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Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
  1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
  2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
  1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
submitted by jinxking0p5 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

BetOnline Review, My Review for Reddit

Yo guys, I know a lot of you are wondering if BetOnline is a) a legit gambling site and b) is BetOnline safe?
Well, I joined a year or so ago and I’ve actually made a decent amount of money out of it (not gonna lie, I haven’t made a great amount but I’m not an all-star gambler, I just do it for the fun).
Anyhow, I decided to put together a little BetOnline review for the Reddit community because this place has given me a lot of help over the years with other stuff.
So for what it’s worth, here’s my 2 cents regarding BETONLINE:
Is BetOnline legit?
Yes. It’s been around since 2002. It’s also legal in all U.S. states. Perfectly safe, no need to worry about depositing money with your credit card. As I said, I’ve been using it for over a year and had absolutely no issues
Good sportsbook?
BetOnline is a very good sportsbook for American sports. Some international sports are offered but the focus is primarily on the likes of NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB.
Banking options?
Very varied. As well as credit and debit card, you can fund your account with Skrill, Bitcoin and LiteCoin (among others). Strangely, PayPal isn’t an option
Also, it’s a bit frustrating that you have to stump up a 6% deposit fee if you use your card. I don’t think any other gambling site charges such a fee! s
Free plays?
BetOnline occasionally offer free plays to gamblers. I’ve had a couple. They’re ok but a bit of a pain in the ass in the sense that you have to meet wagering requirements before you can even withdraw any winnings. And the rollover rate seems a bit arbitrary
Payout process?
Slow (but that’s the case with most gambling sites apparently. It takes over a week for the funds to arrive in your bank account but it’s faster if you use an eWallet. Something to think about)
Other than that, you’ve just gotta be patient with the payout process. It bothered me at first but I honestly don’t think about it anymore. And to be honest I usually just leave most of winnings in my BetOnline account anyway and use them to fund more gambling
Customer service?
Slow. Again, you’ll need lots of patience if you’ve got a question
BetOnline cheating?
Yeah, this is a weird one. There were accusations that BetOnline had done some strange stuff in the past (and I looked into it and things like confiscating winnings is apparently true) … but apparently they’ve also cleaned up their act. And honestly nothing like that has ever happened to me.
Conclusion of my BetOnline review
I like BetOnline and I do recommend it, but it’s not the number 1 U.S. gambling site IMO. I prefer Bovada but it’s always a good idea to open a few accounts with different sites.
submitted by highrollerdude7 to casualgambling [link] [comments]

[Table] IAmA pro poker player with over $3 Million in online winnings, been in Time Magazine and on Good Morning America for Poker

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2012-04-18
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Link to my post
Questions Answers
You're about to die. There is an amateur poker player sitting right next to you. You decide that your final words will encompass the most important thing you have learned throughout your years of pro poker. WHAT ARE YOUR FINAL WORDS??? Tldr: gimme some good poker tips. 1st off, your screenname is priceless...This one's an easy one for me though. Never let your ego get in the way of continuing to try and learn as much as you can about the game. Too many players hit a point where they start to win and then refuse to admit they can always learn more. I call this the game over point lol.
Can you loan me a few hundred bucks? my tv just shit the bed. You take Full Tilt transfers?
Does that eventually translate to real cash lol, Haha we can only pray.
I wish this wasn't a joke. A friend of mine won an FTOPS event a few days before they were raided and hadn't withdrawn in months. Sigh, yea I know...I just try and use humor not to punch holes in walls.
Can I ask how much did you lose when FT went tits up? I didn't get killed very badly, I was taking some time off poker so had a good chunk of my online roll off the sites. I was saying in an earlier post I was with a buddy who had about 200k online at the time when we found out the shit hit the fan. Never thought I'd see someone get that emotional, but clearly understandable. :/
Are you the Jason Lee that recently got signed to Lock Poker? I would be that same Jason Lee.
I assume that you would recommend this site to US players as opposed to bovada and the like? As this a merge skin, how confident should US players be about depositing mobnies on this site. I cant stand Bovada btw. Yea, I actually never even got on Bovada because I just heard the most tilting stories about it. I'm personally very confident with my money on Lock, and not just saying that because I'm one of their pros. The upper management there actually cares about their players and is constantly looking to improve the customer experience. This is something I respect a lot about them.
I only have money on Bovada....well I do have a few hundo still on Full Tilt...those fucks. If you're interested in moving over, shoot me a PM before you get on, I get some special perks I can offer people that create accounts.
Pretty much....I actually laughed at the customer service rep that I talked to, said, "you fuckin kidding me" and hung up. Yea, I had a buddy that just posted a blog about that jacking a bunch of cash from him as well. I'd be scared playing on a site that it's sister site (Blow-dog)'s domain just got appropriated by the DOJ.
Are you still living in the states playing online or have you moved eslewhere? Been literally bouncing all over the place as of late, but all in the states. I'm currently doing this Reddit from Vegas. Seems like a decent place to be? lol Most of my friends went to Canada, Costa Rica and a few to Panama and Thailand.
How hard is it to do your taxes? The first year I did them it was hell because I didn't stay on top of keeping records and had to retro go back and do everything. Since then I learned my lesson and stayed on top of keeping records. Its still annoying though every year when everyone is talking about getting their returns and I'm writing a check to Uncle Sam.
But you get to write off your losses, right? I'd imagine that good records are very important. Does the IRS keep a special watch on pro gamblers for audit purposes? Seems like one of those professions that would be red flagged by them. Yea, and they actually changed the legislation this year that if you have a net losing year, you can actually roll those loses into future years...a.k.a lose 10k this year, make 100k next...only pay taxes on 90k.
Most money you've ever lost in one pot? Don't play a tooooon of cash games, so prolly only a few thousand in that department. The biggest tournament I've played and busted was a 20k buyin in France. I had lots of beers after that one.
only a few thousand in that department. That'd pay my rent and feed me for half a year. Fair as fuck :) Hah, yea...I try not to get greedy like some players. I'm happy when I lose $1 and mad when I lose .01. lol.
How much vanished into the Full Tilt black hole? Any funds lost on the evil twins aka UB/AP? I actually didn't get killed as much as a lot of my friends because it was during my 8 month hiatus from the game last year so I didn't have a ton on there. I had some friends though that had a couple hundred k on there and was with them when they found out it all went bye bye. Let's just say I saw a lot of people get a lot more emotional than I ever expected to see them get.
I'll go for the classic question... how much of poker is strategy, and how much is luck? And what can a player do when their luck sucks? Oldie but a goodie (I heard an old person say that once lol)...I'd say if I had to put numbers on it, about 65% skill, 30% luck and 5% how much the poker gods love you. These numbers I think against worse players move to 70-75% skill because you're able to read them better and push them around more effectively. I will never deny though that there definitely is a luck factor involved, its just not the predominant factor in determining who wins and who loses.
How do you distinguish between luck and the poker gods? I'm an atheist, but if praying to the poker gods can give me a 5% edge, I'll take it. If you can maximize what you win with the best hands and minimize what you lose with the worst, that I consider skill. Actually getting the best and worst hands, thats the luck part. Also getting it in as a big favorite = skill, losing as a big favorite=luck.
I'm no pro, but I've always said that in poker skill is what helps you get lucky, would that be adequate? Ehhh, when you need to get lucky is usually only when you get your money in bad, so technically it would be something only happening when you're playing less than optimally. However, it would be adequate to say that a skilled player will take better advantage of hitting a miracle card or getting lucky.
Is it true that the key to winning is just winning a little bit, then leaving the table? Def disagree with this. A lot of people after they see me win a pot are like ooooo take that cash and run. The thing is, if you're in a good game, you should stay in that game as long as you're playing well and the game stays a good game. I also think I play a lot better when I'm winning, so I will def keep playing.
I'm mainly a tournament guy so they usually don't let me leave after I win a pot :P.
How about online poker? What do you think? If I'm having a bad day, I'll unregister from the rest of my tournaments so I can proceed to ram my head into the wall. But I feel like its the same as live, if you're playing well and in a good game; stay in it. If people are willing to give cash away, stay and take it :)
What do you think is the major difference between online and real life poker? I reallllly like online because I'm about as ADD as they come. I usually play 10-20 tables at once, mainly to keep my mind busy and keep me from doing anything stupid and playing too many hands. This is the biggest difference I see.
As per strategy wise, live players love to call more (and bigger) 3 bets preflop ~ they just refuse to not defend here, the blinds usually defend a lot more live as well, raise sizes usually need to be bigger live to accomplish the same annnndd.....those are the main differences that pop into my mind.
You can of course also see your opponent to allow for making more reads and they make me wear pants live :(
We need to get you some Adderall. You would be unstoppable! Lol, used it before...I think I was the definition of "dialed in".
What do you mean by defend. Basically when you raise someone's blind and they choose to not fold and fight you in the pot with a mediocre to bad holding they might normally fold, this is called defending. Usually its to send you a message to stop 3 betting them or stop stealing their blinds.
Hell of a story man, I get the same feel when I go mini-golfing with my BROS and on the 18th hole the ball just floats, time stops, my mind goes numb, and it just sinks right in for a hole in one. Then I'm like FREE ROUND BITCHES. I enjoy playing 10-2 off-suit in low buyin games just to fuck with people, you should try that for me someday. I hope you're comfortable because I've been waiting for a pro poker player for a long time now, I ain't goin anywhere. If you could play poker with any 5 people (living or dead, fictional or real), who would they be? Great question... outside of just saying EVERYONE of the business men playing in the huge Macau game...if it were purely a social game Superman, The Devil, Ivey, Dwan and Howard Lederer...the first 4 to challenge myself since its a fun game, and Howard to punch in the face.
Yeah fuck him, I used to have a Full Tilt account and that could have been my money. Need my money for taco bell 5 buck boxes and also other things. Do you gamble much on non-skill games? Or any games involving a house advantage? The best was right after all this shit last year, his wife tried to release her own jewelry line at the WSOP. I reaaaalllllly wanted to go up and just request my jewelry since it was clearly paid for with a bunch of our cash.
Do you think that in 2011/2012 the online games have got a lot tougher to beat? How far can you go with ABC poker online? What level can you beat with this technique? Is playing multitable with reasonably good regs profitable at high levels? 1- I think the low to mid stakes online have actually gotten considerably easier. A lot of the serious low to mid stakes grinders ended up moving on to other things leaving a bit of a vacuum at these stakes. I think the higher stakes have gotten a bit more difficult with a lot of the fish exiting the market. They are slowly returning though from my observations. 2- I honestly think pretty straight forward ABC can beat almost any level of poker. My deepest live run at the EPT Villamoura stop, I literally played straight forward ABC for all 6 days. No crazy bluffs, no wild floats etc etc, just played my cards optimally and made solid reads. Everyone else got out of line and paid when I had it. There are a few adjustments you can occasionally make - getting more aggressive on the bubble, stealing some blinds when the antes kick in, but for the most part the ABC can beat all levels. 4- Profitability defffffinetly goes way down when you start playing with all regs. I still think there are a lot of regs that are profitable that have leaks that can be exploited. I'm pretty positive I have leaks that can be exploited as well. So to answer the question, yes they can be profitable but definitely tougher to beat.
Has your game been impacted by becoming well known? I have heard every donk on the table wants to felt the big name pro so if it's true, how do you adapt to that? Its interesting, because I never really experienced this until very very recently. As per being known at live tournaments, I get noticed and recognized a lot less than some people might expect. They usually just look at me and go, "oh look some crazy internet kid," just because I'm young, pale and have zero sense of style :)
The crazy part is since I signed with Lock and they made my screenname highlighted in red on there, I feel like a baby goat in a sea of wolves. I have NEVER had people try and make plays and bluff me as much as I'm experiencing on there. It's increased so much that I've had to make strategic adjustments to how I play.
I basically always tell people I want to play opposite of everyone else. If everyone is going to try and bluff me and run over me every pot, I choose to just sit back, pick up a hand and let them bluff off the world to me. It's nice to almost always get action on hands, it is a bit more boring though. Winning poker isn't always "fun poker" lol.
$3 million in winnings? Feeling charitable? :D. Haha, as of late I've been gladly donating back to the community, not by choice though lol.
Story? Not a super eventful one; just on a bit of a downswing. Nothing huge, I just always get annoyed when I don't win.
Oh I thought your neighbouring community I didn't get it as the ''Poker Community'' ! I thought you had gone nuts with that money and somewhat landed in trouble that required you to pay back to the community. Hah, I am a bit of a wild one at times, but thankfully no on that...so far.
Does phil Hellmuth really bitch about every hand or is that some gimmick? I actually did a TV show with Phil a few years ago, here's a link to an article about it.
Best Damn Poker Show
Basically, I asked Phil this question directly. His response was basically, he does get upset when people do moronic things but a lot of the over the top reactions are aimed at branding himself as the Poker Brat. Everyone loves to hate someone, and also loves to see what they're going to do next. This is pretty much what he's shooting for which I understand and thinks is prolly business smart, just a lot to deal with if you're the one getting berated.
3 or 4 bet Hellmuth and he will get pissed. You'd be surprised how often if you give someone shit for 3 or 4 betting how often they'll never do it as a bluff again.
Is Bellande's twitter not the most comical poker twitter feed going or what? I mean who is that guys backer? haha. Lol, I don't follow him but definitely going to check it out. I actually hammered one night in Canada at the NAPT jokingly tried to trade my gf at the time for a rack of chips from him. I was joking of course but apparently she didn't find the humor. Maybe this is the reason I'm single now lol.
Dude, check it out. Its hilarious. He's def getting a new follower.
Why do you play under a recognizable screenname online? Doesn't it make you more of a target/predictable? I think when I started playing, I had dreams of being a notable player, someone people recognized. Not so much to be a fame whore, but more for validation that I truly made it in the industry. It's def a lot easier to brand yourself this way if there is congruency in who you are everywhere.
From a direct dollar making stand point though, different screennames is probably +ev.
Makes sense. I'll prolly stick with the same screennames/image for the rest of time. I've started expanding my poker career into teaching, writing and some other aspects to make money outside of just playing. I also don't really mind if I lose a little bit of EV to help advance the other poker related endeavors.
Considering your skill, at what point do you imagine letting go of the pro image to make money anonymously? Do you not already have multiple accounts for this? There are also some perks to knowing people think they know how you normally play. It allows you to take some unconventional lines some times because you know people think they know how you always play things. (If that made sense lol)
Also, pokerstars or fulltilt (or other)? No multiple accounts for this guy, JaspudUF till I die :)
I like your integrity. Thanks for answering my questions! Of course, hope the info helps some :)
Ever splash the pot? Every chance I get :)
What would you advise to anyone looking to use Poker as a source of income in the future? How often do you play? Biggest Win? McDonalds or KFC? I would say make sure that you truly are being honest with yourself about being a winner or a loser at the game. So many people tell me they beat the game and when we sit down and actually look at numbers, they're lieing to themselves. If you do find you are winning consistently, make sure its enough to sustain your desired life and more importantly you have a cushion in case of an inevitable bad run. I prolly play 3-4 days a week, I used to obsessively play 6-7 days a week but I think that was not good for the health.
KFC if I'm running good, McDonalds after a bad session. No questions asked there haha.
What are your other hobbies? I'm a gym rat, I kickbox and do jui-jitsu (although I havent in a few months since I've been traveling a lot :/ Reddit and internet humor have become amazing hobbies as of late lol and my number 1 hobby is actually people watching. I love the nonverbal communication/psychology side of poker and life, and just chilling trying to study what people are thinking amuses the hell out of me.
I actually have to tell girls on dates that when I'm constantly staring over there shoulders at other people its not because I dont enjoy their company but just obsessed with people watching. lol.
Such a romantic! I need to hit the gym. When I'm much older I think instead of jigsaw building and wetting myself I will take up Poker. At the moment money isn't available to piss away. For non money games I have been good online, however I think I would be awful under pressure. My buddies grandma just came into town and she might be the biggest gamblecard player I've ever met in my life. If I tried to make her do a jigsaw puzzle, she'd ask me how much I want to play for per piece. Def a mind stimulating game.
What are you planning to play at the WSOP this year? How many events? I cant wait to watch the "Drop in the Bucket" tourney. Im surprised Ivey hasnt confirmed yet....I realize he has a lot of shit goin on with FT and his divorce and shit. That Drop in the Bucket tourney will be insane if it runs. I hear a few rumors that even though they have a bunch of confirmed players, no ones put the cash down yet. I can't confirm this but its what I'm hearing. As per me, I'm going to try and play as many of the hold em events as possible. I took last summer off and am completely drooling waiting to play this year.
I always try and get backing for the series, which I haven't yet started looking into this year but that usually helps dictate how much I'm going to play. I paid for the series myself one year and frankly the potential swings on that are huge and very few players are anywhere close to properly bankrolled for these tourneys.
The series is the most fun time of the year but its also for about 95% of the players, the most frustrating time of the year. You get so excited about the potential of the cash and a bracelet and then if you don't prevail, its tough to pick yourself up and come back the next day for more of a pounding lol.
Do you remember a few years ago, theres was this dude from NY a few years ago that had a blog on Pokerroad that would go ape shit on his blog after he busted from a WSOP prelim? I cant remember his name but it was hilarious. Joe Sebok supplied with a cam to record that shit. Lol, I don't but if you find a link to it, please post...I love watching people tilt haha.
Theres only a few dudes that are rolled for that Drop in a Bucket...Guy Laliberte, a few Asian businessmen, and that dude that owns a few casinos in vegas. Yea sooooooo few people are rolled for that. I've heard that they're going to run regional satellites but haven't seen any links or anything. I'm going to choose not to play that one, unless someone gives me a milly to play it. I won't say no :)
This dude Eugene Todd theres a few on there...if you can find the pokerroad blogs...they are epic. Lol, I just watched about 45 seconds of the intro to his new show. I think I'm somehow on tilt already.
Do you play for fun or just for the money? Also, what's the most you've ever won in a day? I actually do play for fun quite a bit with friends; I almost always lose when I play for fun too lol...When I'm playing to make money, I still love the game and the adrenaline rush accompanied. I stopped loving it for a while last year and got burnt out and immediately took like 8 months off. Best move ever...My largest score was $240k for a 3rd place in an EPT. I guess technically that's 6 days but still my biggest win.
So you won that $240k..what % did you have to pay in taxes? What was your net from that $240k? I was backed in the event; so half of it went to the backers right away. I was in whatever the higher tax bracket was that year, so the taxes on that were rough. The toughest part some card players deal with is taxes aren't always immediately withheld on winnings, so you have to put money aside for when it's time to pay taxes. I have some friends that have won tournaments, spent all the money and come tax time had to figure something out to be able to cover the bill to Uncle Sam.
I would imagine winning the $8.8M 1st prize in the Main Event, they net around $5?M after paying 30-40% in taxes? I'm lucky that my parents stayed involved in my life the past few years to inform me of these things before I also went and did something stupid like that. I try my hardest to share this info with my friends, it occasionally sinks in.
What's the most amazing poker hand you've ever been in? Someone asked this earlier and I couldnt think of an answer, but I think I've thought of one that amused me quite a bit. When I did Good Morning America, we spent a good amount of time teaching George Stephanopoulos the basics of tournament poker. He was definitely a beginner but seemed to be picking up things pretty quickly.
The tournament we ended up playing was a super turbo so things were moving pretty quickly. The gist of the hand was George actually limp trapped me with Queens and owned me on national television. Now, with stack sizes and all it wasn't an amazing trap or anything but I just found it hilarious that he came up with a decent move himself and was able to bust me. I was half proud and half blah lol.
What kind of stakes do you play online? Prior to Black Friday, I would try and play the biggest tourneys they had online and was able to get enough volume with those. Since Black Friday, there are still some good higher buy-in tournaments but not quite enough to fulfill my ADD requirements so I find myself playing everything from the highest buyins down to even playing $20 tournaments.
Cash is cash, even making a lot of money I still get happy when I win $1. Its a perspective I hope to ALWAYS hold on to.
Do you think that poker as a game has peaked? If not, when do you think this will happen? Do you think you could re-create your success starting today from zero? Do you think that online is much harder to win at than live? How many hours a day do you play? I dont think its peaked, I think when things go all out in the states with legislation we're gonna see an explosion. I think I could, all it is is a willingness to learn, hard work and dedication. All you really need outside of that is emotional control and I think there might be some form of x factor to it. I think 1 game vs 1 game, online can be tougher, but the ability to multi table allows you to severely cut down on your variance and I think make more in the long run. When I play, usually 8-10 hrs...I've played as much as 37 before though lol I guess technically that wouldn't be in one day. After that sesh, you could have convinced me it was though.
What have you done with your winnings? Done a poor job of saving my winnings but a great job of spending it :) Basically, lived "the life", partied, caused trouble etc etc. Trying to change that this year. Practice and read everything you can get your hands on.
Thanks. :) Out of your winnings, after tax and stakes how much are you at? I think there's always the dream of millions for players but taxes must hurt..:( Taxes are never the fun part haha, I'm not sure exactly where this falls...I'll see if I can pull up records later today and give you a stronger idea of the impact there.
How long did it take for you to become a pro? How did your family/close ones take to you playing excessively? Well... - Started playing when my friends invited me to a home game in college. I was officially the worst lol - After that, I played pretty much every day and read anything and everything I could get my hands on. I think it was maybe like a year later that I started making some dollars and maybe 6 months past that I decided to look at making it a full time gig. - Great question here...I came from a super straight laced, military family. If you can imagine how the phrase of "I want to gamble for a living" went over, it was rough at first. Luckily my parents were somewhat open to the thought of it and basically said, we'll support it as long as you can prove its a viable career and you can sustain a living at it.
How long did it take for you to become a winning player? Where did you mainly play online? Did/do you use good bankroll management? About a year into learning and playing I started actually making positive cash flow. Thankfully before that I stayed playing pretty low so I didn't really lose much. - I used to play predominately on Stars, Tilt and UB. Way back in the day it was Paradise. Now a days, exclusively at Lock. - Its funny, about 99% of my career I have except for my first decent score. I had $120 bucks online and put $60 bucks into a $30 rebuy (oops lol). Ended up cashing for about 3k I think it was and post that returned to being a good boy for the most part in the BR management department.
Best fold you have ever made? Best call? Is it "better" to make a wrong call, or the wrong laydown? Fave hand that you have seen on TV? Best and worst TV pro? Fave and least fave TV pro? The problem with "the best fold you ever made" is you never really know unless your opponent shows you...there are times I was pretty sure I made a rockstar lay down but can't really be sure... They always say its better to make an incorrect fold than a bad call, it costs you less. I think personally a mistake is a mistake and all should be treated the same in your mind (from a learning stand point).
Best TV pro is prolly Ivey...and worst is everyone that's cocky... especially players that go deep in 1 event and immediately start talking about how they're the greatest thing since sliced bread. I'll refrain from mentioning names to avoid the awkward situations lol My fav pros to watch are either my friends or players that are better than me so I can not only be entertained but also learn at the same time.
What's your reading recommendation to get into online poker? I want to prepare now that online gambling is legal. Do you mean in regards to strategy or the logistics of getting back on?
Well, you've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run. You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table, there'll be time enough for countin' When the dealin's done. I still randomly sing this at the table :)
Strategies. I know for online there are software programs that measure certain metrics, like how likely the person will fold for certain card combination. I'm a newb.. I want to understand how to analyze the card probabilities & apply user playing history to gain an edge. What's the best book to learn this? Honestly, the best way to win online is just to have strong fundamentals. It sounds like an answer thats "too easy to be true" but in reality, majority of the players you encounter online are really bad and will make mistakes for you. I play more ABC poker than most people would probably expect. I rarely run crazy bluffs or anything like that, unless I'm bored, feel like being a moron or have had a few adult beverages :)
No real question here, just wanted to say thanks for doing the AMA. I've been waiting to hear from a pro poker player for awhile now. Best of luck! Edit: Actually I lied! How do you/any pro players you know, feel about shows like Daniel's "million dollar challenge"? Do you think it hurts the image of poker at all, or helps? Thanks :) Of course, I'm really enjoying it :) Glad to see people are reading and also enjoying.
How did you get started in terms of bankroll nursing? At what point did you feel you could make a living off it? I literally started with $1 tournaments for quite a while and was able to grind it up to like $120 (back in the day on Paradise). I decide one day that taking half of my bank roll and playing a $30 rebuy would be a great idea (I do not recommend this lol). I ended up getting like 6th or 7th for a few thousand. I was in college at the time and a few k, makes you rich haha. About a week later, I final tabled the same tournament for a few thousand more and then started grinding the low low buy-in multis. Blessed with a little run good, here we are today.
It was basically about 6-8 months after those scores that I really started to think there was a possibility I could do it for a living. It was about 1 year after those tournaments that I really seriously began doing it full time.
Thanks! I'll keep grinding then :)). Are you going the the EPT grand final btw? Probably not hitting many of the EPT's this year. That flight from the States is always brutal. I'm enjoying traveling a little less this year. At least thats what I always say and then I end up traveling a ton lol.
Besides you, Daniel Negreanu is one of my favorite poker players. How is he to play against? Is there a person that you seem to either always have trouble with or have bad luck playing against? Well thank you :P Negreanu is definitely a tough player to play against. I think there a lot of other players that have equal the reading skills, but just choose not to vocalize it. It's the worst feeling in the world when someone pegs your hand exactly and lets you know.
There are definitely people that have basically owned my soul in the past. The funny part is its never a well known pro or anything like that. Its usually some guy or girl that seems to be absolutely clueless at the table. This has happened A LOT lol Nothing gets close to tilting more than when this happens. I usually just ask them if they just want me to give them the passwords to my bank accounts.
Last updated: 2012-04-22 13:36 UTC
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