expensive purchases, is up 9 per cent from January to November, and resales are on track to reach a record number this year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. CMHC said the tighter market conditions contributed to a rise in home prices in several cities, “beyond what could be justified by the fundamental drivers of house prices such as income and population growth.” In Hamilton and Moncton, the home price index was up 17 per cent in the twelve months to November, according to CREA, as buyers sought properties outside major employment centres such as Toronto and Mississauga. Being able to work from home has allowed homebuyers to leave major cities for Atlantic Canada, Ontario suburbs and vacation areas such as Muskoka in Ontario and Eastern Townships in Quebec. CMHC expects to issue a new forecast next year and will take into account 2020′s surprising jump in sales and prices. In May, shortly after the pandemic temporarily slowed sales, CMHC predicted a significant drop in prices, sales and housing starts. However, that prediction has yet to come to fruition. “The third quarter of this year was very unanticipated in our forecast. We thought that the third quarter was going to be weaker‚” Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, said on a call to discuss the agency’s latest housing-market assessment. The agency observed the same trends realtors and economists have noticed; demand outpacing supply and low mortgage rates driving up prices. Mr. Dugan said the agency was starting to work on its 2021-22 forecast from a “different launch point, with a much stronger level of activity.” The Canadian Real Estate Association is predicting that the average home price will rise 9 per cent next year, in part because of strong competition in Ontario and Quebec. This year, the country’s average home price is expected to reach a record high of $568,000. But Mr. Dugan said there are still risks and headwinds in the housing market, such as the continued rise in COVID-19 cases, restricted activity and economic slowdown. “The second wave is still on us and causing shutdowns and problems across the country,” he said.
As I sit here and write this, I am preparing to fly across the Atlantic, from Ireland to Chicago tomorrow morning. I only found out I would have to do this in the last 24 hours. My older brother has been narcoleptic as long as I can remember (Before he was ever diagnosed I used to induce cataplexy with jokes as a kid to stop him from beating me up, haha) and it has posed all kinds of challenges for him. He has tried many different kinds of treatment, to varying levels of success, and done a lot of his own research. He tried Xyrem when he was younger but the dosage was off (too high I think) and it didn’t work out. He tried a bunch of things in between, but eventually came back to Xyrem after school, with a better plan and dosage and it works incredibly for him. He went from being barely able to function or reach his potential, to now having two degrees in biochemistry and is studying medicine in Chicago, and he is an upstanding man. I’m very proud of him, and this brings me to today. The family has been sending him his Xyrem prescription from home, but the most recent script got caught up in U.S. customs, and despite calling and visiting many different USPS/customs offices it seems not much can be done. He has medical exams this month, so we can’t just leave him without access to life-changing medication. So here’s the problem. You’d think that in an emergency like this, he could just buy some in the USA with the script. He’s a US citizen, he has a diagnosis and a prescription, he’s working and studying in a hospital in the city, and has published scientific narcolepsy research, for what it’s worth. He needs it to successfully achieve what he is there for. But it’s not realistically accessible. A dose of Xyrem that costs around €30 here at home, costs over FIVE THOUSAND DOLLARS in the USA. What the fuck, guys. I won’t pretend to know all the practicalities of how americans with narcolepsy access the medicine, or what insurance pays for it, but no matter how you slice it this basic barrier is unjustifiable. I’m terribly sorry that you in America have a reduced ease of access to this important medication, for no reason beyond a short-sighted, callous, cold, greedy healthcare system. I really could rant about this detail for a long time but I don’t need to get too political and you’ve probably heard it all before. The US is an absolute joke sometimes, though. My heart also goes out to anyone in another country where access to Xyrem is difficult, expensive or restricted. Narcolepsy isn’t easy to live with. From what I’ve seen and been told, Xyrem really does what it’s supposed to, and it should be easily accessible to anybody with a diagnosis and/or prescription in the world IMO. What I see in the US is on par with a corrupt developing nation. Anyway, it’s somehow far cheaper and easier for me to fly to Chicago and back this weekend and just hand-deliver his Xyrem, than it is for him to just walk to the local pharmacy or whatever. It’s a lot of travel on short notice during covid - but to help my brother, that’s of course no problem. Thanks for reading this rant, and to those with difficulty accessing proper medication - stay strong! Edit: Many people have gone into detail in the comments about the difficulties of trying to get insurance to play ball. This sucks also. Anyway, my brother will be fine, and I get a free trip and the chance to visit my brother around Christmas, feel useful, and see a new city. It’s not all bad :)
Atlantic City casinos will soon face fewer restrictions. Gov. Phil Murphy says the state is heading in the right COVID-19 direction. COVID-19 Restrictions on Atlantic City Casinos Extended Another 30 Days. Posted on: January 19, 2021, 01:15h. Last updated on: January 19, 2021, 01:48h. Beginning February 5, the restrictions on the Atlantic City casinos would be loosened and it would be required to follow lesser COVID-19 restrictions. The governor of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy announced that 10pm night curfew of indoor food and beverage service would be lifted and the services ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. >> Atlantic City’s top casino is laying off or cutting the hours of 422 workers in what it says is a direct reaction to strict new indoor dining limits imposed by Gov. Phil ATLANTIC CITY - The gaming floor at Hard Rock Hotel & Casino was abuzz bright and early Thursday morning, signaling the end of a near four-month COVID-19 lockdown for Atlantic City's biggest Atlantic City Casinos Facing More COVID Restrictions Starting Thursday Night 0. By John Brennan on Nov 11, 2020 Brick & Mortar Casino. Facebook; Twitter; The good news for Atlantic City casino gamblers is that Gov. Phil Murphy’s new pandemic-related restrictions do not prevent them from gambling all night. But effective Thursday night, a big hit at the craps table, roulette wheel, or any Atlantic City’s casinos were ordered to shut down on March 16 to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and remained closed for nearly the entire second quarter, resulting in more than $112 million in But these days, with coronavirus cases soaring, New Jersey restrictions forbid late-night dining or serving of alcohol inside the casinos, not to mention sitting at a bar. Atlantic City’s signature 24-hour industry, with assists from online gambling and revamped ventilation systems, is just trying to stay afloat. Tags: Atlantic City, COVID-19, New Jersey Not too long ago, Atlantic City was a thriving gambling hub on the East Coast of the U.S., the main casino epicenter along the Eastern Seaboard. Atlantic City Casinos have been under restrictions due to Covid, including 25% capacity rules. Find out about the prospects of this being lifted.
New York City public schools to shut down as COVID-19 ...
It's National Blood Donor Month, and if you're looking for a way to help during the pandemic, now's your chance. About Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Terms Privacy Policy & Safety How YouTube works Test new features Press Copyright Contact us Creators ... #Air National Guard #Atlantic City #Air Force #177th Fighter Wing #NJANG #COVID-19Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-2333612/Video-Holby-City-explain-filmed-kiss-covid-restrictions.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ito=1490&ns_campaign=1490Vi... It's one of six sites chosen. With coronavirus case rates rising in a number of states, some local officials are trying to hold back the surge by pausing reopening or requiring mask use i... Atlantic City Chamber of Commerce hosts town hall Q&A with AtlantiCare on COVID-19 vaccine Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Wednesday the nation’s largest school district will close again, as several other states also reimpose restrictions. WATCH THE... Mayor of Mossyrock, Wash., which is in Lewis County south Chehalis, acknowledges that the city doesn't have the authority to ignore the state's order. But ci... San Marcos could be the next city to challenge state COVID-19 restrictions
