The gambler’s fallacy should not be confused with its opposite, the hot hand fallacy. This heuristic bias is the mistaken belief that, for random independent events, the more frequently an outcome has occurred in the recent past, the greater is the likelihood of that outcome in the future. This bias in judgment was named after basketball fans’ perceptions of players with “hot hands.” A Conjunction Fallacy. Refers to individuals’ tendency to rely primarily on either external or internal frames of referece when orienting themselves in space. Field dependence-independence. The belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event hasn’t occurred recently. Gambler’s fallacy Gambler’s fallacy can also occur in some instances where past events are related to future outcomes. An example of this would be a tennis player. If he has to play 24 matches, out of which he has won 12 matches and lost 6, and is now left to play 6 more matches, and now, if one makes the assumption that the losing streak makes him due for a victory in his next match, one would be indulging Chapter 8 AP Psychology. STUDY. Flashcards. Learn. Write. Spell. Test. PLAY. Match. Gravity. Created by. KrisFig. Terms in this set (42) Acculturation. the degree to which a person is socially and psychologically integrated into a new culture . Acquisition. the formation of a new conditioned response tendency. algorithm. a methodical, step by step procedure for trying all possible alternatives as the gambler’s fallacy—the belief that, for random events, runs of a particular outcome (e.g., heads on the toss of a coin) will be balanced by a tendency for the op-posite outcome (e.g., tails). Early experiments in probability learning empirically confirmed the reality of this bias in tasks where subjects were asked to predict the next outcome in a series of ran-dom binary alternatives gambler's fallacy is commonly interpreted as deriving from a fallacious belief in the "law of small numbers" or "local representativeness": people believe that a small sample should resem-ble closely the underlying population, and hence believe that heads and tails should balance even in small samples. On the other hand, people also sometimes predict that random sequences will exhibit The gambler's fallacy. the belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event hasn't occurred recently (related to the representative heuristic) The law of small numbers. the expectation that information obtained from a small number of people represents the larger population. overestimating the improbable. tendency to overestimate the likelihood of dramatic ( and infrequent) events The gambler's fallacy is the belief that the chances of something happening with a fixed probability, i.e., rolling 10 even dice in a row, become higher or lower as the process is repeated. The The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a coin. With a fair coin the chances of getting heads are exactly 0.5 (a half). The chances of it coming up heads twice in a row are 0.5×0.5=0.25 (a quarter). The probability of three heads in a row is 0.5×0.5×0.5= 0.125 (an eighth) and so on. Psychology Cheat Sheets AP Psychology Ch.6-10 Cheat Sheet Cheat Sheet by MelissaM021004 Cheatsheet for chapter 6-10 of AP Psychology I accidentally put a block twice, sorry :(
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